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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

How do you see the lightning occurring in it now?

You can load lightning data on the weather.cod.edu site.  To do so:

1.) Select a sector: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-W_Gulf_Coast-truecolor-24-0-100-1&checked=latlon-cwa-map-glm_flash&colorbar=acht

2.) Select the ABI Band / RGB Color Product you want.

3.) Left click the little globe icon called 'Product Overlays', under the 'GOES Derived' tab left click 'GLM Flashes'. The data will load with a short time lag depending on your internet connection.

 

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The recurve north is supposed to happen immediately prior to landfall..quite a dangerous scenario given that track uncertainty is typically greatest right at the time/point of recurve...Really challenging forecast from a crisis management scenario...especially given such close proximity to major metro area...

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It’s unfortunate these storms impact peoples lives so severely, because watching tropical systems go from what Laura was yesterday morning to what it is this morning is one of the most fascinating occurrences in weather and nature. 

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Looks like recon should be providing a center fix in under an hour. Current bearing is 337kts and they’re about 250 miles away. Assume they’ll lose some speed when they drop below cruising altitude... but regardless, data soon!!

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New HWRF has it pretty steady state until landfall near Cameron which is what I think will happen,  still a catastrophic solid cat 4- at this point do not think it will make 5 but kind of a moot point in any case.

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Laura is starting to look like a Category 4. The structure and appearance on visual is a first for my memory in this area of the NW GOM. Rita was of course becoming a ragged mess. Andrew also became ragged towards the LA central parishes. Ike was an eye-shrouded blobular behemoth at this location. Perhaps we have to go back as far as Major Hurricane Alicia to find such a good-looking satellite presentation by a TC in that region of the GOM.

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2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

New HWRF has it pretty steady state until landfall near Cameron which is what I think will happen,  still a catastrophic solid cat 4- at this point do not think it will make 5 but kind of a moot point in any case.

Doesn’t it run off the GFS which has been grossly too weak?

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Looking at radar, it's becoming increasingly unlikely that Lake Charles will be on the Western side of the eyewall. Though as far as the storm surge goes, a direct hit is still better than being on the right side of the eyewall. 

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3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

New HWRF has it pretty steady state until landfall near Cameron which is what I think will happen,  still a catastrophic solid cat 4- at this point do not think it will make 5 but kind of a moot point in any case.

I still think slight intensification through landfall(or at least until more significant shear is imparted) is probably likely. Case in point, you can make out several mesovorts rotating around the eyewall right now. IIRC those are a hallmark of continued strengthening until they consolidate and disappear.

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Just now, yotaman said:

Any live webcams from that area of La?

dont have any on hand, however Mark has been setting up cameras all morning so far

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack

I'm sure he will post a link or something to where you can view them

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6 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

New HWRF has it pretty steady state until landfall near Cameron which is what I think will happen,  still a catastrophic solid cat 4- at this point do not think it will make 5 but kind of a moot point in any case.

Looks like Laura is currently at the longitude of Cameron. Would need to see track turn north within next hr or 2 for that to verify...no?

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Lake Charles will be in the right side of the eye IMO.

Yeah they're going to be the worst hit city in this. Massive surge and wind. Port Arthur will be close but could dodge the big surge at least. 

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12 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Laura is starting to look like a Category 4. The structure and appearance on visual is a first for my memory in this area of the NW GOM. Rita was of course becoming a ragged mess. Andrew also became ragged towards the LA central parishes. Ike was an eye-shrouded blobular behemoth at this location. Perhaps we have to go back as far as Major Hurricane Alicia to find such a good-looking satellite presentation by a TC in that region of the GOM.

Lili (2002?) is another one that blew up to Cat 4 then fell apart as it went into central LA. 

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5 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

New HWRF has it pretty steady state until landfall near Cameron which is what I think will happen,  still a catastrophic solid cat 4- at this point do not think it will make 5 but kind of a moot point in any case.

Wind damage escalates more and more per MPH especially at this level so even relatively small increases or decreases can be impactful.  That said even Saffir Simpson has the same headline for cat 4 as it does 5:

Quote

Catastrophic damage will occur

 

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My forecast for intensity,  Unfortunately is coming to fruition. But thankfully, For Galveston and Houston, my track will not verify.   Thoughts are with the folks along the coast of Southwest Louisiana and North East Texas...

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For those wondering about current position with respect to Lake Charles, Cameron, Port Arthur, etc., Laura is still SSE at storm relative motion and at a longitudinal position east of those cities. Getting close though. Also keep in mind the beam is pushing 40k ft so eyewall reflectivity echoes are still yet weak.4e6ef0fd38cb97daa2a2c9d4dcf0043c.gif

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