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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Crazy how much dry air has plagued systems this year. NHC has been saying a very moist environment but there's definitely some drier air in the western Gulf. Curious if this will keep Laura in check. Some dry air definitely hindering convection on western side

I think shear is the real culprit here.  It shows up in the analysis, and in the visible loop as cirrus anvils being blown southward of convective cores to the north of the CDO. 

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The MLC to the NW just died. A step in the organization process at least.  I don't think it's ready to take off anytime soon though.

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8 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

I think shear is the real culprit here.  It shows up in the analysis, and in the visible loop as cirrus anvils being blown southward of convective cores to the north of the CDO. 

Is it suppose to relax at all? Doesn't seem like that was well modeled. 

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41 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

He made another tweet lol 

Thanks. I guess I should follow Levi on Twitter.

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Is it suppose to relax at all? Doesn't seem like that was well modeled. 

Model forecast is for it to relax for the next ~ 36 hours.  We shall see.

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58 minutes ago, Down The Rabbit Hole said:

Mets correct me if I'm wrong, but I understand it's a handful of things: the speed of the trough in the Great Plains, the GFS showing a TX/LA landing, and the desire not to cause panic that leads to a Rita-level traffic jam (and subsequent deaths) by showing a Category 3+ through the heart of Houston, especially when there's still such uncertainty.

It's a tough forecast in more than one way.

FFS, no. 

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Just now, jpeters3 said:

Model forecast is for it to relax for the next ~ 36 hours.  We shall see.

Yea seems like one thing is forecasted and the opposite happens. Ha. Laura definitely isn't looking supportive of RI anytime soon

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If this is going to reach major status we’re going to have to start seeing some significant changes in organization by tonight. Namely, an expansion of the cdo to the north and northwest and better outflow. Heard a lot of talk of dual outflow channels under a favorable H5 setup but that has yet to manifest itself today. Definitely leveled off today on the strengthening front, as evidenced by the flattening pressure drop. Not saying the system is not going to strengthen, but to make a move towards a major and with landfall sometime tomorrow evening/night, there is not a tremendous amount of time for Laura to mess around in the current stage of it will reach major status before that time. Certainly plenty of time to go but the longer she waits that window will begin to close. Just a thought. Overall she’s a healthy system and I fully expect her to begin strengthening again soon 

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Good thread with respect to the PV streamer that has been imparting subsidence and northerly shear into the northern semicircle of Laura as it traversed the GA over the past few days. The remnants of that feature is weakening today due to forcing and diabetic heating aloft via Laura's convective envelope, though subtle subsidence is still there. That should gradually diminish as the overall upper 200 hPa flow becomes predominantly southeasterly. Convection should be able to expand north and northwest around Laura's circulation as a strong poleward channel increases tomorrow into the central CONUS.

 

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It does seem like shear and dry air have slowed its ability to organize to a certain extent, still has time to strengthen though given we are still 40 plus hours from landfall.

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Hopefully this doesn’t pull a Michael and explode just before landfall. You’d almost want it to go crazy now and get lucky with an ERC at landfall or other constraint like Rita. 

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People seem to be forgetting that there are still two diurnal maxes yet to go under favorable conditions. Keep in mind even the most intense solutions(think HWRF runs previously) didn't really start sending this to the deep end until later today. The key is gonna be whether or not convective bursts can develop tighter core which would obviously hasten intensification. I look at tomorrow and I don't really see any real reason on guidance why this wouldn't deepen and probably quite quickly. There is that shear that begins to be imparted ~12hrs before landfall, but the environment from about 21z today through 00z Thursday should be quite good. I still like the prospects of a ~940mb landfall with winds of ~105kts. 

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

At least thats a less destructive track than on the other side of the bay. 

True, worryingly close though. Hopefully we see a shift slightly east, though Port Arthur would see quite an impact in that case.

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3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

At least thats a less destructive track than on the other side of the bay. 

Terrible news for Port Arthur/Beaumont though.

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Just now, hlcater said:

Terrible news for Port Arthur/Beaumont though.

Lots of oil infrastructure and shipping there. It would be better than Galveston for sure but anywhere on the upper TX coast would be a major impact generally. The only “good” options are Cameron Parish LA or maybe down toward Port O’Connor which is less populated. 

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2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

True, worryingly close though. Hopefully we see a shift slightly east, though Port Arthur would see quite an impact in that case.

It's a Hurricane magnet, always ends up being ground zero.

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There is quite a weakness of the 500 ridge west of LA. While the sw bias near term trends are interesting that may not shove the landfall point much further west since there seems to be weakness/pocket right near the LA/TX border that Laura would naturally gravitate to. 

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3 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

8e124e20d7e894bc2aaaccbef945db0d.gif 

Convection has been doing a better job rotating upshear the past couple of hours and the anvils that had been floating southward do not seem to be doing that as much as they had been either. Looks like decent evidence that northerly shear may finally be starting to lessen somewhat. However, the profile is still extremely dry yet and this may prove to inhibit Laura until that can get mixed out. Can see thunderstorms in N hemisphere collapsing and gusting out along with the obvious dry punch right into the core. The GIV mission from this morning only confirms this. Profile is quite dry above 850.

3ab25ed815d28def1f5448f3f51b1b81.png

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18 minutes ago, Down The Rabbit Hole said:

I've been around Houston-area officials and mets enough to know that this is a concern, even if it's not a primary one. One that causes a bias toward conservatism in forecasting, not toward obfuscating information.

Obviously, it’s a concern, but any met who factors that into their forecast should immediately lose their job. 

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17 minutes ago, Nibor said:

QU8NNpy.png

Big pressure differences between the Euro and the other globals, as the Euro shows 937 mbar, the UK 959 mbar, the GFS 957 mbar and the CMC 969 mbar right around landfall.  I don't know enough about these models and their pressure biases to know how big of a deal this is - let's hope for the sake of the people in TX/LA that the Euro is overdone - we don't need a calamity on top of COVID.  All of them show landfall between Galveston and the TX/LA border.  

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10 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

8e124e20d7e894bc2aaaccbef945db0d.gif 

I like this loop. There is brief period where you can see the low level clouds (green) racing east underneath the dense overcast (yellow).

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