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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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1 minute ago, JasonOH said:

Those are hot towers going up. The name is funny because what you actually see on IR are very cold cloud tops.  

Yes....and they are excellent vorticity advection features... As an eye goes through the process of  clearing, pressures will tumble, and winds will correspondingly ramp up quickly!!!

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1 minute ago, Prospero said:

Like cool whip on top of a hot fudge sundae?

Laura looks good, as good as I have seen this year. But every time I think I see an eye this year, it is not.
Will see I guess.

It takes awhile to construct an eyewall, and then a bit more time, depending on environmental conditions, to have it become circular....then as feeder bands feed into the core, we see all the thermodynamic energy from the ocean nearby, concentrating into the eyewall.  That's when BOOM happens.  Steady, vigorous increase intensity will take place for the next 3-6 hours...then we very well could see true RI soon afterward.

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

18z euro is east...with a landfall near tx/la border. Looks like the nhc folks might be decent at their jobs. 

Absolutely!!  Still may be some wrinkles down the road...Let's see if there is some often under modeled and infamous "ridge pumping" to be had... :)

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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

18z euro is east...with a landfall near tx/la border. Looks like the nhc folks might be decent at their jobs. 

Way to jinx it right into Galveston 

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1 minute ago, FLweather said:

Huh?

 

Laura had a broad weak eye today. Just very broad. That wasn't dry air. Wasnt necessarily shear either. I'm beginning to think that the last 2-4 hours the SLC took over.  That impulse on the southern side was the mid level low.

That was just the beginning of a eyewall replacement cycle and stacking of the vorticies. 

 

 

Definitely not an EWRC....there was no "EW" to replace.

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Yes people are way to quick to throw out the EWRC term...hurricanes have no reason to replace an eyewall that they haven't even finished building. Saw people do this on forums with Michael, too.

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7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

18z euro is east...with a landfall near tx/la border. Looks like the nhc folks might be decent at their jobs. 

The earlier EPS run that had like no members making landfall in Louisiana seemed like an unusual lack of dispersion by that product... I mean, not even a handful.  Curious to see the member distribution on the 18z run.

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Ohh a cyan ring. 

Yeah, we are at the cusp of completing a solid, closed EW....

Nick, what's your thoughts on intensification tonight?

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Just now, LakeEffectKing said:

Yeah, we are at the cusp of completing a solid, closed EW....

Nick, what's your thoughts on intensification tonight?

Probably a cat 3 by the 11am advisory. 

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4 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Definitely not an EWRC....there was no "EW" to replace.

Just asking for some friends....when do you take the blindfold off ???

:bag:

101916470_COD-GOES-East-global-halfdiskeastnorth.simplewv.20200826.000020-overmap-bars.thumb.gif.b55a60af360bd98ae30958d5f5c3324e.gif

 

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9 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Definitely not an EWRC....there was no "EW" to replace.

Earlier today with the huge coc, Laura had the look of a hurricane that had taken a beating over land as was trying to reform.  It wasn't of course, but if I were shown a pic not knowing the history i'd have assumed it came off the Yucatan. 

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10 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Ohh a cyan ring. 

Thought this article was interesting to have people understand the cyan ring.

[6] After examining many 37color images of the entire life cycle of TCs, we hypothesize that the first appearance of a well‐defined cyan color ring pattern in the inner core immediately surrounding the warm center is associated with RI. The purpose of this study is to test this hypothesis. Using the 37color images collected for 84 named TCs during 2003–2007 hurricane seasons in the North Atlantic basin, the ring pattern is searched for within each satellite overpass that captures the TC inner core. The following criteria are used to define a ring pattern: 1) It immediately surrounds the warm center of the developing TC; 2) It is symmetric (round) and should be at least 90% closed (not a partial ring); 3) The minimum thickness between the inner and outer edges of the ring should be at least one‐fourth of the diameter of the outer edges; 4) The ring should consist of mostly solid bright cyan and not a faded cyan; 5) Part of the ring could be pink (intense convection overlaying cyan ring).

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I would have thought Marco would have drained some of the heat from the ocean Path Laura Is on.  But it doesn’t look that way at all

 

 

407171F4-EE78-43BF-BF38-6DB6E0202852.png

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1 minute ago, FLweather said:

There had to be something just very immature stages. 

Its obvious that satellite imagery earlier today captured an eye.  Shear and dry air was not the contributor. With the blob to the south feeding into the Laura tonight. 

That's obviously the Mid level low. 

Might not be a true ewrc. But the beginning. 

What? There is no sign of an outer ring of convection/moat between the newly forming eyewall and the exterior. Nor should there be with a storm just getting it going like this.

Please stop.

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I saw the 18z euro. I was a little puzzled and worried that the EPS wasn’t getting respect earlier, but the latest guidance says NHC doing very well just with minor adjustments. 

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Agree with all here.  It is getting act together finally.  Just have to smooth things out with the active convective blobs around the center.  It will likely take another 6-8 hr to get in a position for significant RI.  The large, discrete convective blob to S is going away as well.  Now looking more like a typical hurricane.

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Latest pass had 981.1mb extrapolated pressure. The pass before had 983.9mb so the pressure is likely dropping at ~1.5mb/hr.  The minimum pressure is still a bit offset from the wind minimum so there is still a slight vortex tilt.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I saw the 18z euro. I was a little puzzled and worried that the EPS wasn’t getting respect earlier, but the latest guidance says NHC doing very well just with minor adjustments. 

Yeah...it was a bit puzzling...to have a pretty dramatic shift over 2 runs....now...does it shift back??  All of tonight's model runs should come a bit more into consensus.

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ADT's really picking up this intensification.

2020AUG25 225020  3.6  985.5  57.0  3.6 3.7 3.7  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF -62.04 -63.57  UNIFRM   N/A    9.9   24.91   88.73  FCST    GOES16 32.8 
2020AUG25 232020  3.6  985.5  57.0  3.6 3.7 3.7  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF -35.00 -63.51  UNIFRM   N/A    9.9   24.97   88.84  FCST    GOES16 32.9 
2020AUG25 235020  3.7  984.2  59.0  3.7 4.1 5.7  0.5T/hour OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF -24.01 -66.64  EYE    -99 IR   9.9   25.02   88.96  FCST    GOES16 33.0 

First pass that shows an "Eye" detection. Rapid strengthening limiter is on. Raw ADT number jumped 2.0 so expect the storm to "catch up" to this T-rating over the next several hours. It's on!

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Just now, Prospero said:

I was on the road a bit today, so missed any eye. Looking at 200 frames I don't see it.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-13-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined'

Is there a graphic someone can share.

Did Isiais ever get a good eye? Now I can't remember. Any other storm this year? (A busy year...)

 

There's never been an "eye" today. Organization? Yes. I would say she looks the best she has all day currently.

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1 minute ago, Prospero said:

I was on the road a bit today, so missed any eye. Looking at 200 frames I don't see it.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-13-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined'

Is there a graphic someone can share.

Did Isiais ever get a good eye? Now I can't remember. Any other storm this year? (A busy year...)

 

Not really. Hanna almost did, but ran out of water.

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