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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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1 minute ago, turtlehurricane said:

Satellite makes it pretty obvious that Laura moved way north of track and is already emerging into Gulf of Mexico. Could rapidly deepen over Gulf Stream tonight. This latest land interaction really tightened up the core. 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Cuba-14-48-1-50-1&checked=map-glm_flash&colorbar=undefined

 

 

COD-GOES-East-subregional-Cuba.14.20200825.005617-over=map-glm_flash-bars=.gif

Probably fair to say. LLC taking off.

Now time to stack the mid level. 

We may be experiencing RI atm.

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4 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Satellite makes it pretty obvious that Laura moved way north of track and is already emerging into Gulf of Mexico.

Hey! Did Marco do that?

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Hopefully recon can get in one more pass before they have to return home. If the core is in decent shape, wouldn't be surprised to see an RI episode start with the upcoming diurnal min. Boiling SSTs in excess of 30c and perhaps more importantly, strong upper level divergence and good outflow should encourage robust thunderstorm activity over the next 48 hours. There is mid level shear and dry air, but as was seen with Michael, sometimes storms can compensate for this with robust convection allowing RI to happen anyways. Seeing as the thermos are rather optimal here, I am interested to see if this is something Laura is able to cash in on. 

As far as the loop current, I'm not sure how much that will be worth. Laura's forward speed in the near term may prove to be an asset. 

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

For all those folks talking about warm GOMEX waters:

 

Levi was just talking about this in his latest video. He said it's likely gonna miss that cool pocket of water and it will have little impact. Unless I didn't understand what he said cause I'm no weather expert lol.

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00z SHIPS bumped up intensity a bit, now peaks at 86 kt, also very high RI probability: 

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  24% is   4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  54% is   4.9 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  36% is   5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  27% is   6.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  21% is   8.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  38% is   8.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  34% is   7.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  19% is   3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
 

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With this afternoon and evening guidance coming in, I will be very surprised if the NHC doesn't have Laura a MH over the NW/W GOM.  IF, and it's a big IF, the relatively drier air at the mid levels seen in many models, doesn't materialize and/or is eradicated by Laura, and she slows as progged.....the top end of intensity maybe higher than anyone has tossed out there!

Tomorrow night should be interesting. 

As I stated earlier, and am still currently thinking... I'm heavily leaning on Laura LF'ing near Houston/Galveston +/- 70 mi.

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0Z SHIPS intensity guidance is a bit more aggressive as compared to the 18Z cycle.

                                 *                  GFS version                   *
                                 * ATLANTIC     2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                                 * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                                 *  LAURA       AL132020  08/25/20  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
V (KT) NO LAND    55    58    62    67    73    81    86    83    77    69    60    56    55    61    51    39    30
V (KT) LAND       55    62    65    71    76    85    89    54    36    30    28    27    27    36    27   N/A   N/A
V (KT) LGEM       55    61    65    68    73    82    87    55    35    29    28    27    27    35    36    33    29
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP

SHEAR (KT)        11    13    14    10     4    12    15    23    20    14    19    23    30    47    68    85    84
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0     0     4     7     3     4     2     0     3     6     7     1     2     1    -2    -3    -6
SHEAR DIR        356   353     8    41    35   306   250   264   246   274   259   262   258   259   232   220   221
SST (C)         30.7  30.4  30.4  30.4  30.2  30.2  30.5  31.8  31.1  30.0  30.0  29.7  28.9  25.4  22.7  16.7  14.3
POT. INT. (KT)   174   173   173   173   173   172   172   173   172   170   171   169   156   116    98    78    74
ADJ. POT. INT.   174   173   172   170   164   158   162   173   165   141   146   153   148   109    91    74    71
200 MB T (C)   -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -50.7 -50.4 -50.5 -49.6 -49.1 -49.6 -50.4 -51.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.8 -52.0 -51.2 -49.6
200 MB VXT (C)   0.3   0.5   0.5   0.4   0.5   0.7   1.0   1.7   1.3   1.0   0.9   0.6   0.3   0.2   0.0  -0.3   0.1
TH_E DEV (C)      11    11    11    11    11     9    12     9    14     5    13     5     8     2     1     0     0
700-500 MB RH     57    56    53    55    58    60    60    59    54    59    62    61    57    54    53    53    59
MODEL VTX (KT)    22    21    20    23    24    25    26    23    20    16    12    10    10    18    17    15    19
850 MB ENV VOR    23    16    12    37    42     0   -29   -73   -49    -5    28    60    96   141   116   130   148
200 MB DIV         6    19     4    24    39    35    20    23    35    12    35    16    50    61    49    68    62
700-850 TADV      -6    -2    -7    -3    -7    -2    14     8    13    24    50    28    28    47    59   -15   -57
LAND (KM)         -1    84   250   324   416   266    88  -181  -479  -623  -655  -569   -98   334   319    89   467
LAT (DEG N)     22.3  23.0  23.7  24.5  25.3  26.8  28.9  31.4  34.1  35.9  36.6  36.9  36.9 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x 
LONG(DEG W)     83.3  84.8  86.3  87.7  89.1  91.4  93.0  93.5  92.8  91.4  88.8  84.1  77.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)    16    15    15    15    14    12    12    13    12    10    15    24    29    34    34    31    30
HEAT CONTENT     122   157    54    54    57    49    56     7     6     5     5     5     4     0     0     0     0

 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  24% is   4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  54% is   4.9 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  36% is   5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  27% is   6.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  21% is   8.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  38% is   8.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  34% is   7.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  19% is   3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    24.4%   53.9%   35.9%   26.8%   21.0%   38.2%   34.0%   19.0%
    Logistic:    14.5%   26.8%   20.2%   13.8%    7.7%   19.9%   25.7%    8.4%
    Bayesian:     3.1%   45.6%   30.2%    5.5%    1.7%   13.2%    6.7%    0.3%
   Consensus:    14.0%   42.1%   28.8%   15.3%   10.1%   23.8%   22.1%    9.2%
       DTOPS:    11.0%   59.0%   28.0%   12.0%    3.0%   16.0%   43.0%    0.0%

 

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Just now, LakeEffectKing said:

With this afternoon and evening guidance coming in, I will be very surprised if the NHC doesn't have Laura a MH over the NW/W GOM.  IF, and it's a big IF, the relatively drier air at the mid levels seen in many models, doesn't materialize and/or is eradicated by Laura, and she slows as progged.....the top end of intensity maybe higher than anyone has tossed out there!

Tomorrow night should be interesting. 

As I stated earlier, and am still currently thinking... I'm heavily leaning on Laura LF'ing near Houston/Galveston +/- 70 mi.

I feel like they'll bump up tonight/tomorrow morning. I think, like all of us, they are waiting to see how long organization takes after its journey near Cuba and Hispaniola. The moat look through much of the day today was against RI, but it appears as though that's ended. 

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20 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

One storm at a time, but looking at euro ensembles, there's major mid atlantic coast potential in about 2 weeks

Nana???  :sun:

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another tweet regarding cooler SSTs/loop current.
There is a shallow 26° isotherm down below the 28°C immediate surface layer left in Marco's wake that was probably exacerbated by that 30 meter deep cool thermocline eddie. Laura's forcasted track will take it over the southern part of that wake; but again, it's narrow and Laura is moving fast. If it were a slower system, that might be a bigger issue for a large hurricane. The real problem here is the bathwater at near surface depth sitting undisturbed in the NW GOM. Laura will still be moving at a forward motion that TCHP and 26°C isotherm depth has a negligible influence. The immediate shallow layer is quite sufficient and unfortunately 30-31°C.600ff744d16e681b1f8722052dbd8c64.jpg&key=8bff31e3104d8e352610d8e31e5eddeefd873790448327b96ab89b0373dc9fd7
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Hot towers going up over the center. Also looks to be trying to shed the convective blob to the South.

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Recon about to make another pass through the "eye"  Looks like it'll be offshore so we should get a pretty decent pressure reading

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Hot towers going up over the center. Also looks to be trying to shed the convective blob to the South.

Nice pickup! Both the North and south quadrant of the 925 and 850mb

6461F50E-2943-438D-A3B0-6E4DD5596895.png

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13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Hot towers going up over the center. Also looks to be trying to shed the convective blob to the South.

Bound to happen  The wind-shift line is eventually going to align with the southern edge of the mountains and create a lee vortex near the mid level center.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/00Pinar del Rio/lbjMAXw01a.gif

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With this afternoon and evening guidance coming in, I will be very surprised if the NHC doesn't have Laura a MH over the NW/W GOM.  IF, and it's a big IF, the relatively drier air at the mid levels seen in many models, doesn't materialize and/or is eradicated by Laura, and she slows as progged.....the top end of intensity maybe higher than anyone has tossed out there!
Tomorrow night should be interesting. 
As I stated earlier, and am still currently thinking... I'm heavily leaning on Laura LF'ing near Houston/Galveston +/- 70 mi.
From the man who called Katrina a 175mph hurricane while it was still in Florida (yes, some of us still remember).

You got a call this time?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

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Per latest recon pass, appears we have a strengthening core... Measured a tad above 50kt SFMR in the NE quadrant. Not sure the *core* has had winds that strong its entire life measured by recon.

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Latest advisory nudged Laura up to 110mph at landfall... cusp of category 3 strength.

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6 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Latest advisory nudged Laura up to 110mph at landfall... cusp of category 3 strength.

074 
WTNT43 KNHC 250245
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132020
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

Tropical Storm Laura made landfall on the Pinar del Rio province in
western Cuba around 0000 UTC with maximum winds of about 55 kt.
Around that time, a wind gust of 56 kt was reported in Havana.
Since then the storm has moved across western Cuba and is now
coming off the island and over the extreme southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Radar data from Cuba and satellite images indicate that
the storm has become better organized with deep convection
beginning to wrap around the center with persistent thunderstorms
on the south side.  Data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunters indicate that the pressure has fallen to 996 mb and that
the winds are around 55 kt.

Laura continues to move fairly steadily to the west-northwest with
the latest initial motion estimated to be 290/17 kt.  The track
forecast reasoning is generally unchanged from previous discussions.
Laura should continue to move west-northwestward at about the same
forward speed through Tuesday as it remains in the flow on the
southwest side of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.  By early
Wednesday, Laura will likely slow down and turn northwestward and
then northward as it moves into a break in the ridge, caused by a
weak trough over the south-central U.S.  This motion should cause
the system to make landfall in either southwestern Louisiana or the
Upper Texas coast Wednesday night or early Thursday.  After
landfall, Laura is forecast to continue moving northward before
turning eastward on Friday as it becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies.   Although the global models are in
relatively good agreement, there remains some spread in the ensemble
members, especially in the ECMWF.  Therefore, confidence in the
track forecast is still not high.  The NHC track forecast is
slightly to the left of the previous one, trending toward the
latest consensus aids.

The storm is starting to pull away from the western portion of Cuba,
and it should be over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters for about 2
days.  Since Laura will have a notable amount of time over waters
with high oceanic heat while moving through a low wind shear and
high moisture air mass, significant strengthening seems quite likely
until the storm makes landfall.  The intensity models all show Laura
making landfall as a hurricane, but there are differences on exactly
how strong it will be.  The NHC intensity forecast continues to
stay near the consensus aids, which usually perform best, and
Laura could be near major hurricane strengthen when it reaches the
coast.

Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact details of the
track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 48 h
is around 80 miles and the average intensity error is close to 15
mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will
extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast as a
hurricane late Wednesday and early Thursday. Do not focus
on the details of the official forecast given the typical
uncertainty in NHC's 2 to 3 day track and intensity predictions. In
addition, storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend well
away from Laura's center along the Gulf Coast.

2. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge from San Luis
Pass, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, within the next 48
hours, and a storm surge watch is in effect for these areas
outside of the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk
Reduction System. Residents in these areas should follow any advice
given by local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are possible by late Wednesday from Port
Bolivar, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, with tropical
storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon, and a hurricane
watch is in effect. Additional hurricane watches may be needed
farther south along the Texas coast if the track forecast shifts
toward the south and west tonight and Tuesday.

4. Tropical storm conditions and heavy rainfall are expected across
central and western Cuba for several more hours. These rains could
cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 22.7N  84.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 23.7N  86.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 25.2N  89.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 26.8N  91.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 28.8N  93.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  27/1200Z 31.3N  93.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 72H  28/0000Z 33.8N  93.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 96H  29/0000Z 36.7N  89.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  30/0000Z 36.9N  77.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

215232_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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