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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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I hope that the LCH office evacuates with this forecast now because they really don't have much of a choice given their elevation.

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About 315 miles from the latest center coordinates to near Port Arthur. We have about 21 hours till landfall if it stays at its current 15 mph pace. Unfortunately this coincides with high tides at 1:45 am near Cameron Parish LA. 

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10 minutes ago, Calderon said:

I hope that the LCH office evacuates with this forecast now because they really don't have much of a choice given their elevation.

Surge came close to them with Rita IIRC.  

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2 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

About 315 miles from the latest center coordinates to near Port Arthur. We have about 21 hours till landfall if it stays at its current 15 mph pace. Unfortunately this coincides with high tides at 1:45 am near Cameron Parish LA. 

This should slow down a tad as it makes a more decided turn to the NNW, then N in about 15-20 hrs.  I'd say official landfall will be around 4-8am CDT.

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Just now, olafminesaw said:

Looks like the eye may be trying to clear out some

Yes best representation yet.  But note, the core is still doing a hula dance but it's more in synch from top to bottom.  That upper level representation of the eye will probably continue to wobble inside the larger envelope of the storm.  Folks should not start thinking it's moving W or SW or N or wherever on the direction of that feature.  If you're watching a loop, stick your finger over the center and watch the overall storm motion.  Focusing on the eye is like looking into the eye of a lying lover, will usually steer you wrong.

 
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The satellite evolution of the eye has been pretty textbook for 'canes going through RI....the last phase, when everything is near perfect, is the clearing out and the development of a "punch hole" eye.  We MAY not get to that point...at least based on most of the hurricane models depiction of an elongated eye throughout most of today....I still think  the NHC will require another forecast jump in top windspeeds (another 10kts or so).  I bet the recon boys/girls will be reporting some pretty low pressures in an hour or so when they get out there....959-964....????

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Just now, LakeEffectKing said:

The satellite evolution of the eye has been pretty textbook for 'canes going through RI....the last phase, when everything is near perfect, is the clearing out and the development of a "punch hole" eye.  We MAY not get to that point...at least based on most of the hurricane models depiction of an elongated eye throughout most of today....I still think  the NHC will require another forecast jump in top windspeeds (another 10kts or so).  I bet the recon boys will be reporting some pretty low pressures in an hour or so when they get out there....959-964....????

May be snugging up seat belts for a potentially a pretty rough ride, lots of lightning especially on the west side.

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10 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

The satellite evolution of the eye has been pretty textbook for 'canes going through RI....the last phase, when everything is near perfect, is the clearing out and the development of a "punch hole" eye.  We MAY not get to that point...at least based on most of the hurricane models depiction of an elongated eye throughout most of today....I still think  the NHC will require another forecast jump in top windspeeds (another 10kts or so).  I bet the recon boys/girls will be reporting some pretty low pressures in an hour or so when they get out there....959-964....????

About 20 minutes or so, actually. We'll know pretty quick. They're already reporting an expansive swath of hurricane-force winds in the NE Quad. That is just awful for the LA coast.

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Just now, David Reimer said:

About 20 minutes or so, actually. We'll know pretty quick. They're already reporting an expansive swath of hurricane-force winds in the NE Quad. That is just awful for the LA coast.

Yes...just checked.  Didn't realize they were en route.

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Just now, LakeEffectKing said:

Yes...just checked.  Didn't realize they were en route.

Speaking of which, the NOAA aircraft is carrying two and a half times the usual load of dropsondes. Normally they will drop around 20, but today's crew is going to try for 50. That'll be useful! 

 

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Pressure is falling quick, looks like winds are slightly behind but she looks very impressive right now.

 

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The increasing area of hurricane force winds may be the biggest story here (IKE). Increasing surge threat substantially. I do not think we have time before shear and land interaction to really get winds to much higher then what NHC is forecasting. But the surge is being formed as we speak 

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19 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

Speaking of which, the NOAA aircraft is carrying two and a half times the usual load of dropsondes. Normally they will drop around 20, but today's crew is going to try for 50. That'll be useful! 

 

We should have planes in the storm from here to landfall.  Cudos to them, it's not all fun and games, it's hard dangerous work. I think the HH's could be in for some rough rides with this one

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3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The increasing area of hurricane force winds may be the biggest story here. Increasing surge threat substantially. I do not think we have time before shear and land interaction to really get winds to much higher then what NHC is forecasting. But the surge is being formed as we speak 

NHC 5 am expects Laura to weaken slightly due to shear prior to landfall. Unfortunately even if that occurs if will not reduce surge much.

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3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The increasing area of hurricane force winds may be the biggest story here. Increasing surge threat substantially. I do not think we have time before shear and land interaction to really get winds to much higher then what NHC is forecasting. But the surge is being formed as we speak 

Yeah, they just increased their storm surge advisories and the SW LA coast has been upgraded to expect 10-15ft storm surge. Wouldnt be surprised if a very broad area saw double digit storm surge with Laura being fairly big already, and looking like she may get even bigger.

Also, this is fairly interesting/scary: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42395

buoy report from around 4am (when it was roughly 20-25m north of the center of Laura) that recorded a massive 37ft wave height.

Nice to see another 516 member around here btw

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Probably won’t be posting a lot today, but here’s the first VDM.

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 10:18Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301 
Storm Number & Year: 13 in 2020
Storm Name: Laura (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 21
Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 9:59:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.11N 91.05W
B. Center Fix Location: 274 statute miles (441 km) to the SSW (193°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,838m (9,311ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 969mb (28.62 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 115° at 3kts (From the ESE at 3mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
G. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 360° to 180° (N to S)
G. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles)
G. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 95kts (109.3mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (41°) of center fix at 9:53:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 130° at 104kts (From the SE at 119.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix at 9:51:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 65kts (74.8mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SW (221°) of center fix at 10:03:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 317° at 77kts (From the NW at 88.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SW (218°) of center fix at 10:02:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,066m (10,059ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 104kts (~ 119.7mph) which was observed 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the NE (43°) from the flight level center at 9:51:30Z

 

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T3Deml6.jpg

Quite the ominous picture, but crazy how big Laura has become and how quick it happened, and the worst part is she still has plenty of time to get bigger and stronger. Even crazier when you consider the rough route she took.

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-80C hot towers are rotating cyclonically around the eye of Laura.  Would not be surprised to see pressure drop another 4-6 mb in the next center fix!

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VDM confirms closed eye and appears to be trying to clear on IR. Next 6-12 hours are the window for significant intensification before increased shear begins to impact.

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NOAA aircraft measured uncontaminated 96-97 knot SFMR with similar FL winds in the eastern quad. They're circling in the eye now to play the 'dropsonde wonder' game. 

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