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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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Just now, tiger_deF said:

Hopefully the season cancel people quiet down for at least a little while, though I sure wish they were right 

The MDR has been the main problem. I think many said the environment further west has continued to be more favorable. 

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7:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 26.4°N 91.4°W
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 963 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

 

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT

...STEPS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...

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26 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Yes I agree.  But one thing that can also hint at if it continues  it is a strengthening system at landfall, despite the feature causing somewhat slower pressure falls.  We should still be really concerned either way even if we finally get a concentric eyewall form say right after,  at or near landfall, translation of those winds to the surface are looking more likely.   We're inside 24 hours and she still has to reach her full potential, that is really concerning to me. I really hope the folks in the cone have been taking it seriously.  It's a super tough time to have one of these land on your head and I feel for them.

 

I am directly in the middle of the cone.  Some people have been taking it seriously while some people haven’t. They think since they have made it through Rita/Ike/Harvey then they can make it through this one too

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2 minutes ago, Duncana1993 said:

I was thinking the same thing if its gets close to 140 or 135 even. Will more then likely make landfall as a Cat 4.

By the way, NHC will never report a storm as 135 MPH. They have to jump right from 130 to 140. This is because of the way winds are rounded to the nearest 5kt, converted, and rounded again to the nearest 5 MPH. 115 knots is 132.34 MPH which rounds down to 130. 120 knots is 138.09 MPH which rounds up to 140.

For the same reason, you will never see an advisory intensity of 95 MPH at the borderline of Cat. 1/2, or 170 MPH.

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1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

Seems like a decent little jog north on the last infared frame there

Just IR imagery tricking the eye, no pun intended.

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Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

Given how rapidly this has intensified and it being a major hurricane now, I'm surprised it has taken this long for an eye to pop and clear out

It's had an eye since yesterday afternoon. If you're talking about a classical symmetrical eye that is drilled down to the surface and has zero obfuscation, that will only happen when it becomes a Cat 4. 

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3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Rapidly refreshing TT

edit: 962 mb extrap

That plane has been having extrap issues all day so the sonde will be crucial

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1 minute ago, turtlehurricane said:

It's had an eye since yesterday afternoon. If you're talking about a classical symmetrical eye that is drilled down to the surface and has zero obfuscation, that will only happen when it becomes a Cat 4. 

More like a center. 

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1 minute ago, turtlehurricane said:

It's had an eye since yesterday afternoon. If you're talking about a classical symmetrical eye that is drilled down to the surface and has zero obfuscation, that will only happen when it becomes a Cat 4. 

We could definitely get there if this rapid intensification keeps on going up to landfall

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1 minute ago, tiger_deF said:

That plane has been having extrap issues all day so the sonde will be crucial

I don't think it's the plane per se, it's probably that the traditional reduction formula isn't very accurate in this situation.

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Anyone think the city of Lake Charles could be in serious trouble here? Although it is situated quite a ways off the coast, if the center comes in right along the TX/LA line the surge should push a lot of water into Calcasieu Lake and up into the Calcasieu River.

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1 minute ago, jpeters3 said:

I don't think it's the plane per se, it's probably that the traditional reduction formula isn't very accurate in this situation.

Its 10mb lower than the other plane though. Somethings wrong there. 

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Just now, CheeselandSkies said:

Anyone think the city of Lake Charles could be in serious trouble here? Although it is situated quite a ways off the coast, if the center comes in right along the TX/LA line the surge should push a lot of water into Calcasieu Lake and up into the Calcasieu River.

Yeah, i would say thats the biggest concern at this point, obviously minus the exact landfall point but that appears to be sparsely populated marshes and swamps

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2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Its 10mb lower than the other plane though. Somethings wrong there. 

It's just simple formula - doesn't mean there is "something wrong with the plane" 

Also, planes are flying at different altitudes, which probably explains the different extrapolations. 

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Just now, jpeters3 said:

It's just simple formula - doesn't mean there is "something wrong with the plane" 

Im not sure it was meant like that lol. The instrumentation is off if the extrap value is that far from reality.

 

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2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Anyone think the city of Lake Charles could be in serious trouble here? Although it is situated quite a ways off the coast, if the center comes in right along the TX/LA line the surge should push a lot of water into Calcasieu Lake and up into the Calcasieu River.

My parents live there and I’m about 20 miles west, and yes I agree this is gonna be a huge problem 

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Im not sure it was meant like that lol. The instrumentation is off if the extrap value is that far from reality.

 

It's just a simple reduction from the plane's current pressure/altitude. 

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Just now, jpeters3 said:

It's just a simple reduction from the plane's current pressure/altitude. 

I know what the hypsometric equation is. Its 10mb different than the other plane flying in the storm at the same time. Its off. 

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4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I know what the hypsometric equation is. Its 10mb different than the other plane flying in the storm at the same time. Its off. 

I find it highly unlikely that the airplane's pressure sensor is that off.  If it is, they have bigger problems.  The aircraft are flying at different altitudes, and the most likely explanation is that the standard extrapolation formula is simply inaccurate in this particular hurricane.  There are known biases with these formulas.


Edit: if you know the hypsometric equation, than you know they must make assumptions about the thermodynamic structure below the plane.  So if these assumptions are off, the extrapolation is off.

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