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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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12 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

8e124e20d7e894bc2aaaccbef945db0d.gif 

Clearly see what seems to be a rather large eye forming just injesting dry air at the moment.  The Euro is probably right with Laura taking off tonight raid intensification once the center gets stacked and established after the southerly shear diminishes. 

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12z round up:

GFS: ~957 mb Landfall near Port Arthur.

ECMWF: ~937 mb Landfall between Galveston and Port Arthur.

UKMET: ~959 mb Landfall near Galveston.

ICON: ~960 mb Landfall between Galveston and Port Arthur.

HWRF: ~952 mb Landfall near Port Arthur.

HMON: ~958 mb Landfall just east of Port Arthur.

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9 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Here's a little storm-relative zoom over the center over the past few hours...

b11ff9bffc6d3b43b996992c4ea6d438.gif

Looks like it might be trying to make a big messy eye like the HRRR is showing. Definitely trying to wrap around and cut off the dry air

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Just now, Superstorm93 said:

 

Could also be a dry slot. IR looks pretty unimpressive in that quad right now. 

100% on the dry slot train here. Many of the GIV soundings are super dry at the origin of that airmass. Probably took a bit of a gulp. 

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Although Laura is better organized than yesterday with decent banding and an inner core, I still see continuing issues for RI anytime soon.  First is that the core convection keeps pulsing up and down.  That says dry air is still entertaining into the core.  You can see on the 15z mid-level WV image dry air to its NW and NE.  Second, this elongation N-S.  It is has been very persistent in the last 24 hr and the large area of strong convection separate from the core is really not a good thing to have as it does not allow symmetric circular banding and outflow to take shape.  This southern blob of convection is also pulsing which continues to send low-level outflows N into the LLCC. 

One of the more bizarre hurricanes I have seen, esp. with the elongation N-S of the deep convection.

12z SHIPS guidance here. 

http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2020/al132020/stext/20082512AL1320_ships.txt

Mid-level RH stays 61% or below up until landfall, and you can see a jump in shear to 22 kt just before landfall.  This suggests that significant or rapid intensification is going to be hard to come by.

 

 

goes16_ir_13L_202008251707.gif

g16wvmid.jpg

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18Z SHIPS just in. There is a modest tick up in RI probabilities. Also notice that the RI probabilities are baselined at 70 kts which is what SHIPS initialized at. NHC advisory was only at 65 kts.

                                 *                  GFS version                   *
                                 * ATLANTIC     2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                                 * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                                 *  LAURA       AL132020  08/25/20  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
V (KT) NO LAND    70    76    80    84    88    90    85    79    71    68    60    59    57    48    37    26    18
V (KT) LAND       70    76    80    84    88    90    48    33    29    28    28    31    29    20    23    15   N/A
V (KT) LGEM       70    76    82    87    90    93    49    34    29    28    28    33    37    37    31    34    33
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP

SHEAR (KT)         8     3     9    12     9    21    25    18    14    23    27    40    59    60    72    74    71
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     6     4     1     1     0     4     4     3     2     6     3     3     0    -7   -10    -7   -12
SHEAR DIR         21   356   306   310   290   263   257   272   263   254   244   241   210   214   230   253   246
SST (C)         30.2  30.3  30.3  30.1  29.9  30.4  31.6  30.8  29.8  30.0  28.6  24.5  19.6  18.9  15.0  12.8  11.3
POT. INT. (KT)   173   172   172   173   169   172   173   172   168   173   151   107    84    81    73    70    68
ADJ. POT. INT.   164   163   163   158   152   159   173   160   144   154   138    99    79    76    70    67    66
200 MB T (C)   -50.7 -50.3 -50.6 -50.4 -49.9 -49.5 -49.3 -49.9 -50.7 -51.7 -52.4 -52.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -52.4 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C)   0.4   0.4   0.5   0.6   0.8   1.4   1.6   1.1   0.6   0.8   0.5   0.6   1.2   1.4   2.1   1.6   1.6
TH_E DEV (C)      12    11    11    10    11    10    12     7    10     5     9     4     2     0     0     0     0
700-500 MB RH     54    57    56    61    61    58    56    55    61    61    53    52    51    56    49    43    49
MODEL VTX (KT)    24    24    25    26    26    26    23    19    14    14    10    13    17    17    17    16    19
850 MB ENV VOR    46    42    17     4   -10   -60   -45   -92    -8    27   111   198   206   179   145   146   121
200 MB DIV        35    51    32    29    38    28    26    23    16    47    40    60    79    72    78    43    18
700-850 TADV       0    -4    -5     0     4    29     2    43     3    42    52   -27    19   -18   -58   -45   -57
LAND (KM)        303   376   401   310   254    30  -258  -527  -653  -721  -372   100   156    86   -22   435   796
LAT (DEG N)     24.3  24.9  25.5  26.4  27.2  29.5  32.1  34.6  36.3  37.4  38.2  39.7  42.1 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x 
LONG(DEG W)     87.6  88.8  90.0  91.1  92.2  93.4  93.5  92.8  90.3  86.1  80.0  73.0  65.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)    14    12    13    13    13    12    13    12    15    21    27    29    30    26    24    21    20
HEAT CONTENT      52    63    68    56    39    47     7     6     5     5     3     0     0     0     0     0     0

 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  22% is   4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  42% is   3.9 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  29% is   4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  24% is   6.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  15% is   6.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  18% is   3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  13% is   2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  15% is   2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    21.7%   42.0%   29.4%   24.4%   15.3%   17.9%   12.6%   14.8%
    Logistic:    14.0%   35.5%   24.9%   26.4%   15.5%   26.5%   15.2%    2.0%
    Bayesian:    21.7%   37.4%   14.7%    1.8%    0.3%    4.3%    0.2%    0.0%
   Consensus:    19.2%   38.3%   23.0%   17.5%   10.4%   16.2%    9.4%    5.6%
       DTOPS:    32.0%   73.0%   41.0%   17.0%    2.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%

 

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17 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

 

Could also be a dry slot. IR looks pretty unimpressive in that quad right now. 

:facepalm:

 

Didn’t we *just* go through this with Isaias ad nauseum? 

She’s wrapping up and gaining symmetry. Let’s not overthink this....She’s a cat 1 for a reason. Cat 1’s are never aesthetically appealing...that’s why they’re cat 1’s...

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

Hmm... the new recon plane decided to go around the storm first, rather than directly through the center.

it's the upper level plane that's sampling the atmosphere around the storm

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Just now, jbenedet said:

:facepalm:

 

Didn’t we *just* go through this with Isaiah ad nauseum? 

He’s wrapping up and gaining symmetry. Let’s not overthink this....He’s a cat 1 for a reason. Cat 1’s are never aesthetically appealing...that’s why they’re cat 1’s...

Yeah I think thats an eye too. 

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4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah I think thats an eye too. 

Turns out the air is dry in the eye.  Who would have thought...

There is a little bit too much obsession with dry air in here, IMO.  It really takes shear to get dry air into the core of TCs, so it all points back to shear being the main hinderance.  And I think there was clear evidence (at least earlier today) of some northerly shear.  If shear does indeed drop below 5 kts, and if there is a closed eyewall by that point, I doubt dry air will have much of an effect on intensification.  

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4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah I think thats an eye too. 

I do to. Looks midway through a step-wise improvement on satellite . Laura in process of graduating from Cat 1 to Cat 2 status

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6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

:facepalm:

 

Didn’t we *just* go through this with Isaias ad nauseum? 

He’s wrapping up and gaining symmetry. Let’s not overthink this....He’s a cat 1 for a reason. Cat 1’s are never aesthetically appealing...that’s why they’re cat 1’s...

Also, shouldn't you be saying "she"??? :P

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5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I do to. Looks midway through a step-wise improvement on satellite . Laura in process of graduating from Cat 1 to Cat 2 status

perhaps so I was overzealous in discrediting the eye, but the lack of convection on the western side/pulse-y nature of towers there suggests that there is still some entrainment happening. That being said, I agree with @jpeters3 in that I think dry air entrainment will likely diminish in influence as shear also diminishes. For now, the satellite presentation is indicative of one that has *some* dry air in it, at least as I interpret it. 

 

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

From Ryan Maue, the 12z Euro ensemble tracks.... a shift east from recent runs.

EgSbWtAXYAA_F5-.jpg

Thanks. Houston is going to have to sweat this one out. Too close for comfort.

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18 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

quality tower finally went up on west side

 

Now on the SW and with a counterpart on the NE...maybe the start of a more symmetric CDO. Throw my hat in the ring for the appearance of an eye at some point. If not then it was a good head fake :)

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Just now, hlcater said:

perhaps  so, but the lack of convection on the western side/pulse-y nature of towers there suggests that there is still some entrainment happening. That being said, I agree with @jpeters3 in that I think dry air entrainment will likely diminish in influence as shear also diminishes. For now, the satellite presentation is indicative of one that has *some* dry air in it, at least as I interpret it. 

We are splitting hairs here honestly. Every loop I see shows a system that is organizing. And more recently the organization appears faster than earlier in the day....

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Definitely still mixing out some dry air, but also some very clear improvements to the north and west side of the structure, including expanding cirrus in both quadrants and a substantial tower on the southwest side.

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Just now, jbenedet said:

We are splitting hairs here honestly. Every loop I see shows a system that is organizing. And more recently the organization appears faster than earlier in the day....

Pretty much and I wont disagree with you there lol. Just mentioning in passing that some of that dryness north and west of the circulation probably got drawn in to the circulation hence the general lack of deep convection there. I don't see this being a massive hindrance, I dont. More of a bump in the road....

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

We are splitting hairs here honestly. Every loop I see shows a system that is organizing. And more recently the organization appears faster than earlier in the day....

While we are splitting hairs, it looks like the northward outflow is becoming less restricted, with CDO starting to blow off in that direction.  So maybe the shear has wained. 

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Pretty clear it is going to strengthen significantly tonight/tomorrow. It has been since yesterday. Shear will be negligible for the next 24 hours. Only issue I can see is dry air in the mid levels.

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