• Member Statistics

    16,123
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    XC700
    Newest Member
    XC700
    Joined
WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

Recommended Posts

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Ike had one of the largest IKEs in the Atlantic history...

Yeah hopefully I'm wrong but this thing is sucking up a big dome of water, should be a Cat 3, and that area is so low-lying. Bad news.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Floydbuster said:

Yeah hopefully I'm wrong but this thing is sucking up a big dome of water, should be a Cat 3, and that area is so low-lying. Bad news.

Right but I disagree with the storm surge rivaling Ike. Ike was huge. 

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

Ike had one of the largest IKEs in the Atlantic history...

Yes but don't forget the gfs based models might be underdoing the final intensity slightly. Ecmwf had a 939 mb landfall at 12z, and given the overall size of the eye developingg, the surge is going to be bad no 2 ways about it.

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Posted this in banter but was actually very intrigued to hear some responses from all you knowledgeable peeps. Felt like it was appropriate considering it directly had to do with the cane itself.

Two questions. 
1. Anyone care to guess what some of those cumulonimbi tops are in this ring wrapping around the center?

2. Anyone with aviation knowledge know what the p3 and other weather aircraft are programmed with or what is installed in the cone of the planes to avoid direct lightning strikes or how it is “safe” and I use that word laughing flying into something like this?

Aircraft are designed to not have issues when stuck by lighting. There’s not much lightning in hurricanes so lightning is not a big deal at all. Basically lightning is a non factor.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, wizard021 said:

Yes but don't forget the gfs based models might be underdoing the final intensity slightly. Ecmwf had a 939 mb landfall at 12z, and given the overall size of the eye developingg, the surge is going to be bad no 2 ways about it.

The surge is worse if the hurricane reaches its max intensity well before the coast and if the storm is very large. The water doesn't pile up on the shore instantly. Its why Rita Ike and Katrina all had huge surges. 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like shes starting to bomb away, a good 6-8mb drop in 3 hours WITHOUT a fully closed off eye wall...

and some really impressive convection firing off now

https://i.imgur.com/ntXj8sY.mp4

Shes setting up to be potentially catastrophic, regardless if she reaches "official" cat 4 or greater, she looks like shes going to cause a lot of damage between the surge and rainfall and winds. Hopefully by some miracle she stays as subdued as possible, but things arent looking good right now unfortunately.

  • Weenie 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, JasonOH said:

COD doesn’t have microwave anywhere iirc. That’s GOES IR. The microwave stuff is from polar orbiting sats.

yea i know...look at those storms firing...

How do you embed the animation? Cant figure it out.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Right but I disagree with the storm surge rivaling Ike. Ike was huge. 

Ike damage on Bolivar Peninsula was nightmarish if I remember correctly?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Laura appears likely to affect many of the same areas heavily impacted by Rita. Of course Rita was on a general weakening trend but the time spent as a Cat 5 helped to build up the surge. Even though it was past its peak Rita still caused significant wind damage also. IIRC there was a remnant of the eye wall that remained vigorous and caused fair amount of damage into far E. Texas.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

That shows Cat 5 is off the table

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

Only off the table because the chart doesn't give probabilities in excess of 40kt/24hr and we are land falling in just over 24 hours. Remember Hurricane Michael last year that had RI right up until landfall. Never assume it's off the table, just assume it's very unlikely.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

Only off the table because the chart doesn't give probabilities in excess of 40kt/24hr and we are land falling inside 24 hours. Remember Hurricane Michael last year that had RI right up until landfall. Never assume it's off the table, just assume it's very unlikely.

Most models agree on 950-960 mb at least which would be 100-105k cat 3 probably. Whether Laura can get any stronger will probably depend on the shear. If it jumped to 20 kt before landfall like some models are showing anything above that at landfall is not likely IMHO

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Random Chaos said:

Only off the table because the chart doesn't give probabilities in excess of 40kt/24hr and we are land falling inside 24 hours. Remember Hurricane Michael last year that had RI right up until landfall. Never assume it's off the table, just assume it's very unlikely.

FWIW it also has 70kt /48 hours and that product does have the effects of landfall included. It really doesn't matter what time period the products are for in this case.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Damn I wish I could post a picture.  Phone acting stupid. 

Any mets notice that quick moving features on IR satellite loop. Looked like a pulsating line then convection blows up on SW side.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, FLweather said:

Damn I wish I could post a picture.  Phone acting stupid. 

Any mets notice that quick moving features on IR satellite loop. Looked like a pulsating line then convection blows up on SW side.

 

Those are hot towers going up. The name is funny because what you actually see on IR are very cold cloud tops.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, JasonOH said:

Those are hot towers going up. The name is funny because what you actually see on IR are very cold cloud tops.  

I said exactly this back a few weeks ago when Isaias was around. Kind of an Oxymoron if you will. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, WinterWolf said:

I said exactly this back a few weeks ago when Isaias was around. Kind of an Oxymoron if you will. 

Like cool whip on top of a hot fudge sundae?

Laura looks good, as good as I have seen this year. But every time I think I see an eye this year, it is not.
Will see I guess.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.