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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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Just now, jpeters3 said:

Ok, I will be nicer.

I was feeling a bit defensive of the person they jumped on because they were only responding (in good fun) to my suggestion for guesses.

all good, friend. thanks for your red tagger thoughts, by the way!

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TWC actually doing some good for once... They are showing the surge level potential integrated on Google Maps, on air.

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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

TWC actually doing some good for once... They are showing the surge level potential integrated on Google Maps, on air.

They've been doing pretty good all day. have had them on since around 830 this morning.

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by my count I get roughly 65-70 lightning strikes per hour in the core.  Anyone got any better data on this?

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Outflow is improving still in the western half of the hurricane.  Northern outflow channel developing (poleward).  A huge outflow channel developing on the south side (equatorward).

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A friend from the Air Force he discharged just before I did almost eight years ago now, and he lives in Lafayette, LA.  He is prepared and said his city is evacuated!

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Big hot tower just went up in the Northern eyewall. Wonder if recon just missed it or if that's where the FL cat 5 winds are.

PpIDrRb.jpg

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Just now, Nibor said:

Latest Euro slightly weakens on approach, won't do enough to limit destruction.

It also initialized at 973mb. I realize that was 6 hours ago but it hasn't dropped over 20mb since 12z.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Big hot tower just went up in the Northern eyewall. Wonder if recon just missed it or if that's where the FL cat 5 winds are.

PpIDrRb.jpg

by my very rough eye comparison, it looks like their flight path went just to the east of that hot tower edge

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There's still some asymmetry evident in the core. I bet the storm sees greater pressure falls than wind increases from here on out. Pressure is high for a 120kt storm and my guess is that the storm tries to develop a more coherent SE eyewall, creating better symmetry and allowing pressures to "catch up" to the winds through landfall.

 

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1 hour ago, burrel2 said:

140 knots at 930mb on that eyewall drop!

Where's the guy that simply said "No" when someone asked if there was a chance this storm could hit Cat 5 status this morning? lol

That was me...

(where is the Picard facepalm meme when you need it...) :facepalm:

EDIT by jburns.  Here you go.

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Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

 

 


That is roughly 4-500ft above the surface, won't take much to mix down

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

 

Lake Charles has two buildings taller than 300ft. Wonder if any of them have weather stations on the roof.

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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

I mean there's always stronger winds aloft...

Even if you did a 90% reduction from the 940mb observation of 140kts you still get 125kts which is 5kts stronger than the last advisory.

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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

Laura is starting to look like a Category 4. The structure and appearance on visual is a first for my memory in this area of the NW GOM. Rita was of course becoming a ragged mess. Andrew also became ragged towards the LA central parishes. Ike was an eye-shrouded blobular behemoth at this location. Perhaps we have to go back as far as Major Hurricane Alicia to find such a good-looking satellite presentation by a TC in that region of the GOM.

No, you only need go back exactly three years ago to Hurricane Harvey. Which was then located in the GOM about 200 miles to the SW of where Laura is now, and was building into an imminent high Cat 4 landfall.

The parallels between the two TCs are increasing by the hour.

nwstae_twitter_harvey.gif

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Even if you did a 90% reduction from the 940mb observation of 140kts you still get 125kts which is 5kts stronger than the last advisory.

The jet is usually like 500m off the surface. Its consistent with typical eyewall profiles. You always go up categories off the surface. 

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

The jet is usually like 500m off the surface. Its consistent with typical eyewall profiles. You always go up categories off the surface. 

Yes I can think of a few recent storms where the surface winds never really caught up with the winds aloft. In this case though, we're talking about a few hundred feet above the surface. 

Even if the storm never reaches cat 5 intensity, still going to have potential for cat 5 gusts.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Yes I can think of a few recent storms where the surface winds never really caught up with the winds aloft. In this case though, we're talking about a few hundred feet above the surface. 

Even if the storm never reaches cat 5 intensity, still going to have potential for cat 5 gusts.

I mean yeah a cat 4 would have cat 5 gusts. 

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Curious...some are saying the shear isn't going to do much to this storm whatsoever due to it's strength(?) if I'm reading this correctly. That...doesn't bode well for the Houston area correct? The shear is what was supposed to turn the storm North, is this right?

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Is the eye actually contracting or is it just an illusion from mesovortices and storm tops from the hot towers in the eyewall?

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No, you only need go back exactly three years ago to Hurricane Harvey. Which was then located in the GOM about 200 miles to the SW of where Laura is now, and was building into an imminent high Cat 4 landfall.
The parallels between the two TCs are increasing by the hour.
nwstae_twitter_harvey.gif&key=4d1e78b8771a717645bd6ee2abbef25bac80169e7572fa34b2f17351d9c58b3a
For some reason geographically speaking in my mind I think of Harvey as a purely Western GOM hurricane but I suppose semantics. That is still the NWGOM so good catch. Still, Laura is heading into a stretch of GOM that has not seen a Cat 4 since early last century.
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