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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The sarcasm wasn't necessary.

We all can see and agree that the vortex is slightly tilted but environmental conditions only improve from here on out. In addition, every piece of reliable guidance has Laura reaching major hurricane status. While I understand the need for a conservative approach, we all know the potential given the current conditions.

I wasn't being sarcastic. That was a legitimate compliment.

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Isn’t that right over where Marco was a cane too? If so pretty impressive given that should be where some lower SSTs are. 
Marco's wake is still 28°C mixed above the cooler thermocline. Plenty warm enough to sustain eyeband convection and core development. Immediate shallow layer temperatures do increase as Laura continues WNW to NW however.

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Since the vortex was tilted to the north on the last pass they could have also been trying to hit the wind minimum to see how tilted it is now.  There is also an AF plane in the storm (FWIW it's having data issues) and they are likely coordinating passes. 

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10AM CDT public Advisory out

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/251457.shtml?

Hurricane warning from San Luis Pass, TX  to Intercoastal City, LA

Storm Surge warning from San Luis Pass to the mouth of the Mississippi

Discussion

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/251505.shtml?

They shifted the track slightly to the West but still East of the consensus models

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Just now, RamblinRed said:

10AM CDT public Advisory out

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/251457.shtml?

Hurricane warning from San Luis Pass, TX  to Intercoastal City, LA

Storm Surge warning from San Luis Pass to the mouth of the Mississippi

It also looks like they have ever so slightly shifted the track west on the graphic.

 

Yes, agree. Shifted just a touch west. Will be interesting to see how model's come in mid-day today and if that influences a bigger move west. NHC seems to have tipped their hand that they'll be watching for that.

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They mention the forecast for increased shear in last 12 hours before landfall. I think the expectation is that will keep Laura in check at least just before landfall.

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29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's still fighting not so ideal conditions with the outflow restriction to the N and NW. It will need to improve there for any RI. My guess is anything really meaningful in terms of RI would be more later tonight and tomorrow..similar to what LEK said. 

Yeah,  once she's done completing her central core, look for spiral bands to feed into that and really  take off... Most of the hurricane models suggest this will take place  this evening into tomorrow morning time frame.

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Even COAMPS, which had been stubbornly muted on intensification, is now predicting a 937mb cat 4 cyclone prior to landfall.

lSWGtBv.gif

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2 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

Even COAMPS, which had been stubbornly muted on intensification, is now predicting a 937mb cat 4 cyclone prior to landfall.

lSWGtBv.gif

Did the track shift back East? I thought morning guidance show it's aiming Houston/Galveston area.

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Just now, vwgrrc said:

Did the track shift back East? I thought morning guidance show it's aiming Houston/Galveston area.

 

4 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

Even COAMPS, which had been stubbornly muted on intensification, is now predicting a 937mb cat 4 cyclone prior to landfall.

lSWGtBv.gif

Gotta love how COAMPS only gets brought up here when it shows a favorable solution ;-)

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12 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

They mention the forecast for increased shear in last 12 hours before landfall. I think the expectation is that will keep Laura in check at least just before landfall.

On the GFS, the trough over the plains is strong enough to breakdown the ridge which allows Laura to take more of a Northerly turn in the Western Gulf and imposes some Southwesterly shear late in period.

MGH4okl.gif

The Euro has a much different trough evolution and thus the ridge to the North of Laura remains much stronger. Hence the further West track and lack of shear. I personally think the GFS is given far too much weight with tropical systems.

KsFgJ0l.gif

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Just now, vwgrrc said:

Did the track shift back East? I thought morning guidance show it's aiming Houston/Galveston area.

That was the ensemble. But yes, the op run is further east from the ensemble mean. There are many tracks west of Houston in there.

BTW...a hate to even bring this up as it wreaks of an intensity cognitive bias that people to like to take out of context, but the ensemble had a couple a of cat 5's and even a sub 900mb cyclone. Again...that is a low probability outcome.

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2 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

 

Gotta love how COAMPS only gets brought up here when it shows a favorable solution ;-)

It should get mentioned more. It's a TVCN and IVCN member.

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3 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

It should get mentioned more. It's a TVCN and IVCN member.

It should certainly get mentioned more frequently than the 3 km NAM ;-)

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12z GFS is a bit faster and about 6mb weaker, but still showing a sub 960mb landfall in about 48 hours near the TX/LA border.

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On the GFS, the trough over the plains is strong enough to breakdown the ridge which allows Laura to take more of a Northerly turn in the Western Gulf and imposes some Southwesterly shear late in period.

MGH4okl.gif&key=81584c3fc4351cdf248383024a3fcc00955b6c8429daef74d21f57f4c90e52fb

The Euro has a much different trough evolution and thus the ridge to the North of Laura remains much stronger. Hence the further West track and lack of shear. I personally think the GFS is given far too much weight with tropical systems.

KsFgJ0l.gif&key=c1e9a6895fb3e1c7121d0212f35b4a28cfebafcb6afbf719cdbf2814fae3a49f

Very minute differences in the handling of the 580 to 590 dm westward extended ridge heights and we're only swinging between 80 miles in landfall points between the Port Arthur and Galveston Bay areas. They're pretty close in track this far out but obviously that can be a huge variance in impact for either area.

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21 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I personally think the GFS is given far too much weight with tropical systems.

There was a chart posted that showed Euro has verified the worst for tropical systems in 2020 at all lead times except 48 hrs (NGX).

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I agree it doesn't look too great at the moment.  As the surface center is moving quickly wnw, and the outflow is pretty restricted to the w/nw, the convection is only able to fire on the east side of the core and play catch-up.

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10 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

There was a chart posted that showed Euro has verified the worst for tropical systems in 2020 at all lead times except 48 hrs (NGX).

You need to look further than just this year. While some recent upgrades to the Euro seem to have made it less reliable, it still outscores the GFS by a lot over the long term.

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3 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

 

 

Still experiencing ~ 15 kt of northerly shear, which seems like the likely culprit to me.

2020al13_amsuaavg_000000000000.gif

 

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There is a roughly 1.5 day window for low shear and strengthening.  Seems like this window is shrinking a bit given that there is currently still 15 kt of shear analyzed (slightly larger than model projections). 


2020al13_diagplot_202008251200.png

 

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1 minute ago, Amped said:

CMC now right up Galveston bay.

Also 979 to 983 mb which is a far cry from 948-951 shown by GFS and Euro. ... I am beginning to have this feeling that Laura may deal with some semblance of dry air intrusion from time to time which could keep her in check??  My gut is telling me with this in mind I think we are seeing a high end Cat 2 at landfall perhaps as high as Cat 3 120 mph winds at landfall.

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