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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Still no winds quite supportive of cat 3 yet. 

Agreed; I'd be willing to bet we're going to get one of those sudden 20 knot jumps in FL winds within two hours. 

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Still no winds quite supportive of cat 3 yet. 

They haven't sampled the northeast quadrant in the last two hours.  There are winds present that would equate to major status, they are still elevated around 1500 feet above sea level.  105 knots in the southeast eye wall found at 925mb

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The NOAA 2 plane is heading on the southwest to northeast pass soon, they are positioning themselves right now ,heading southward in the western semi circle.

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The NOAA 2 plane is heading on the southwest to northeast pass soon, they are positioning themselves right now ,heading southward in the western semi circle.

Is there someplace you can actually watch/see this?

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1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Good post....one other "limiting" (relatively speaking re: RI) is the elliptical eye as noted in the VDM.  May hamper the rate of intensification and the potential depth of minimum pressure to be had, vs. if we had a circular eye.

Yes I agree.  But one thing that can also hint at if it continues  it is a strengthening system at landfall, despite the feature causing somewhat slower pressure falls.  We should still be really concerned either way even if we finally get a concentric eyewall form say right after,  at or near landfall, translation of those winds to the surface are looking more likely.   We're inside 24 hours and she still has to reach her full potential, that is really concerning to me. I really hope the folks in the cone have been taking it seriously.  It's a super tough time to have one of these land on your head and I feel for them.

 

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Visible imagery is going to be impressive in the next half hour.  Sunrise is beginning across Grand Isle, LA and the region.  That eye is huge!

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 11:35Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301
Storm Number & Year: 13 in 2020
Storm Name: Laura (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 21
Observation Number: 14

A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 11:03:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.21N 91.27W
B. Center Fix Location: 271 statute miles (435 km) to the SSW (196°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,806m (9,206ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 964mb (28.47 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 340° at 8kts (From the NNW at 9mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
G. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 60° to 240° (ENE to WSW)
G. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles)
G. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 78kts (89.8mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SE (126°) of center fix at 10:58:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 227° at 87kts (From the SW at 100.1mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the SE (128°) of center fix at 10:56:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 79kts (90.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the WNW (298°) of center fix at 11:06:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 17° at 81kts (From the NNE at 93.2mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NW (305°) of center fix at 11:10:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,036m (9,961ft)

R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.75 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 104kts (~ 119.7mph) which was observed 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the NE (42°) from the flight level center at 9:51:30Z

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I think its a fairly tough call on weakening before landfall. Laura kinda get embedded in ventilating upper level trough at the same time. On the global models and the hurricane models theres no suggestions of weakening before landfall. Theres a slight decrease in winds on the statistical guidance (lgem/ships)

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Thank you for another day of excellent discussion :wub:  

A friendly reminder to stay on topic and keep the banter in the appropriate thread. Now back to your regular scheduled program 

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I think its a fairly tough call on weakening before landfall. Laura kinda get embedded in ventilating upper level trough at the same time. On the global models and the hurricane models theres no suggestions of weakening before landfall. Theres a slight decrease in winds on the statistical guidance (lgem/ships)
The dynamic upper level setup for Laura is plenty impressive for today. Divergence is on the menu. Laura will be able to get the most out of the immediate shallow layer heat content.
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1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Thank you for another day of excellent discussion :wub:  

A friendly reminder to stay on topic and keep the banter in the appropriate thread. Now back to your regular scheduled program 

what she said. 

to those along the coast, be safe! 

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5 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
10 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:
I think its a fairly tough call on weakening before landfall. Laura kinda get embedded in ventilating upper level trough at the same time. On the global models and the hurricane models theres no suggestions of weakening before landfall. Theres a slight decrease in winds on the statistical guidance (lgem/ships)

The dynamic upper level setup for Laura is plenty impressive for today. Divergence is on the menu. Laura will be able to get the most out of the immediate shallow layer heat content.

Yeah. And just from a typical trend standpoint...that its strengthening today is kinda against it weakening tonight 

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12 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I think its a fairly tough call on weakening before landfall. Laura kinda get embedded in ventilating upper level trough at the same time. On the global models and the hurricane models theres no suggestions of weakening before landfall. Theres a slight decrease in winds on the statistical guidance (lgem/ships)

I was thinking the same thing if its gets close to 140 or 135 even. Will more then likely make landfall as a Cat 4.

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