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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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Still moving on a general WNW trajectory. I know the guidance is pretty locked in on landfall location at this point but how can you look at the satellite loop from Galveston and not be worried?

Eye is really clearing out now.

 

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I think I read/heard the shear will be at a level below the outflow.
I did too, but I have seen storms (notably Irma is the benchmark for this) create their own atmospheric bubble

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12z GFS initialized at 971mb. 

hr 6 - 962mb

hr 12 - 963mb

hr 18 - 966mb (Near LF)

hr 24 - 975mb (Well Inland)

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Still moving on a general WNW trajectory. I know the guidance is pretty locked in on landfall location at this point but how can you look at the satellite loop from Galveston and not be worried?

Eye is really clearing out now.

 

Really depends on the small trough over TX and how it interacts with Laura. If it’s a little weaker it can stay more westerly, also lessen any shear. Models are pretty stout at this point about the northerly turn....

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Still moving on a general WNW trajectory. I know the guidance is pretty locked in on landfall location at this point but how can you look at the satellite loop from Galveston and not be worried?

Eye is really clearing out now.

 

The modeling had a fairly sharp turn at which point it doesn't make very much westward headway at all, so the timing of the turn will be key

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This tweet is a fews hours old but has a nice comparison of the look of Laura over 10 hours. Amazing how much bigger and organized it got in a short period of time

 

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Still moving on a general WNW trajectory. I know the guidance is pretty locked in on landfall location at this point but how can you look at the satellite loop from Galveston and not be worried? Eye is really clearing out now.

 

 

I would be nauseous if I resided in Port Arthur. The turn will occur, but it could be a little delayed within interaction of the 590 dm heights and the upper trough. That being said, it looks like the shallow weakness left by Marco is getting absorbed by Laura now. Regardless, a gradual turn and track error could still make for a landfall west of Port Arthur which would be catastrophic for them. We use that word "catastrophic" too often and here I am doing that again, but the surge potential there would be awful in the eastern eyewall and position of the bay.

 

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Just now, Windspeed said:
6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:
Still moving on a general WNW trajectory. I know the guidance is pretty locked in on landfall location at this point but how can you look at the satellite loop from Galveston and not be worried?

Eye is really clearing out now.

 

 

I would be nauseous if I resided in Port Arthur. The turn will occur, but it could be a little delayed within interaction of the 590 dm heights and the upper trough. That being said, it looks like the shallow weakness left by Marco is getting absorbed by Laura now. Regardless, a gradual turn and track error could still make for a landfall west of Port Arthur which would be catastrophic for them. We use that word "catastrophic" and here I am doing that again, but the surge potential there would be awful in the eastern eyewall and position of the bay.

But even a wobble at this point just prior to landfall could be enough to put Galveston in the Western eyewall.

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9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Still moving on a general WNW trajectory. I know the guidance is pretty locked in on landfall location at this point but how can you look at the satellite loop from Galveston and not be worried?

Eye is really clearing out now.

 

I made note of this as well a few pages back. It's unlikely that Galveston will receive a direct hit but it's going to have to start making that sharp NNW turn soon or Port Arthur and Beaumont could really be ground zero.

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15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Sorry but the Irene number is laughable. There was nowhere near 20ft above normal water in Lido Beach NY-I lived in the next town over at the time. I think the surge from Irene was about 5ft. Parts of town were inundated that were low lying but Sandy was much worse. But back on topic now... 

Absolutely, the Irene figure is from wave run up. Pretty obvious that the sandy surge was several feet higher.

What a big break the whole country is taking right now that Laura isn’t heading into Houston. The last thing we need is another 100 billion+ disaster. Not to belittle those that are going to loose everything. 
 

Does anyone have the list of top IKE? 

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2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

I would be nauseous if I resided in Port Arthur. The turn will occur, but it could be a little delayed within interaction of the 590 dm heights and the upper trough. That being said, it looks like the shallow weakness left by Marco is getting absorbed by Laura now. Regardless, a gradual turn and track error could still make for a landfall west of Port Arthur which would be catastrophic for them. We use that word "catastrophic" too often and here I am doing that again, but the surge potential there would be awful in the eastern eyewall and position of the bay.

 

Yeah that small shift could really threaten tens of thousands more people. Beaumont/Port Arthur is pretty heavily populated, low lying and with crucial shipping/energy infrastructure. As is it’ll be bad there but much worse if it landfalls in TX. 

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

But even a wobble at this point just prior to landfall could be enough to put Galveston in the Western eyewall.

That would be a HELL of a wobble at this point and a pretty huge miss forecasting wise at this point.

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But even a wobble at this point just prior to landfall could be enough to put Galveston in the Western eyewall.

I had sweaty palms as Michael was bearing down on Navarre before it turned NE. Science, models, Mets, say the curve is coming but until it does you just sit and wonder!


.

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Just now, KPITSnow said:

That would be a HELL of a wobble at this point and a pretty huge miss forecasting wise at this point.

Precisely.  A miss of nearly 80 miles or so.  Not likely at this late stage.  

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Still moving on a general WNW trajectory. I know the guidance is pretty locked in on landfall location at this point but how can you look at the satellite loop from Galveston and not be worried?

Eye is really clearing out now.

 

The best policy is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.  If I were a Galveston resident I'd have left days ago.  That area seems very susceptible to surge and difficult to evacuate if you wait too long.  That said storms rarely leave the NHC cone in the short term, it's a really good bet that this makes landfall within it.

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12 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Th modeling had a fairly sharp turn at which point it doesn't make very much westward headway at all, so the timing of the turn will be key

Hopefully that turn happens sooner than later.  The current forecast track is bad news for Lake Charles, with the eyewall  potentially impacting there.  Still, a Louisiana landfall is the better-case scenario, population-wise, over a Texas landfall.
 

I would still feel very concerned if I were in Galveston, though.  Regardless of where the eye comes ashore, this is a large storm.  The Houston-Galveston area is forecast to see tropical storm conditions, especially in the eastern part of the metro.  But it seems like the worst of the storm could occur anywhere from Beaumont (with a later turn) to east of Lake Charles (earlier turn).  The timing of this turn will determine impacts on the upper Texas coast.

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Guys Cranky was right, 250mb has a nice chunk of shear... It is 40mph inland, 33 at the coaste1e1e2651e42baff5cf180eb5d6b981c.jpg&key=8099b754dab4c2b19775aabf99671eba8299535ce949f15199ebaf6079612106

 

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If only it were to remain static. We also have the upper 200 hPa anticyclone pivoting northeast of Laura. That will push against and bend back the upper trough flow through the evening; i.e., southerly upper flow will increase but negative shear values may not be strong enough near the coast to impinge upon Laura's vortex until it has already made landfall. It's a moot point after that.
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Just now, Windspeed said:
8 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:
Guys Cranky was right, 250mb has a nice chunk of shear... It is 40mph inland, 33 at the coaste1e1e2651e42baff5cf180eb5d6b981c.jpg&key=8099b754dab4c2b19775aabf99671eba8299535ce949f15199ebaf6079612106

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If only it were to remain static. We also have the upper 200 hPa anticyclone pivoting northeast of Laura. That will push against and bend back the upper trough flow through the evening; i.e., southerly upper flow will increase but negative shear values may not be strong enough near the coast to infringe Laura's vortex until it has already made landfall. It's a moot point after that.

Even on visible loop, it looks like the winds are westerly until West of the Houston area where a convergence zone appears to be.

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9 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Guys Cranky was right, 250mb has a nice chunk of shear... It is 40mph inland, 33 at the coaste1e1e2651e42baff5cf180eb5d6b981c.jpg

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

Until we start to see signs of outflow impingement on the NW side I think he's wrong.

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The question is not about some shear impinging on it. It will on the western end this evening. Whether the causes weakening is up for debate. But to say that the look of Laura will degenerate from here on out it just incorrect. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

The question is not about some shear impinging on it. It will on the western end this evening. Whether the causes weakening is up for debate. But to say that the look of Laura will degenerate from here on out it just incorrect. 

I agree Scott, it seems less of a chance then category five intensity.  Look no one forecasts a category five intensity for certain, but odds are low it happens, but I would put that higher than degrading throughout landfall!

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