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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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Debate about maximum intensity aside,  I am becoming increasingly concerned about the hurricane wind radii.... It cannot be overstated enough about the catastrophic storm surge potential this has.

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2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Debate about maximum intensity aside,  I am becoming increasingly concerned about the hurricane wind radii.... It cannot be overstated enough about the catastrophic storm surge potential this has.

Surge potential looks bad, and as we saw with Katrina, even if it were to weaken the surge impacts wouldn't change much. 

What's the Ike number on this anyway?

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15 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Oh no...
 

 


Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

 

Pardon my ignorance, but what is a merger eyewall replacement cycle?

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Pardon my ignorance, but what is a merger EWRC?

I think the two eyes walls join instead of the inner one Dissipating   

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Pardon my ignorance, but what is a merger eyewall replacement cycle?

It's when an outer wind maxima begins to merge with the dominate eyewall. Typical of ERC failures but not entirely uncommon in initial rapidly intensifying large eyewalls. Saw this happen with Irma several times though that wasn't during its initial rapid intensification but during steady-state MPI.

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Just now, LovintheWhiteFluff said:

From the link

 

Yeah, I just did a quick google search. If that's the case, yikes.

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Sadly, I also think that Laura is much closer to landfall than Katrina was while deepening. This means even if Laura is able to slacken off a bit, it'll almost be too late.

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4 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Sadly, I also think that Laura is much closer to landfall than Katrina was while deepening. This means even if Laura is able to slacken off a bit, it'll almost be too late.

That's the worst part of this storm. A lot of these intense Gulf hurricanes in recent years outside of Michael peaked early and leveled off or weakened upon approach while this one developed much later in its cycle and could well peak or still be intensifying upon approach.

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5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Why is xelartz considered an authority here?

anthro furry drawings, followed by Josh and Ian. Probably the next big wxtwitter star. 

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As referenced above AF301 mission found yet another significant pressure drop with the extrapolated pressure down to 952. Will wait for the dropsonde to confirm..

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The size of Laura relative to the anaemic northern quadrant we saw yesterday is very striking, it has grown tremendously. 

8XuvtO3.jpg

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GFS has had a solid handle on this storm. We're currently in the most ideal conditions for Laura with the large anticyclone overhead, incredibly warm SST's, and a lack of shear. As it nears the coastline late tonight it will start to interact with the ULL over TX and curve N/become slightly sheared from the SW, thus intensity should be steady at landfall. However, from now until this evening it will be interesting to see how low we go.

 

gfs_uv250_eus_3.png

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20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Surge potential looks bad, and as we saw with Katrina, even if it were to weaken the surge impacts wouldn't change much. 

What's the Ike number on this anyway?

You raise a good point. When Katrina rapidly strengthened, it pushed a lot of water up and was able to maintain that surge despite some fluctuation in strength prior to landfall. Data NOAA Buoy 42395 was posted here a short time ago and showed wave heights approaching 40 feet (I think the official value was 37.3 ft). This would imply that significant surge is possible to the east of Laura's landfall. One possible caveat to this might be the angle of approach.  With Katrina, it was a flush hit on approach, whereas Laura will be turning north while making landfall. The might knock off the potential for some obscene storm surge, but either way the surge is a big risk for this particular event.

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Here is a tide chart for Lake Charles, if the arrival time is 1am it would seem to be about 3 hours after low tide tonight

https://www.tide-forecast.com/locations/Lake-Charles-Calcasieu-River-Louisiana/tides/latest

Lake-Charles-Calcasieu-River-Louisiana.p

 

It looks like tides in Port Arthur are about 3 1/2 hours earlier.

https://www.tide-forecast.com/locations/Sabine-Naches-Canal-Port-Arthur-Texas/tides/latest

Sabine-Naches-Canal-Port-Arthur-Texas.pn

 

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You raise a good point. When Katrina rapidly strengthened, it pushed a lot of water up and was able to maintain that surge despite some fluctuation in strength prior to landfall. Data NOAA Buoy 42395 was posted here a short time ago and showed wave heights approaching 40 feet (I think the official value was 37.3 ft). This would imply that significant surge is possible to the east of Laura's landfall. One possible caveat to this might be the angle of approach.  With Katrina, it was a flush hit on approach, whereas Laura will be turning north while making landfall. The might knock off the potential for some obscene storm surge, but either way the surge is a big risk for this particular event.

Marco also did some work to begin the process of building seas. A key parameter to wave heights is duration...and in this case it’s quite unique with the proximity/timing of two hurricanes.

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10 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

GFS has had a solid handle on this storm. We're currently in the most ideal conditions for Laura with the large anticyclone overhead, incredibly warm SST's, and a lack of shear. As it nears the coastline late tonight it will start to interact with the ULL over TX and curve N/become slightly sheared from the SW. Thus intensity should be steady at landfall. However, from now until this evening, it will be interesting to see how low we go.

 

gfs_uv250_eus_3.png

I respectfully disagree. Yesterday's 12z run of the Euro had a better handle than the GFS which was showing increasing shear in the last 12 hours prior to landfall and a quicker breakdown in the ridge. The Euro matches up much better to current 500mb analysis.

I don't see the weakness in the ridge yet.

500mb.gif?1598451947066

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