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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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Pretty interesting changes last few frames. The blob seems to be consolidating with Laura. Her symmetry is improving and the eye is closing with that flare up.

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We have a 15 foot hurricane protection levee here in south Jefferson county. It was close with Ike and that went in about 65 miles west of us. Keeping my fingers cross.

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Hot towers still having a bit of trouble on the west side. They form but don’t die off before reaching the SE quad. There’s a big hot tower that started SE and has made it to the NE quad so far and is going strong. That’s a good sign for organization but until there are 2 hot towers rotating around the core I’m not too confident in short term (next couple hours) strengthening.

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I’m sure 9ft would be problematic for those unfortunate enough to experience it,  but I would have expected higher surge from a possible CAT 3 on approach. 13 ft However does seem consistent with a major cane in the GOM 

Surge and it’s resulting inundation can’t be measured just by the height of the water. The topography and elevation of the affected area are critical factors in what devastation will take place. Surge from Cat 5 Michael was around 19ft. Due to elevation rises close to the coast the surge moved less than a mile inland at its worst points. Most of the areas under the surge warning for Laura have minimal elevation rises for many miles inland. In looking at the surge maps you can see how far inland 9ft will travel.


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19 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

Hot towers still having a bit of trouble on the west side. They form but don’t die off before reaching the SE quad. There’s a big hot tower that started SE and has made it to the NE quad so far and is going strong. That’s a good sign for organization but until there are 2 hot towers rotating around the core I’m not too confident in short term (next couple hours) strengthening.

Tried posting a pic however my phone is being dumb. What you alluded to looks like there is a solid band of -80 on the southern/sw end of the storm maintaining. The band continues to wrap around now approaching the northern portion. Also appears to be a pinpoint of -60 to -70 around the LLC that had strengthened and possibly pushed some of that “drier air” out to help the processes on the western end. Looks like all systems go once that transpires. Interested to see how she looks by 2100-2200 hrs. 

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Whatever that feature to her south is quickly aiding in that flare up. What a difference over the last 2 hours. 

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Massive hot towers starting to blow up on the north side of the circulation. Could see an attempt to wrap around fully and a more classic eye type feature develop over the next few hours. 

Regardless, the storm structure has improved over the last six hours and we will see if she makes an effort to consolidate her inner core further into tonight. Recon is coming in at an interesting time 

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At a "glance"....

Seems, coordinating with the expected arrival of Laura with the NHC  Landfall,, (arrival time(s))..

Tides in this area(s) of the Low Country are going to be RISING, in the Early AM Hours on Thursday..

For example Only,, the Mermentau River entrance tide table (for example High tide, occurs at 1:15 AM Thursday Morning)..

 

This could be VERY Problematic for those area(s), on the East Side of Landfall..

(As occurred HERE in N.C. with Isaias ).. High Tide,, Coupled with Landfalling, (Just BARELY a Cat 1) caused Massive amounts of damage here in N.C.

NOW just think a High-end Cat 2 or Cat-3 landfalling in the Lowcountry down there could be... Well,, It just might,, get quite sporty..

Forecasted Swell,, NOT SURGE.. @15 feet with 70 MPH ESE wind(s) sustained??  OH MY... (CAT-1)??  

https://www.tide-forecast.com/locations/Mermentau-River-entrance-Louisiana/forecasts/latest/six_day

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7 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

18z gefs para ens on la/tx border.

Only one member west of Galveston bay on this run.

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Recon found 983.9 mb (~29.06 inHg)

Edit: They even missed the center too, could be a few mb lower than this 

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

8 foot surge here from Sandy (10 ft storm tide because of the high tide) was pretty bad to say the least. Can’t imagine what a 13 ft surge would’ve been like. 

Hurricane Agnes in 1972 was the highest storm surge in Pinellas County Florida during my lifetime as far as I know (St. Petersburg - Tampa Bay) at 10-feet. And that was after the winds passed by and Agnes just hung out in the Gulf for a while well north of us.

Large areas of the county were under water, the old Sunshine Skyway Bridge was under water, downtown Gulfport was totally flooded in several feet of churning water, we lost a lot of piers and businesses on the coast. I was 12 years old and we lived a few blocks from the bay in St Pete. That morning the waves were in our driveway and yard. And we were up on a higher area than most of the neighborhood. I remember at the highest level it was not raining and the wind was light, but it seemed the water kept coming in wave after wave.

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Just now, schoeppeya said:

There is some pretty incredible ventilation in the northeast quadrant of the storm right now. 

Looks like it may be finally starting to vent a bit to the NW.  

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Just now, JasonOH said:

Looks like it may be finally starting to vent a bit to the NW.  

It has definitely improved considerably 

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Counting 3 vortical hot towers in the formative eyewall as of right now. Will have to see if these sustain and are able to close off the eye. If so, this might herald the period of stronger intensification tonight into tomorrow that many, including myself, were expecting.

 

3c24899c-dbef-4243-8870-f8cf7eb9c8bb.png

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3 minutes ago, SENC said:

I  looked into some more, Tide Charts,,,  Specifically La/TX border Region(s) & Parishes.. For example ,,   Cameron, Louisiana

Laura will Arrive, Just as HIGH TIDES are Occurring..

Some of us remember Hurricane Camille in 1969 with a 24 foot storm surge that took too many people by surprise. Hurricane parties in hotels on the beach were washed away during the landfall killing dozens of foolish people. Granted I was in Colorado Springs at the time, but we Cub Scouts went around collecting food and supplies for victims after that.

 

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2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

This storm surge is gonna be big. That whole area is just so damn susceptible. 

Surge should be average for its strength right? There is no incredible fetch. 

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1 minute ago, hlcater said:

Counting 3 vortical hot towers in the formative eyewall as of right now. Will have to see if these sustain and are able to close off the eye. If so, this might herald the period of stronger intensification tonight into tomorrow that many, including myself, were expecting.

Yeah, we're finally seeing some better eyewall definition on satellite.

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Surge should be average for its strength right? There is no incredible fetch. 

Should rival ike , given the large storm size and intensity.

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Posted this in banter but was actually very intrigued to hear some responses from all you knowledgeable peeps. Felt like it was appropriate considering it directly had to do with the cane itself.

Two questions. 
1. Anyone care to guess what some of those cumulonimbi tops are in this ring wrapping around the center?

2. Anyone with aviation knowledge know what the p3 and other weather aircraft are programmed with or what is installed in the cone of the planes to avoid direct lightning strikes or how it is “safe” and I use that word laughing flying into something like this?

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