• Member Statistics

    16,098
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    shawanta003
    Newest Member
    shawanta003
    Joined
WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

Recommended Posts

Just now, MUWX said:

Already said tops were warming and visual degradation soon to follow 

I have a problem with people spewing this info and have no idea what they are talking about. It hurts more than helps. 

  • Like 14
  • Thanks 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, HKY_WX said:

I would agree that the euro is more accurate on the SLP. The GFS isn't a very good model with hurricane central pressures, so I wouldn't even look at it for that aspect.

It will be interesting to see if the 12z GFS makes any adjustments. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NDBC 42001 buoy cam, ~100mi/east of Laura's center, pointed east is tipped over by strong WSW winds and watching the buoy's own wind wake --

 

42001 buoy cam2.jpg

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

KLCH radar site is just south of Lake Charles.  Should get some great images as Laura comes on shore later tonight.  We'll see how long it can stay online!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, friedmators said:


Doesn’t the sun cause warming tops by definition?


.

Yes, and despite the sun, Laura is still producing a tremendous area of -60C cloud tops or colder.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Bostonseminole said:

I thought Holly beach would not be a good spot when I first posted a few days ago,  but looks like they are going to be directly affected AGAIN!

Holly Beach was essentially wiped off the map during Rita. It's a small community but this is going to be devastating once again. Maybe even worse.

Here's an article I found this morning-  https://www.kplctv.com/story/30092775/holly-beachten-years-after-rita/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, mappy said:

I really hope those in the path have evacuated, or are in the final stages of doing so. that surge forecast is no joke.

I worry that some people who otherwise would evacuate to a public shelter will decide to ride it out due to fear of contracting COVID.  Considering the wind damage that looks inevitable even away from the immediate coast,  this has a bad feel for people living in less than substantial buildings even above the flood zone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, jrips27 said:

Holly Beach was essentially wiped off the map during Rita. It's a small community but this is going to be devastating once again. Maybe even worse.

Here's an article I found this morning-  https://www.kplctv.com/story/30092775/holly-beachten-years-after-rita/

Thought of this place right away this morning. Heartbroken for those that chose to rebuild, this will very likely be the second time in 15 years that little community is drastically impacted by a hurricane of this caliber. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some land there in Louisiana is probably going to be permanently wiped out into the ocean. That always happens in hurricanes, but I mean significant tracts of land. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

AF data just partially came in. NE Eyewall drop had a lowest 150m mean wind of 118kt with 114kt at the SFC. No center drop apparently.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

These are the storms with a storm tide greater than 20 ft

Katrina, 2005: 34.11’ above MSL at Biloxi, MS (Cat 3)
Camille, 1969: 24.6’ above MSL at Pass Christian, MS (Cat 5)
Carla, 1961: 22’ above MSL at Calhoun County, TX (Cat 4)
Opal, 1995: 21.5’ above MSL at Mirimar Beach, FL (Cat 3)
Michael, 2018: 20.6' - 21.2’ above MSL at Mexico Beach, FL (Cat 4)
Irene, 2011: 20.77’ above NAVD at Lido Beach, NY (Cat 1)
Audrey, 1957: 20.3’ above MSL at St. James Parrish, LA (Cat 3)
Hugo, 1989: 20.2’ above NGVD at Awendaw, SC (Cat 4)

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Hurricane-Michael-Brought-Water-Levels-Over-20-High-Coast

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

AF data from AF301 just reported a dropsonde drop of 133 knot winds at 952 mb level, and a mean lower level wind of sustained 114 knots which rounds to 130 mph storm category four hurricane

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, geddyweather said:

Thought of this place right away this morning. Heartbroken for those that chose to rebuild, this will very likely be the second time in 15 years that little community is drastically impacted by a hurricane of this caliber. 

Wondering if this surge will be worse than Rita? It was a cat 5 for a while but weakened pretty dramatically before land. This is the opposite in terms of strengthening into the coast but also a large storm which drives more water. Either way horrible devastation incoming. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

Looks like the Air Force plane is having data issues. They’ve been having lots of trouble with that during Laura.

They’ve been having escalating issues for the last couple years it seems. It’s gotta be a budgetary thing. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, OSUmetstud said:

These are the storms with a storm tide greater than 20 ft

Katrina, 2005: 34.11’ above MSL at Biloxi, MS (Cat 3)
Camille, 1969: 24.6’ above MSL at Pass Christian, MS (Cat 5)
Carla, 1961: 22’ above MSL at Calhoun County, TX (Cat 4)
Opal, 1995: 21.5’ above MSL at Mirimar Beach, FL (Cat 3)
Michael, 2018: 20.6' - 21.2’ above MSL at Mexico Beach, FL (Cat 4)
Irene, 2011: 20.77’ above NAVD at Lido Beach, NY (Cat 1)
Audrey, 1957: 20.3’ above MSL at St. James Parrish, LA (Cat 3)
Hugo, 1989: 20.2’ above NGVD at Awendaw, SC (Cat 4)

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Hurricane-Michael-Brought-Water-Levels-Over-20-High-Coast

Sorry but the Irene number is laughable. There was nowhere near 20ft above normal water in Lido Beach NY-I lived in the next town over at the time. I think the surge from Irene was about 5ft. Parts of town were inundated that were low lying but Sandy was much worse. But back on topic now... 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
These are the storms with a storm tide greater than 20 ft
Katrina, 2005: 34.11’ above MSL at Biloxi, MS (Cat 3)
Camille, 1969: 24.6’ above MSL at Pass Christian, MS (Cat 5)
Carla, 1961: 22’ above MSL at Calhoun County, TX (Cat 4)
Opal, 1995: 21.5’ above MSL at Mirimar Beach, FL (Cat 3)
Michael, 2018: 20.6' - 21.2’ above MSL at Mexico Beach, FL (Cat 4)
Irene, 2011: 20.77’ above NAVD at Lido Beach, NY (Cat 1)
Audrey, 1957: 20.3’ above MSL at St. James Parrish, LA (Cat 3)
Hugo, 1989: 20.2’ above NGVD at Awendaw, SC (Cat 4)
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Hurricane-Michael-Brought-Water-Levels-Over-20-High-Coast
Michael was a 5 though, unless they downgraded?

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

Michael was a 5 though, unless they downgraded?

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

No Michael was upgraded post storm analysis

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am sorry, but how is that trough going to impart shear on Laura if the hurricane is pushing the trough westward or northwestward?  Satellite imagery shows the trough moving west with the hurricane, almost like Laura is absorbing the trough.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I am sorry, but how is that trough going to impart shear on Laura if the hurricane is pushing the trough westward or northwestward?  Satellite imagery shows the trough moving west with the hurricane, almost like Laura is absorbing the trough.

I see the outflow moving west clearing the trough, good point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The new AF recon plane just got on its way to replace the two currently finishing up their flights.  It's coming from the east coast, so it may take a couple hours to get in there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Sorry but the Irene number is laughable. There was nowhere near 20ft above normal water in Lido Beach NY-I lived in the next town over at the time. I think the surge from Irene was about 5ft. Parts of town were inundated that were low lying but Sandy was much worse. But back on topic now... 

Yeah idk seems high to me too. I can't verify it elsewhere but its Jeff masters I assumed it was solid. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, wizard021 said:

I see the outflow moving west clearing the trough, good point.

I think I read/heard the shear will be at a level below the outflow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.