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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Can we get through a thread without some NE weenie fangirling over Sandy? We have been hearing it every. single. year. for. every. single. storm. 

 

 

 

what was wrong with the post? 

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Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't most of the expected landfall area sparsely populated? Would mitigate impacts from the surge if so

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13 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't most of the expected landfall area sparsely populated? Would mitigate impacts from the surge if so

It's not a metropolis but Lake Charles has a population of about 200,000, and the Beaumont–Port Arthur area has a population of 385,000.  You've got about 40 miles between metro Houston and metro Beaumont, 40 miles between Beaumont and Lake Charles, and 60 miles between Lake Charles and Lafayette.

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43 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Looks like the spin just took a big jump SW to me.

 

Storms in the state Laura is now can have MASSIVE trochoidal wobbles. 

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16 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't most of the expected landfall area sparsely populated? Would mitigate impacts from the surge if so

The problem is this system is moving somewhat fast for a GOM landfalling hurricane.  You could see widespread damage up as far as Shreveport possibly  

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28 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

We may not ever get rapid intensification. May just be a gradual strengthening up till landfall. Definitely plenty of factors to support RI but also some that could hinder it. Curious to see how it pans out. I must say though that its satellite presentation is significantly better than earlier today

Yeah patience is required lol.  Surface winds still not lining up perfectly with the weakest FL winds through the center signifying there's still some stacking issues, possibly some tilting or wobbling through the lower column.  Not uncommon in a storm developing a core.   It should start to get stacked better over the next 3 - 6 hours or so.  Not gonna see any possible significant RI, if any, until that chimney is stacked.

Blue is FL winds on that last center pass, sorry about that :D

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2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Yeah patience is required lol.  Surface winds still not lining up perfectly with the weakest FL winds through the center signifying there's still some stacking issues, possibly some tilting or wobbling through the lower column.  Not uncommon in a storm developing a core.   It should start to get stacked better over the next 3 - 6 hours or so.  Not gonna see any possible significant RI, if any, until that chimney is stacked.

 

Capture.JPG

I think we could see a cat 2 by morning. What was the time frame most models were suggesting rapid intensification? 

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2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I think we could see a cat 2 by morning. What was the time frame most models were suggesting rapid intensification? 

The last 12 to 24 hours over water after it starts to make the more northerly turn.  And I agree on a Cat 2 by morning.

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6 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I think we could see a cat 2 by morning. What was the time frame most models were suggesting rapid intensification? 

Iirc tonight through tomorrow mid-day. 

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Thats last nights run 00Z 8/25

It's the 12z per the time stamp. I realize it's fairly dated regardless, but still.  

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

Or...... Maybe it is the 0z but I transposed the valid stamp with the run stamp.

 

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It's the 12z per the time stamp. I realize it's fairly dated regardless, but still.  
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
 
 

Regardlsss of the run, we’ve noticed in the Mid-Atlantic forum that the EURO gust product is more often than not overdone. Definitely a worst-case scenario.
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094 
WTNT43 KNHC 260250
TCDAT3

Hurricane Laura Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132020
1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

Laura's cloud pattern is becoming better organized on satellite
images, with a banding feature over the eastern portion of the
circulation and an expanding central dense overcast with cloud tops
of -80C or colder.  The upper-level outflow is becoming better
established over the northwestern quadrant.  Flight-level and
SFMR-observed surface winds from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds have increased to
near 80 kt, and the central pressure is falling.  The hurricane is
expected to remain over SSTs near 30 deg C until it nears the coast,
with only moderate vertical shear.  The SHIPS Rapid Intensification
Index shows a significant probability for a 25-30 kt increase in
strength during the next 24 hours, and this is reflected in the
official forecast.  This is also between the simple and corrected
intensity model consensus predictions.  Laura will weaken rapidly
after landfall, but it will likely bring hurricane-force winds well
inland over extreme western Louisiana and eastern Texas.

Aircraft and satellite fixes show a continued west-northwestward
track with an initial motion estimate near 300/15 kt.  The track
forecast reasoning has not changed.  The hurricane should gradually
turn toward the northwest and north over the next day or two as it
moves around the western periphery of a mid-level high and into a
weakness into the subtropical ridge.  Later in the forecast period
the cyclone should turn toward the east-northeast and move with
increasing forward speed while embedded within the westerlies. The
official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and
also very close to the simple and corrected consensus track model
predictions.

Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact details of the
track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 36 h
is around 60 miles and the average intensity error is close to 10
mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will
extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge with large and
dangerous waves producing potentially catastrophic damage from San
Luis Pass, Texas, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, including
areas inside the Port Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system.
This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate
coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.
Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, 
as water levels will begin to rise on Wednesday.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Wednesday night in the warning
area from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana,
and the strongest winds associated with Laura's eyewall will occur
somewhere within this area.  Hurricane-force winds and widespread
damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into
portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.

3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and 
roadways is expected to begin Wednesday night into Thursday across 
far eastern Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas.  This will also lead to 
minor to isolated moderate river flooding.  The heavy rainfall 
threat and localized flash and urban flooding potential will spread 
northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee 
Valleys Friday night and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 25.2N  89.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 26.5N  91.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 28.7N  93.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 31.2N  93.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 48H  28/0000Z 33.7N  93.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 60H  28/1200Z 36.0N  92.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  29/0000Z 37.2N  89.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  30/0000Z 38.0N  78.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  31/0000Z 42.0N  65.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:


Regardlsss of the run, we’ve noticed in the Mid-Atlantic forum that the EURO gust product is more often than not overdone. Definitely a worst-case scenario.

Yep. Knock 20% off of those values and you'll have a more realistic depiction.

 

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The eye is likely being hidden on IR by the intense hot towers that are rotating around the LLC. I would guess we are still several hours away from seeing an eye clear out.

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Yep. Knock 20% off of those values and you'll have a more realistic depiction.
 
Still- 20% off of 80 mph- that's still about 65mph- that's definitely capable of doing some damage.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

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Just now, csnavywx said:

Yep. Knock 20% off of those values and you'll have a more realistic depiction.

 

Ha! I thought it was a precip run lol.  Put on my glasses.  It's still 00Z last night per the image.  Enough, stuffs gonna start getting serious come dawn. 

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5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


Regardlsss of the run, we’ve noticed in the Mid-Atlantic forum that the EURO gust product is more often than not overdone. Definitely a worst-case scenario.

With Isaias it was somewhat overdone here but not tremendously. It had 80-85mph gusts here and the max gust in my immediate area was 78mph. Numerous gusts over 70mph. 

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40 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

It's not a metropolis but Lake Charles has a population of about 200,000, and the Beaumont–Port Arthur area has a population of 385,000.  You've got about 40 miles between metro Houston and metro Beaumont, 40 miles between Beaumont and Lake Charles, and 60 miles between Lake Charles and Lafayette.

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I'm mostly a lurker, but yeah, I mentioned before this isn't exactly uninhabited land. lot's of refineries and exposed population. Even with as bad as the wind could get, surge is more my concern. Gonna be bad wherever this track shifts (if it does) in this general area, even if it's outside of "major" metropolitan areas. 

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Center pressure actually back up to ~980 mb this pass.  There is very intense convection firing in the south and east eyewall, but it needs to wrap around the center a bit more.

That said, this pass found 82 kts flight level, 77 kts surface, unflagged.

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I think the biggest take away from current recon besides pressure drops is we're starting to see more consistent 60KT+ FL winds  in all but the w and NW quadrants, surface center winds are beginning to drop.  The old figure skater analogy begins to apply. Lauras pulling her arms in. 

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5 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

Center drop had 981mb with 16kt wind. Almost identical to the last center drop. 

Somewhat unsurprising. Satellite presentation hasn’t changed much, if anything it’s kind of degraded a tad recently with some warming noted in the northern/NNW part of the CDO.

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