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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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4 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

Still experiencing ~ 15 kt of northerly shear, which seems like the likely culprit to me.

 

 

Very interesting. What's the data source for those plots? Obviously the UWISC shear plots have <5 knots of shear...

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On visible, looks like in the last few frames there might be an eye starting to form. 

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7 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Also 979 to 983 mb which is a far cry from 948-951 shown by GFS and Euro. ... I am beginning to have this feeling that Laura may deal with some semblance of dry air intrusion from time to time which could keep her in check??  My gut is telling me with this in mind I think we are seeing a high end Cat 2 at landfall perhaps as high as Cat 3 120 mph winds at landfall.

Really because of the CMC? This thing is gonna strengthen as it reaches landfall. 

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5 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Very interesting. What's the data source for those plots? Obviously the UWISC shear plots have <5 knots of shear...

This is from Colorado state's / CIRA site.  Makes sense given the satellite appearance.

 

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al132020

Here is the description of the product 

AMSU Area-Averaged Wind Shears and Layer Means

These products use the balanced 3-D wind field derived from the AMSU temperature retrievals to estimate the area averaged vertical wind shear and mass weighted deep-layer mean wind in two layers (200 to 850hPa and 500 to 850Hpa). For these calculations the area averaging is calculated in the area contained within 0 to 600km from the center of the cyclone. These are displayed for each AMSU retrieval time available. These may be useful for detecting rapid changes in the synoptic wind field. The reliability of the vertical wind shear estimates is documented in Zehr et al. (2008).

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1 minute ago, friedmators said:

Looks like both planes are having comms issues.


.

NOAA2 finished its mission.  Only AF300 is (maybe) in the storm.  AF300 is the one with comms issues.

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2020-08-25_122044.jpg

Historical August storms that went within 60mi of the fix from the 11am NHC position.  I find it interesting that there are storms very close to both the current official track and close to Houston like we've seen on many models.

Map generated at: https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

 

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Not that I have any kind of personal stake in it (I live in Ohio), but is there any reason why the NHC seems so deadset on Louisiana for a landfall? That seems like quite a sharp turn for an August Gulf hurricane. Not to mention Laura has consistently pushed further south and west ever since it developed. Remember when models had Laura over Fort Lauderdale? 

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2 hours ago, Superstorm93 said:

Vortex is certainly still tilted from N-S, but it should relax throughout the day 

Great posts and information from you! Thank you 

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17 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

This is from Colorado state's / CIRA site.  Makes sense given the satellite appearance.

 

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al132020

Here is the description of the product 

AMSU Area-Averaged Wind Shears and Layer Means

These products use the balanced 3-D wind field derived from the AMSU temperature retrievals to estimate the area averaged vertical wind shear and mass weighted deep-layer mean wind in two layers (200 to 850hPa and 500 to 850Hpa). For these calculations the area averaging is calculated in the area contained within 0 to 600km from the center of the cyclone. These are displayed for each AMSU retrieval time available. These may be useful for detecting rapid changes in the synoptic wind field. The reliability of the vertical wind shear estimates is documented in Zehr et al. (2008).

Thanks. That shear plot looks like it ended at 00z last night though. 

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Just now, Hotair said:

A hook visible on IR perhaps showing an Attempt  to Get an eye going ? 

1C675CFB-F9CF-47C1-A429-03FCF82DF03B.png

Yea the last few frames on visible looked like a little recessed area in the clouds moving from the southwest to the center. It does have that look like its trying to form an eye to my uneducated eyes. 

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4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

12z HWRF targets the TX/LA border at ~950 mb.  Over the last four runs, the HWRF has backed off by about 20 mb.

Looks like it has been ingesting the tail Doppler radar from the P3.

Could be helping 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Not that I have any kind of personal stake in it (I live in Ohio), but is there any reason why the NHC seems so deadset on Louisiana for a landfall? That seems like quite a sharp turn for an August Gulf hurricane. Not to mention Laura has consistently pushed further south and west ever since it developed. Remember when models had Laura over Fort Lauderdale? 

Mets correct me if I'm wrong, but I understand it's a handful of things: the speed of the trough in the Great Plains, the GFS showing a TX/LA landing, and the desire not to cause panic that leads to a Rita-level traffic jam (and subsequent deaths) by showing a Category 3+ through the heart of Houston, especially when there's still such uncertainty.

It's a tough forecast in more than one way.

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13 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

12z HWRF targets the TX/LA border at ~950 mb.  Over the last four runs, the HWRF has backed off by about 20 mb.

A few models have backed off a bit on intensity. SHIPS has lowered its RI probabilities some. this plus the larger eye structure suggesting a slow steady ramp up tonight and tomorrow assuming shear relaxes as modeled.

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6 minutes ago, Down The Rabbit Hole said:

Mets correct me if I'm wrong, but I understand it's a handful of things: the speed of the trough in the Great Plains, the GFS showing a TX/LA landing, and the desire not to cause panic that leads to a Rita-level traffic jam (and subsequent deaths) by showing a Category 3+ through the heart of Houston, especially when there's still such uncertainty.

It's a tough forecast in more than one way.

It’s all going to come down to just that, and how that impacts the more northerly turn. We want this thing around where it shows it landfalling, since Western LA coastline is scarcely populated...and it would be too far east for Houston to feel major impacts and west for New Orleans to see major rises. Also it would keep the worst of conditions out of Beaumont and Port Arthur.

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13 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Looks like it has been ingesting the tail Doppler radar from the P3.

Could be helping 

 

 

Levi leaves us hanging.  What are the important implications? 

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50 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Also 979 to 983 mb which is a far cry from 948-951 shown by GFS and Euro. ... I am beginning to have this feeling that Laura may deal with some semblance of dry air intrusion from time to time which could keep her in check??  My gut is telling me with this in mind I think we are seeing a high end Cat 2 at landfall perhaps as high as Cat 3 120 mph winds at landfall.

Everything  has struggled this  year but  laura looks pretty good  right  now. 960-965 seems reasonable at  landfall.

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(2/2) 1) A larger eye typically implies a slower rate of intensification until the eye shrinks a bit 2) A larger vortex is more resistant to being tilted and thus more resilient to shear #Laura's intensification may remain gradual today/tonight before quickening tomorrow.

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Crazy how much dry air has plagued systems this year. NHC has been saying a very moist environment but there's definitely some drier air in the western Gulf. Curious if this will keep Laura in check. Some dry air definitely hindering convection on western side

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