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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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10 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Yeah, but with a 9kt wind you can argue the 990 is valid

 

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

 

 

 

Was that from one of the hot towers?

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38 minutes ago, wkd said:

Any guesses from knowledgeable hobbyists and mets as to when an eye appears?

Looking at representation on both IR and visible satellite and information from Levi Cowan I would say we see an eye appear between 12 pm and 2 pm today eastern time.

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1 minute ago, Hc7 said:

Have they announced any evacuation advisories yet?

As per The Houston Chronicle, Galveston mayor announced mandatory evacuations today.

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1 hour ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Isn’t that right over where Marco was a cane too? If so pretty impressive given that should be where some lower SSTs are. 

Marco briefly became a minimal hurricane, was a small storm and moved through quickly. Effects on SSTs were negligible to nonexistent.

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Who wants to place a bet that Laura never gets it's act together and fails to become a major hurricane? It seems that decoupled centers, shear and SAL are the flavors of the 2020 season thus far.

 

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Who wants to place a bet that Laura never gets it's act together and fails to become a major hurricane? It seems that decoupled centers, shear and SAL are the flavors of the 2020 season thus far.

 

Is this a hunch or do you have something gl back it up?

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Who wants to place a bet that Laura never gets it's act together and fails to become a major hurricane? It seems that decoupled centers, shear and SAL are the flavors of the 2020 season thus far.

 

Perhaps, but one has to remember this wasn't forecasted to become a hurricane until late afternoon and it already is one. On top of that, modeling forecasted shear would impact it for much of the morning and afternoon hours.

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1 hour ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Isn’t that right over where Marco was a cane too? If so pretty impressive given that should be where some lower SSTs are. 

 

9 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Marco briefly became a minimal hurricane, was a small storm and moved through quickly. Effects on SSTs were negligible to nonexistent.

Negligible is accurate...Marco cooled the waters to a freezing cold 84 degrees.  still bath water aka jet fuel basically

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5 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Pulling AWIPS out for you guys...

Staring to see some transverse banding on the northern side of the circulation

bba66382ba70282af50fcaa963707908.gif

yeah, starting to get that look on satellite.

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1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

Is this a hunch or do you have something gl back it up?

No, this is a legitimate observation from the season thus far. It seems that D5+ the Euro / ENS has been failing to pick up on systems and that when guidance suggests some kind of intensification of a TC in the Atlantic basin, it's failed to occur. Systems have been struggling through dry air, and shear that's supposed to subside but never does.

Just now, LovingGulfLows said:

Perhaps, but one has to remember this wasn't forecasted to become a hurricane until late afternoon and it already is one. On top of that, modeling forecasted shear would impact it for much of the morning and afternoon hours.

Okay that clarification helps. 

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5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Who wants to place a bet that Laura never gets it's act together and fails to become a major hurricane? It seems that decoupled centers, shear and SAL are the flavors of the 2020 season thus far.

 

The environment ahead is nothing less than pristine, especially the last 24 hours on approach in the Western Gulf where max potential intensity would easily support a major hurricane. 

My guess is that intensity at landfall will ultimately come down to timing of internal processes such as ERC rather than shear or some other external factor.

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A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 13:07:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23.49N 86.36W
B. Center Fix Location: 298 statute miles (480 km) to the WSW (256°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.27 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 300° at 9kts (From the WNW at 10mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 76kts (87.5mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the S (187°) of center fix at 12:50:58Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 223° at 51kts (From the SW at 58.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 102 nautical miles (117 statute miles) to the S (180°) of center fix at 12:41:51Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 56kts (64.4mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 45 nautical miles (52 statute miles) to the N (359°) of center fix at 13:18:02Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 106° at 69kts (From the ESE at 79.4mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 52 nautical miles (60 statute miles) to the N (359°) of center fix at 13:19:44Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,449m (8,035ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,447m (8,028ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
 

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

The environment ahead is nothing less than pristine, especially the last 24 hours on approach in the Western Gulf where max potential intensity would easily support a major hurricane. 

My guess is that intensity at landfall will ultimately come down to timing of internal processes such as ERC rather than shear or some other external factor.

Okay thank you. I appreciate the insight. 

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Okay thank you. I appreciate the insight. 

The sarcasm wasn't necessary.

We all can see and agree that the vortex is slightly tilted but environmental conditions only improve from here on out. In addition, every piece of reliable guidance has Laura reaching major hurricane status. While I understand the need for a conservative approach, we all know the potential given the current conditions.

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That 76 knot VDM certainly caught me off guard 

184 
URNT12 KWBC 251406
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE  AL132020
A. 25/13:07:20Z
B. 23.49 deg N 086.36 deg W
C. NA
D. 991 mb
E. 300 deg 09 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 76 kt
I. 187 deg 66 nm 12:50:58Z
J. 223 deg 51 kt
K. 180 deg 102 nm 12:41:51Z
L. 56 kt
M. 359 deg 45 nm 13:18:02Z
N. 106 deg 69 kt
O. 359 deg 52 nm 13:19:44Z
P. 12 C / 2449 m
Q. 17 C / 2447 m
R. 13 C / NA
S. 1345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA2 1713A LAURA OB 16
MAX FL WIND 69 KT 359 / 52 NM 13:19:44Z

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I thought shear was pretty much negligible today into tomorrow? Interesting. Looking at satellite though Laura is definitely developing a nice CDO over the low and mid level centers

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Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

I thought shear was pretty much negligible today into tomorrow? Interesting. Looking at satellite though Laura is definitely developing a nice CDO over the low and mid level centers

Vortex is certainly still tilted from N-S, but it should relax throughout the day 

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That 76 knot VDM certainly caught me off guard 
184 URNT12 KWBC 251406VORTEX DATA MESSAGE  AL132020A. 25/13:07:20ZB. 23.49 deg N 086.36 deg WC. NAD. 991 mbE. 300 deg 09 ktF. NAG. NAH. 76 ktI. 187 deg 66 nm 12:50:58ZJ. 223 deg 51 ktK. 180 deg 102 nm 12:41:51ZL. 56 ktM. 359 deg 45 nm 13:18:02ZN. 106 deg 69 ktO. 359 deg 52 nm 13:19:44ZP. 12 C / 2449 mQ. 17 C / 2447 mR. 13 C / NAS. 1345 / NAT. 0.01 / 1 nmU. NOAA2 1713A LAURA OB 16MAX FL WIND 69 KT 359 / 52 NM 13:19:44Z

85 is Cat 2... Wow, she ramping up

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

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7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The sarcasm wasn't necessary.

We all can see and agree that the vortex is slightly tilted but environmental conditions only improve from here on out. In addition, every piece of reliable guidance has Laura reaching major hurricane status. While I understand the need for a conservative approach, we all know the potential given the current conditions.

he wasn't being sarcastic, don't stir trouble when there is none to be had. he is thanking people for their comments. 

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1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said:

85 is Cat 2... Wow, she ramping up

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

That is 85 mph which would still solidly be Cat 1

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2 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Vortex is certainly still tilted from N-S, but it should relax throughout the day 

It certainly doesn't seem to be stopping the system from steadily intensifying. 

 

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Just now, mappy said:

he wasn't being sarcastic, don't stir trouble when there is none to be had. he is thanking people for their comments. 

Thanks for the clarification. My apologies to @Eskimo Joe

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3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I thought shear was pretty much negligible today into tomorrow? Interesting. Looking at satellite though Laura is definitely developing a nice CDO over the low and mid level centers

Watch the growth of spiral feeder bands to the north, northwest of the center. Also note the growth and expansion of the cdo. Outflow still seems impaired to the north and NW but all these signs point to relaxing shear and a steadily intensifying system. If these trends continue which by all counts they should, it sets the stage for the RI that had been well advertised here, in the modeling, and by NHC. This storm is setting itself up nicely to take advantage of near ideal environmental conditions and sea surface temps. My thoughts were yesterday that this storm may take longer to strengthen since it was struggling to develop a core. Well, it pretty much did that coming off Cuba. I see no inhibiting factor as the shear decreases through the day. Watch out, Laura has found her way.

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It's still fighting not so ideal conditions with the outflow restriction to the N and NW. It will need to improve there for any RI. My guess is anything really meaningful in terms of RI would be more later tonight and tomorrow..similar to what LEK said. 

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