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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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When I woke up about 5 hours ago the convective ring and eyewall was not even completely closed. Now it's a solid ring, which is incredibly favorable for both rapid deepening and maintaining that intensity. Recon indicating 130 mph from last pass about an hour ago. 

I know we're all thinking it, could easily become Cat 5 especially cause diurnal convective max happening right before landfall. 

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

Final center fix from the morning recon is 957 mb.

I saw a dropsonde that read 951mb, but then the graphic on top said 958mb

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Next recon plane is under 400 miles away, so shouldn’t be all that long before they’re into the outer bands of Laura.

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It looks better and better on satellite to me, anyways. I don't think it stalled out.  It won't always uber deepen...but still looks like it's intensifying to me.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It looks better and better on satellite to me, anyways. I don't think it stalled out.  It won't always uber deepen...but still looks like it's intensifying to me.

I should clarify, pressure drops stalled out a bit compared to what it was doing. Should have been more clear on my post that it’s still strengthening (pressure dropping), just slower.

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5 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

Things kinda stalled out a bit. I would expect more strengthening to happen once the eye is fully cleared out.

Stalled out in what sense?

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It looks better and better on satellite to me, anyways. I don't think it stalled out.  It won't always uber deepen...but still looks like it's intensifying to me.

the main CDO is intensifying, cooling cloud tops, substantial convection now encircling the center and the eye continues to clear out rapidly.  I think flight AF307 will see a much stronger hurricane than the last plane left.  I think those 120-knot winds will reach the surface with the eye wall closed this will allow the winds to transfer cleanly to the surface.  The process is much cleaner now.  I think there is a chance that the 133-knot winds at 952 mb would be brought to the surface in the first pass through the NE eye wall and center pass should bring pressures down to near 945mb

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1 minute ago, JasonOH said:

I should clarify, stalled out compared to what it was doing. Should have been more clear on my post that it’s still strengthening, just slower.

Sweet shot on College of Dupage Gulf coast sector. Much better than the floater sector as the Gulf coast shot is looking straight down. 

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¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Looks like a wobble to me. Overall forward motion has been too fast for a stall and even if it were going to stall, that would be too unrealistically abrupt. It's a wobble.

 

Eye continues to clear and look more and more symmetrical.a2e3eb87be6bf5d944fe6c81c3878539.gif&key=51dfb52d3c9c598f5a5c0198b1c056f50cdc16b11b5976f03b65d260d9553070

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Looks like a wobble to me. Overall forward motion has been too fast for a stall and even if it were going to stall, that would be too unrealistically abrupt. It's a wobble.

 

Eye continues to clear and look more and more symmetrical.a2e3eb87be6bf5d944fe6c81c3878539.gif&key=51dfb52d3c9c598f5a5c0198b1c056f50cdc16b11b5976f03b65d260d9553070

 

 

I think that he meant the rapid pressure drops have slowed to a more steady drop, not that the motion stalled.

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AF307 hurricane hunters heading off the panhandle of Florida now, should be in the storm in another hour and a half!

Are they flying from Merritt Marine Corps air station in Beaufort SC? If yes what’s the reasoning?


.

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Holly Beach community Facebook page if anyone wants to follow along later. This particular page was started after Rita. Some folks have ring doorbell and security cameras that might be able to show how fast the water rises until power goes out. People posting goodbyes to homes and property. Very somber :( 

https://www.facebook.com/groups/2232185784

 

image.png.d5967cfdd4dab0a9c5156a5327fee9cf.png

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4 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:


Are they flying from Merritt Marine Corps air station in Beaufort SC? If yes what’s the reasoning?


.

Not sure what you are asking?

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5 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:


Are they flying from Merritt Marine Corps air station in Beaufort SC? If yes what’s the reasoning?


.

They evacuated from Kessler to stay away from the storm.  They get far away so the storm can’t cause any issues at the base they are flying from.

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Interesting map showing track and landfall intensities. SW LA & the far E Texas region has not recorded a Category 4 landfall. Aubrey and Rita are the two most recent Cat 3s. Rita was of course weakening upon landfall.

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just noticed that there's still some significant lightning in and around the core - that can't be good.

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just noticed that there's still some significant lightning in and around the core - that can't be good.
Finished the eyewall merger, might ramp up and put on a show for the record books

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

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Just now, turtlehurricane said:

Bunch of lightning happening in the eyewall, right as the eye drills down to the surface and clears out. We very likely have a cat 4. 

How do you see the lightning occurring in it now?

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Eye seems to be shrinking/consolidating... that can’t be a good sign.

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Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

Finished the eyewall merger, might ramp up and put on a show for the record books

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

last year Dorian lit up and was flashing like a Christmas tree as it underwent it's RI phase - looks like Laura is still ramping up.

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Just now, jojo762 said:

Eye seems to be shrinking/consolidating... that can’t be a good sign.

I think this is largely a function of beam height rather than true structural change. Eye has been gradually improving on IR, but not as quickly as radar would suggest.

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