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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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I realize the intensity guidance is being retarded by land interaction, so even if conservative, their staying middle of the intensity guidance is wise; however, if your forecast track is going to plot north of the Antilles, how do you not just go ahead and push 5 more kts and make TD13 a hurricane late in the forecast period?

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All of South Florida is deep in the cone. Potential Hurricane Monday. Here we go.

Also, notably, track going right through the Hebert Box. In-fact, the entire cone is in the Hebert Box, so looks like it's definitely gonna go through it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box

IMG_4110.png

Edit: HWRF and HMON (formerly GFDL) in close agreement on a Cat 3-5 hitting Southeast Florida. In-fact, in this case it seems far more likely than not that Hispaniola won't be in the picture. It would have to really deviate south. Unfortunately, this may be a clear cut worst case scenario for Southeast Florida, and we will know for sure much earlier than usual, likely on Friday as it passes the longitude of the Leeward Islands it will be completely clear what scenario will unfold. 

 

Screen Shot 2020-08-19 at 11.26.13 PM.png

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Gfs rapidly intensifies b4 landfall. Looks like a cat 2/ 3.
Models always overrun how strong a ridge is... We have to go day by day, and not throw all our hands at the models

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27 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

Uk/Gfs day 6 point in central Gulf in agreement. Ecmwf/ Jma  / Icon all go into the Gulf. The talk of an up the coast storm is closing.

Yea high pressure rules up here with renewed heat 90+ as Florida and Gulf Coast gets slammed underneath the ridge. 

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NHC highlights the difference between the models rather starkly re strength in the 5am disco... I have bolded it below.  Also NHC discusses TD 13 moving over Hispaniola as well, which would cause issues in its own right

 

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132020
500 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020

There has been little change in the organization of Tropical 
Depression Thirteen during the past several hours.  An area of 
ragged but persistent convection continues near the estimated 
center position, and there is some outer banding in the southern 
semicircle.  Dvorak-based satellite intensity estimates have 
changed little since the last advisory, so the initial intensity 
remains 30 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/18.  The subtropical 
ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to build westward to 
the north of the Greater Antilles during the next several days, and 
this should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward through 
the forecast period.  The track guidance remains in fairly good 
agreement with this scenario, but there remains a spread between 
the GFS/UKMET on the south side of the guidance and the 
Canadian/HMON on the north side.  Overall, the envelope has shifted 
a little to the south since the previous advisory and the new 
forecast track, which lies just to the north of the consensus 
models, is also nudged southward.  The new track calls for the 
cyclone to pass near the Leeward Islands in 36-48 h, near or north 
of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in 48-60 h, and then near or 
over Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas by 72 h.

Overall, the environment looks generally favorable for 
strengthening, with the cyclone expected to encounter light- to 
moderate shear during forecast period.  However, the guidance 
responds to this environment with a wide range of solutions.  The 
HWRF/HMON forecast the cyclone to intensify into a major hurricane 
by 120 h.  On the other hand, the GFS and ECMWF show the system 
degenerating into an open wave by 120 h.  The UKMET and Canadian 
models are between these extremes.  The weak GFS solution appears 
to be due to forecast dry air entrainment, which is a possibility 
as satellite imagery suggests Saharan dust not far from the 
cyclone.  Between these factors and the possibility of land 
interaction, the low-confidence intensity forecast is changed 
little from the previous advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, and Tropical Storm Watches
have been issued for some of these islands.  Heavy rainfall is
likely across this area beginning late Friday.

2.  There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday and Tropical
Storm Watches could be required for these islands later today.
Interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are
more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions
of the Greater Antilles this weekend.  However, this system could
bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola,
Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week.
Interests there should monitor this system's progress and updates to
the forecast over the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 15.2N  49.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 16.4N  52.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 17.5N  56.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 18.4N  60.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 19.1N  63.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  22/1800Z 19.8N  67.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  23/0600Z 20.8N  71.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  24/0600Z 23.0N  78.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  25/0600Z 26.0N  83.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

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Good and bad news that GFS has finally caught on. Now that it’s caught on and judging off some of the other models, it seems like landfall somewhere directly on/around FL is highly likely(going straight west into the gulf seems less likely). It seems like mostly what’s left to figure out is 1. What exactly will the track be and 2. Just how much will it intensify before landfall? Next 24-48 hours going to be very important in many ways, worst case scenario would be no interaction with land on its way up and hoping it struggles to stay organized or strengthen as it makes its way past the islands. Depending on what some of the respected Mets on here say today, I think it may be time to give my uncle a call who only recently moved to FL and hasn’t experienced a big TC there yet. 

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5 minutes ago, Hc7 said:

Good and bad news that GFS has finally caught on. Now that it’s caught on and judging off some of the other models, it seems like landfall somewhere directly on/around FL is highly likely(going straight west into the gulf seems less likely). It seems like mostly what’s left to figure out is 1. What exactly will the track be and 2. Just how much will it intensify before landfall? Next 24-48 hours going to be very important in many ways, worst case scenario would be no interaction with land on its way up and hoping it struggles to stay organized or strengthen as it makes its way past the islands. Depending on what some of the respected Mets on here say today, I think it may be time to give my uncle a call who only recently moved to FL and hasn’t experienced a big TC there yet. 

Gfs has 1926 great florida storm track .

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7 minutes ago, Hc7 said:

Good and bad news that GFS has finally caught on. Now that it’s caught on and judging off some of the other models, it seems like landfall somewhere directly on/around FL is highly likely(going straight west into the gulf seems less likely). It seems like mostly what’s left to figure out is 1. What exactly will the track be and 2. Just how much will it intensify before landfall? Next 24-48 hours going to be very important in many ways, worst case scenario would be no interaction with land on its way up and hoping it struggles to stay organized or strengthen as it makes its way past the islands. Depending on what some of the respected Mets on here say today, I think it may be time to give my uncle a call who only recently moved to FL and hasn’t experienced a big TC there yet. 

I moved to Florida (Boca Raton) literally the week after Irma hit so I haven't experienced a big TC here yet.  What would you say to your uncle?

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Tampa Bay has been spared for a few years (since Irma), but this one may be too close for comfort. Today we will do an inventory on batteries, water, etc. We should be OK, but would rather shop today before any lines start forming. This weekend might be a total zoo at Walmart, Home Depot, Lowes, and other big stores.

Need to check the Oak Trees for any weak or dead branches as well. We'll have the weekend to put away potted plants, bird feeders, yard decorations, and other potential projectiles.

Kids start back to school on Monday...

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7 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I moved to Florida (Boca Raton) literally the week after Irma hit so I haven't experienced a big TC here yet.  What would you say to your uncle?

Every Floridian should own a generator, have a hurricane kit ready, and be ready to prepare property. Also never panic. :D

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19 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

Every Floridian should own a generator, have a hurricane kit ready, and be ready to prepare property. Also never panic. :D

I agree with this however when Dorian was 80 miles to my East here in Stuart there was plenty of internal panic considering I am essential for work and where to send my family.

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22 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

Every Floridian should own a generator, have a hurricane kit ready, and be ready to prepare property. Also never panic. :D

I plan on giving my generator a trial run this weekend and verifying Hurricane supply items. We are in peak season and the Panhandle knows the drill by now. 2016 - 2018 still fresh on all our minds.  

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53 minutes ago, Hc7 said:

Good and bad news that GFS has finally caught on. Now that it’s caught on and judging off some of the other models, it seems like landfall somewhere directly on/around FL is highly likely(going straight west into the gulf seems less likely). It seems like mostly what’s left to figure out is 1. What exactly will the track be and 2. Just how much will it intensify before landfall? Next 24-48 hours going to be very important in many ways, worst case scenario would be no interaction with land on its way up and hoping it struggles to stay organized or strengthen as it makes its way past the islands. Depending on what some of the respected Mets on here say today, I think it may be time to give my uncle a call who only recently moved to FL and hasn’t experienced a big TC there yet. 

I’ll say Florida on high alert I’m the Tropical Models I trust and the 6z HWRF shows everyone needs to have a rough draft plan and gather supplies. 
 

image.thumb.png.6dec76dd7cc9e6278b90b1c2c6316f06.png

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36 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I moved to Florida (Boca Raton) literally the week after Irma hit so I haven't experienced a big TC here yet.  What would you say to your uncle?

Depends on the next 24 hours, it could range from "get the f out of there" completely, or "be prepared with a hurricane kit and supplies"(he has an apartment so generator not an option as far as I know). Hes in the Palm Beach area of SoFL, so if it looks like its starting to track more towards Miami or worse, makes an east coast landfall (since itd probably be even stronger  if it takes a path that curves it to make landfall moreso on the east coast of FL) im probably going to tell him its a good time to come back up here for a little while. Worst case scenario if it looks like its tracking  north of the Antilles and islands(so not getting weakened from being close to land or shear) over the next 24 hours, im just going to play it safe and tell him to get the hell out early. With how large this storm is looking to be, and the fact its probably going to be at minimum a cat 2/3, there probably wont be too many scenarios outside of it tracking into the gulf (which seems less likely by the hour for now) that I wont be telling him to leave just to be safe. 

Also, latest GOES has it looking pretttty impressive and well organized already

yA7ZKEy.gif

 

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35 minutes ago, Hc7 said:

Depends on the next 24 hours, it could range from "get the f out of there" completely, or "be prepared with a hurricane kit and supplies"(he has an apartment so generator not an option as far as I know). Hes in the Palm Beach area of SoFL, so if it looks like its starting to track more towards Miami or worse, makes an east coast landfall (since itd probably be even stronger  if it takes a path that curves it to make landfall moreso on the east coast of FL) im probably going to tell him its a good time to come back up here for a little while. Worst case scenario if it looks like its tracking  north of the Antilles and islands(so not getting weakened from being close to land or shear) over the next 24 hours, im just going to play it safe and tell him to get the hell out early. With how large this storm is looking to be, and the fact its probably going to be at minimum a cat 2/3, there probably wont be too many scenarios outside of it tracking into the gulf (which seems less likely by the hour for now) that I wont be telling him to leave just to be safe. 

Also, latest GOES has it looking pretttty impressive and well organized already

yA7ZKEy.gif

 

Good advice.  I had my kit stocked and ready to go back in May.  I don't have a generator but I have a 3000W car inverter (hooks up to the car battery) so with a full tank of gas I can power most electronics.  I also have tons of family that lives between Weston (south Broward) and Jupiter (north Palm Beach) and many in between, so unless a storm is a coastal runner, I'd hope that one of them would still have power.

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Depends on the next 24 hours, it could range from "get the f out of there" completely, or "be prepared with a hurricane kit and supplies"(he has an apartment so generator not an option as far as I know). Hes in the Palm Beach area of SoFL, so if it looks like its starting to track more towards Miami or worse, makes an east coast landfall (since itd probably be even stronger  if it takes a path that curves it to make landfall moreso on the east coast of FL) im probably going to tell him its a good time to come back up here for a little while. Worst case scenario if it looks like its tracking  north of the Antilles and islands(so not getting weakened from being close to land or shear) over the next 24 hours, im just going to play it safe and tell him to get the hell out early. With how large this storm is looking to be, and the fact its probably going to be at minimum a cat 2/3, there probably wont be too many scenarios outside of it tracking into the gulf (which seems less likely by the hour for now) that I wont be telling him to leave just to be safe. 
Also, latest GOES has it looking pretttty impressive and well organized already
yA7ZKEy.gif&key=16309a6ca18ce52eaf7ae24e17b88816f5be4081c083cd70700012380c9e898d
 
We might have Laura at one of the advisories tonight, and if the center relocates north (which is very well possible), it will in fact pass north of the islands (looks like it will eyeballing that loop). A stronger storm tends to pull more poleward and models always overrun ridges (often verify weaker).

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Just some morning thoughts. As I said yesterday, folks along the coast and Gulf should be prepared to put their plan into action but there was still significant track and intensity uncertainty.

That remains the case this morning. TD 13 looks ok this morning, but it still has a fair bit of organization that needs to take place. The MLC and LLC need to align. One big question was answered last night, as convection fired persistently enough to help tighten the center and bring a designation. Dry air still lurks, but it’s not terrible relative to what we’ve seen with prior MDR systems.

V777eDd.jpg
 

13 is also heading into a better area of OHC, which should make it easier for deep convection to persist. This is something the operational Euro has been wrong on. That’s likely part of the reason the Euro continues to miss the development taking place. 

veVCV63.jpg

However the system isn’t without challenges ahead. As modeled a TUTT has formed and remains to the north of the center. This will likely put a lid on much short term development, but we’ll need to watch how quickly 13 can get away from this influence. A much more favorable environment lies ahead...assuming there’s no significant land interaction.

A4hayim.jpg
 

oLHtcbK.jpg

Given how poorly the globals have handled this so far, be careful latching onto the solutions being put out. There’s still a lot to be resolved, and hopefully recon can help in that regard today.

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