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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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An absolute catastrophe in the making. The surge coming in close to high tide makes it even more devastating. I hope everyone in surge prone areas evacuated. Sending prayers to you all in the affected areas. 

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3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I am sorry, the wind shear does not seem like it will be a factor in weakening this monster of a hurricane.  Cirrus outflow continues to improve and expand in the western circulation.  Also water vapor, IR and visible imagery suggests that the trough over Texas is weakening or moving away from Laura as her upper level flow pushes the weaker systems away from the circulation of the hurricane.  The pressure of 963 mb had flight level winds over 130 knots.  Pressure is likely sub 949mb

If there’s shear that starts just before landfall, it will make very little difference in terms of impact. Maybe there’s some chance at getting lucky with the EWRC roulette game. 

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Just now, jm1220 said:

If there’s shear that starts just before landfall, it will make very little difference in terms of impact. Maybe there’s some chance at getting lucky with the EWRC roulette game. 

No signs of ERC onset yet...needs to happen fast, as we are 12-13 hours out from LF.

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Just now, wxeyeNH said:

Please don't post irresponsibly like 928/162  or guessing what the storm might or might not be.  Read more and post less as this thread is very busy.  Take banter to the other thread.  If your not a Met or your knowledge of tropical meteorology is limited just read and watch

Go poop on somebody else's parade.  There is room for a little bit of responsible fun here.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No signs of ERC onset yet...needs to happen fast, as we are 12-13 hours out from LF.

The closer it gets, the less likely it is as the orientation of the coast is ideal for tightening the core a bit. 

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Hwrf and HMON both show the rapid deepening stabilizing in the next 3 hours at a nadir of close to 940 mb, and then essentially steady state or slight pressure rises up until landfall. 

Both models and especially the HWRF has been very good at consistently showing the explosive deepening and strengthening that we have been witnessing over the last 12 hours. They've been showing this progression for a couple days and also with a consistently accurate landfall location. Impressive modeling.

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I am sorry, the wind shear does not seem like it will be a factor in weakening this monster of a hurricane.  Cirrus outflow continues to improve and expand in the western circulation.  Also water vapor, IR and visible imagery suggests that the trough over Texas is weakening or moving away from Laura as her upper level flow pushes the weaker systems away from the circulation of the hurricane.  The pressure of 963 mb had flight level winds over 130 knots.  Pressure is likely sub 949mb
Potential shear would be under the cirrus canopy due to the storm's relative motion versus 450-250 hPa flow that could impinge Laura's core near landfall, but this isn't guaranteed as that flow may not reach Laura until landfall has already occurred. 250 to 200 hPa flow looks favorable for continued intensification through landfall however. If mid-level shear does make an impact, it could advect some drier air. But we've only got 13 hours left to go here. Even at leveling off to a steady state, Laura probably makes landfall near peak intensity unfortunately.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No signs of ERC onset yet...needs to happen fast, as we are 12-13 hours out from LF.

It likely already completed a merging EWRC today. I think that's why we have since seen the eyewall restrict some and deepening continuing. Not sure if we would get a traditional EWRC at some point but seems unlikely given the lack of a secondary wind maxima. 

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

It likely already completed a merging EWRC today. I think that's why we have since seen the eyewall restrict some and deepening continuing. Not sure if we would get a traditional EWRC at some point but seems unlikely given the lack of a secondary wind maxima. 

Even if one were to occur, can't really do much about the inevitable surge. 

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1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

Even if one were to occur, can't really do much about the inevitable surge. 

If anything, while a secondary wind maxima might temporarily reduce the maximum winds in the inner eyewall, it would also spread the wind field out even more than it already is.

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5 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

Go poop on somebody else's parade.  There is room for a little bit of responsible fun here.

to be fair, the poster who made that guess should have added context to it. i agree though, making guesses is fine. just be clear with the values you are posting so others don't get confused. 

and be nicer ;) 

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Just now, cptcatz said:

2PM NHC: 140 mph, 952 mb

Nailed it lol.

My final prediction is 135kts at landfall and I pray that I am wrong.

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4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If there’s shear that starts just before landfall, it will make very little difference in terms of impact. Maybe there’s some chance at getting lucky with the EWRC roulette game. 

Given the lack of a coherent signal in the models for weakening, I think it's prudent to go with the assumption that it won't be weakening as it approaches landfall.  Even if it does, it won't be nearly enough nor fast enough.  The fate is already being written in terms of storm surge. 

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Nailed it lol.

My final prediction is 135kts at landfall and I pray that I am wrong.

were you dead on??? wow.

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

to be fair, the poster who made that guess should have added context to it. i agree though, making guesses is fine. just be clear with the values you are posting so others don't get confused. 

and be nicer ;) 

Ok, I will be nicer.

I was feeling a bit defensive of the person they jumped on because they were only responding (in good fun) to my suggestion for guesses.

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140 knots at 930mb on that eyewall drop!

Where's the guy that simply said "No" when someone asked if there was a chance this storm could hit Cat 5 status this morning? lol

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