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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You raise a good point. When Katrina rapidly strengthened, it pushed a lot of water up and was able to maintain that surge despite some fluctuation in strength prior to landfall. Data NOAA Buoy 42395 was posted here a short time ago and showed wave heights approaching 40 feet (I think the official value was 37.3 ft). This would imply that significant surge is possible to the east of Laura's landfall. One possible caveat to this might be the angle of approach.  With Katrina, it was a flush hit on approach, whereas Laura will be turning north while making landfall. The might knock off the potential for some obscene storm surge, but either way the surge is a big risk for this particular event.

In the case of hurricanes, size does matter. And the fact that it was a category 5 hurricane less than 24 hours prior to landfall didn't help either. 

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3 minutes ago, klw said:

Here is a tide chart for Lake Charles, if the arrival time is 1am it would seem to be about 3 hours after low tide tonight

https://www.tide-forecast.com/locations/Lake-Charles-Calcasieu-River-Louisiana/tides/latest

Lake-Charles-Calcasieu-River-Louisiana.p

 

It looks like tides in Port Arthur are about 3 1/2 hours earlier.

https://www.tide-forecast.com/locations/Sabine-Naches-Canal-Port-Arthur-Texas/tides/latest

Sabine-Naches-Canal-Port-Arthur-Texas.pn

 

Unlike the Atlantic regions, the difference between tide cycles isn't all that significant in this region. 

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2 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

Its flooding already?

Was just gonna post that. Good grief, look at that water rise already.

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It is a beautiful storm on satellite. Unfortunately it'll be ugly on the Coast. Not a surprise after the press drops and lightning in the eyewall last night.

For a bit this morning the eye looked wobbly on IR. However that followed overnight vorticies (I infer) in the eyewall. Seems the few IR frames were simply the transition from vorticies to a more stadium look possible later today. Wow!

Little bit of shear still up on the Coast. Will it weaken the hurricane, or ventilate it? Seems the latter is often the case with storms that strengthen less than 24 hr to landfall. Esp 12 hours or less.

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The water rising early is one of the first signs that Katrina was going to be significantly worse than people expected. The surge warnings are no joke. With Katrina it was getting high in Mobile and places beyond. One of the spots you indicated was near me and I am east of Baton Rouge. 

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28 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This will be a helpful site to follow the water rise.

 

I was checking tide levels over the weekend along the N gulf coast and they were already running above normal, probably due to the persistent S-SW flow for almost a week.Add little Marco's tidal contribution and some persistent coastal rains around the forecast LF area there's already some water piled up, some areas up to a foot above mean yesterday morning.  May not sound like much but it lowers the ability for any part of the coast effected by the storm surge to absorb the initial surge.  We experienced something similar when the storm of the century hit the beaches of Pinellas county.  Persistent moderate to strong SW flow with a few days of heavy rains caused a few days of low tides and runoff to not be completely released from the intracoastal before the storm hit.  Had extreme flooding well above the forecast.

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18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I respectfully disagree. Yesterday's 12z run of the Euro had a better handle than the GFS which was showing increasing shear in the last 12 hours prior to landfall and a quicker breakdown in the ridge. The Euro matches up much better to current 500mb analysis.

I don't see the weakness in the ridge yet.

500mb.gif?1598451947066

The 0z euro run yesterday had the landfall 100 miles too far southwest as compared to the GFS. The gfs has been much more steady on the landfall position the last few days. That bubble of 5880m heights over central texas (upper low) is your weakness. That will be enough to curve Laura N and then it will get caught in the mid-latitude westerlies.

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125mph/956 at 11am update

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The lastest minimum pressure estimated from 
aircraft data is 956 mb, indicating a pressure drop of 27 mb over 
the past 12 hours.

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

125mph/956 at 11am update

000
WTNT43 KNHC 261452
TCDAT3

Hurricane Laura Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132020
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

Laura has become a very powerful hurricane this morning.  The 
satellite presentation has continued to improve with the eye 
becoming better defined, and cloud tops colder than -70C in the 
surrounding ring of deep convection.  Both NOAA and Air Force 
hurricane hunter aircraft have provided valuable data this morning. 
The NOAA P-3 aircraft reported a peak flight-level wind of 125 kt at 
8000 ft, and a peak SFMR wind of 104 kt, while the Air Force crew 
has observed peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 121 kt and peak SFMR 
winds of 104 kt.  The lastest minimum pressure estimated from 
aircraft data is 956 mb, indicating a pressure drop of 27 mb over 
the past 12 hours. Based on the aircraft data, the initial wind 
speed was increased to 100 kt on the 1200 UTC intermediate advisory, 
and is now set at 110 kt based on the latest flight-level and SFMR 
winds.

Laura is likely to continue strengthening today while it moves over
warm waters of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and the vertical
wind shear remains low.  Laura's intensity could level-off by this
evening due to the possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle
and the expected increase in shear around the time of landfall.
Even if the rate of strengthening eases, Laura is expected to be
an extremely powerful category 4 hurricane when it reaches the
northwestern Gulf coast.  After landfall, rapid weakening will
occur, but Laura will bring a swath of damaging winds well inland
over western Louisiana and eastern Texas. The UKMET and ECMWF models
suggest that there is some chance that Laura re-intensifies as a
tropical cyclone off the mid-Atlantic coast, but given the
uncertainties at that time range the forecast continues to show it
as a post-tropical cyclone at days 4 and 5.

Laura is moving northwestward at about 13 kt. A gradual turn toward
the north-northwest and north are expected within the next 12-18
hours as the hurricane moves around the western portion of a mid- 
level ridge that extends from the western Atlantic into the
southeastern United States. This motion will bring the center of
Laura onshore in southwestern Louisiana or extreme eastern Texas
tonight. By Thursday night, Laura is forecast to turn northeastward,
and then east-northeastward on Friday as it becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies.  The dynamical track models are in good
agreement, and little adjustment to the previous NHC forecast track
was required.

Laura is a large hurricane and users are reminded to not focus on
the precise track forecast since wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will 
cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to 
Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. 
This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate 
coastline. Only a few hours remain to protect life and property and 
all actions should be rushed to completion. 

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected tonight in portions of the 
hurricane warning area from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan 
City, Louisiana, with catastrophic wind damage expected where 
Lauras eyewall makes landfall. Hurricane-force winds and widespread 
damaging wind gusts will spread well inland across portions of 
eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday. 

3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and 
roadways is expected to begin this afternoon into Thursday from far 
eastern Texas, across Louisiana and Arkansas.  This will also lead 
to minor to isolated moderate freshwater river flooding.  The heavy 
rainfall threat and localized flash and urban flooding potential 
will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio 
and Tennessee Valleys Friday night and Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 27.0N  92.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 28.5N  93.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 31.0N  93.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 33.7N  93.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  28/1200Z 35.8N  92.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  29/0000Z 37.2N  89.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  29/1200Z 37.6N  83.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  30/1200Z 40.0N  70.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  31/1200Z 48.0N  55.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

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Wow-surge forecast up to 20ft now near Cameron. Hopefully it doesn’t tick west because that would be a huge surge into Port Arthur if it goes slightly west of forecast. 

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7 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

The 0z euro run yesterday had the landfall 100 miles too far southwest as compared to the GFS. The gfs has been much more steady on the landfall position the last few days. That bubble of 5880m heights over central texas (upper low) is your weakness. That will be enough to curve Laura N and then it will get caught in the mid-latitude westerlies.

Yes I realize that we have the ULL over the red river valley, this is why the storm is turning Northward instead of plowing into Corpus Christi. The GFS may have had the upper hand with regards to eventual landfall location, but it has continuously been too weak intensity wise.

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Crazy to see that amount of surge at Bolivar and it's going to be on the southwest side of the center.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Yes I realize that we have the ULL over the red river valley, this is why the storm is turning Northward instead of plowing into Corpus Christi. The GFS may have had the upper hand with regards to eventual landfall location, but it has continuously been too weak intensity wise.

I would agree that the euro is more accurate on the SLP. The GFS isn't a very good model with hurricane central pressures, so I wouldn't even look at it for that aspect.

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5 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Yeah, this is getting a bit scary.

I really hope those in the path have evacuated, or are in the final stages of doing so. that surge forecast is no joke.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Wonder how Cranky feels. 

Already said tops were warming and visual degradation soon to follow 

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