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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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Very symmetric CDO..  No sign of an eye, but I'm expecting one any minute now.

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Just now, psv88 said:

It's 2020, hurricanes dont form eyes

Plenty of canes in the east pacific with nice eyes. Also here in the central pacific, hurricane Douglas had a really nice eye before it made a close pass to Hawaii.

Maybe you could say Atlantic hurricanes don't have eyes.. yet. Laura is about to put that theory to rest.

Sorry for the OT.

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I've seen a couple takes about how no RI took place today and how it being delayed to tonight/tomorrow will end up avoiding a worst case scenario. Personally, I don't like this line of thinking. Sure it may not reach Cat 4/5 in time, but a hurricane continuing to build intensity up to and through landfall is gonna result in a serious situation for the Gulf Coast. Just see Harvey, Michael, etc for examples. Heck, even Isaias made some serious noise in the Carolinas thanks to intensification on approach.

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I gather based on current motion that we are looking at ~30 hours roughly before landfall.  Meaning this will be a Roughly 3 am Thursday event for folks along the coast.  Nothing worse in my mind than facing a hurricane like this in pitch darkness. 

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6 minutes ago, geddyweather said:

I've seen a couple takes about how no RI took place today and how it being delayed to tonight/tomorrow will end up avoiding a worst case scenario. Personally, I don't like this line of thinking. Sure it may not reach Cat 4/5 in time, but a hurricane continuing to build intensity up to and through landfall is gonna result in a serious situation for the Gulf Coast. Just see Harvey, Michael, etc for examples. Heck, even Isaias made some serious noise in the Carolinas thanks to intensification on approach.

Harvey made landfall as a category 4.

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Just now, Hotair said:

I’ve seen “eyes” pop like this previously only to be filled in shortly after 

We probably have an hour or two more before we "see" an eye on IR imagery.  Overshooting cirrus will obscure the COC, until the upper level of the eye warms enough to erode the cirrus canopy directly over the eye.

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2 minutes ago, Hotair said:

I’ve seen “eyes” pop like this previously only to be filled in shortly after 

I've lost count of the times I've seen "eyes" this year, even can't count how many graphics I've posted "eye images" and 20 minutes later thinking "Ooops, I did it again!"

Been one of the most educational years for me as a watcher/geek/learner. ;)

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37 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Probably a cat 3 by the 11am advisory. 

Very reasonable....I might go a touch earlier if Recon is in there...8-9am for CAT 3..... maybe 120mph by 11am...

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47 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said:

Earlier today with the huge coc, Laura had the look of a hurricane that had taken a beating over land as was trying to reform. 

Might explain why a poster called Laura a 'he' a few pages back.

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Storms this strong usually don't form new centers

However, it seems that blob is running off to the wsw and there's some messy stuff to the ene  near where recon found the center last pass..

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I'm willing to bet the eye hides for several more hours. These convective bursts are intense and will serve to shroud any eye that exists from IR. Without a doubt the storm is far stronger now than it was when it had the "eye" earlier.

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29 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

 

Ike and Sandy's surges are in their own league. Sandy's highest was 14, Michael's was only 10. Dolly, Gustav, Dorian, Barry, Matthew, Hermine, Isaias, Arthur, Irene, Nate, Hanna, Harvey's surges were not high at all. (Surprising considering how strong Harvey and Michael were.) Irma's was 12 feet. Isaac was 8 feet. Maria's was 12 feet.

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10 minutes ago, Amped said:

Storms this strong usually don't form new centers

However, it seems that blob is running off to the wsw and there's some messy stuff to the ene  near where recon found the center last pass..

Update: Blob running off to the south now.  looks like was just another  very misleading IR appearance. Recon found the LLC on the NE side of it.

 

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4 minutes ago, Joseph Torre said:

Ike and Sandy's surges are in their own league. Sandy's highest was 14, Michael's was only 10. Dolly, Gustav, Dorian, Barry, Matthew, Hermine, Isaias, Arthur, Irene, Nate, Hanna, Harvey's surges were not high at all. (Surprising considering how strong Harvey and Michael were.) Irma's was 12 feet. Isaac was 8 feet. Maria's was 12 feet.

Katrina and Camille are in a whole different league.  28 and 26 feet respectively. 

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Seems like winds in every quadrant but the NE are lagging quite a bit behind the pressure falls and what you would expect basing off of IR.

In other words it has a ways to go before RI can really occur. 

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7 minutes ago, Joseph Torre said:

Ike and Sandy's surges are in their own league. Sandy's highest was 14, Michael's was only 10. Dolly, Gustav, Dorian, Barry, Matthew, Hermine, Isaias, Arthur, Irene, Nate, Hanna, Harvey's surges were not high at all. (Surprising considering how strong Harvey and Michael were.) Irma's was 12 feet. Isaac was 8 feet. Maria's was 12 feet.

Michael's surge was much higher than 10 ft.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Hurricane-Michael-Brought-Water-Levels-Over-20-High-Coast

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4 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Seems like winds in every quadrant but the NE are lagging quite a bit behind the pressure falls and what you would expect basing off of IR.

In other words it has a ways to go before RI can really occur. 

We may not ever get rapid intensification. May just be a gradual strengthening up till landfall. Definitely plenty of factors to support RI but also some that could hinder it. Curious to see how it pans out. I must say though that its satellite presentation is significantly better than earlier today

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Can we get through a thread without some NE weenie fangirling over Sandy? We have been hearing it every. single. year. for. every. single. storm. 

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Amped said:

Update: Blob running off to the south now.  looks like was just another  very misleading IR appearance. Recon found the LLC on the NE side of it.

 

The COC is under the edge of the canopy.  I've seen this many times before in developing canes...a distinct "V" in the canopy....and that is where the eye will pop in an hour or so...

 

 

LauraV.png

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