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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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7 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Those wind gust maps have been known to be a little too over zealous. Still impressive though 

With Isaias it was a little too high but not too far off. It had 80-85mph gusts here and the max gust in this area was 78mph at FRG which is 5 miles south of me. 

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Trying to organize over land.  That gap in the ridgeline really created a nice band. 

Goes 16, Cuba radar and Key West radar all show the approximate center.

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Quote

... & will likely emerge into the Gulf of Mexico around midnight.

Looks like the center is about to move off land within an hour, at least visually.

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Just now, Superstorm93 said:

Should slow down a bit tomorrow. Fast storm motion could be a detriment if it keeps up. 

Yeah it needs to move slowly in order to maximize its potential over the GOM. Its hauling north right now though

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Just from a local perspective, the Lake Charles "metro" (including the surrounding communities of Sulphur/Westlake/Moss Bluff) is about 200,000, so it's not exactly a small city. I definitely won't argue it's less populous than the Beaumont/Port Arthur, Houston, or Lafayette areas. The Calcasieu ship channel has tons of refineries and other industry on it as well. 

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I love the NHC and I usually don't dispute them, but I'm shocked at the lack of consideration for a Texas landfall. EURO, ensembles, UKMET, multiple models have a Texas landfall. Plus Laura has consistently moved much further south and west throughout the last few days. But we shall see.

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1 minute ago, MoistWx said:

Just from a local perspective, the Lake Charles "metro" (including the surrounding communities of Sulphur/Westlake/Moss Bluff) is about 200,000, so it's not exactly a small city. I definitely won't argue it's less populous than the Beaumont/Port Arthur, Houston, or Lafayette areas. The Calcasieu ship channel has tons of refineries and other industry on it as well. 

Yeah, that's what I was hitting at with that HWRF post a page or two back. The Ship channel helped guide Rita's surge deep into Calcasieu Parish, so a potentially even stronger storm could be even worse.

Of course your office is out there almost completely exposed to the winds in that prairie south of the city.

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Always fun to watch a storm shed a giant blob.   That unsightly blob to the south is going to have to go away at some point.

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3 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I love the NHC and I usually don't dispute them, but I'm shocked at the lack of consideration for a Texas landfall. EURO, ensembles, UKMET, multiple models have a Texas landfall. Plus Laura has consistently moved much further south and west throughout the last few days. But we shall see.

I was surprised too, but this evening, it's hauling itself north, more than expected. Could be why they're honing in on a LA landfall

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Just now, Joseph Torre said:

I was surprised too, but this evening, it's hauling itself north, more than expected. Could be why they're honing in on a LA landfall

I was just thinking the same thing. Laura seems to be traversing Cuba a pretty good distance to the right of forecast. 

 

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1 hour ago, Joseph Torre said:

Similar to Hurricane Rita. Rita was an 18.5 billion $ disaster. We'll see how strong this is at landfall but dry air could hamper it from being a major hurricane

Rita was such a financial hit primarily because of the snafu of people knee jerk evacuating post Katrina.

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5 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I love the NHC and I usually don't dispute them, but I'm shocked at the lack of consideration for a Texas landfall. EURO, ensembles, UKMET, multiple models have a Texas landfall. Plus Laura has consistently moved much further south and west throughout the last few days. But we shall see.

There's still spread with the Euro Ensembles, but all the other guidance is within the cone. I think the cone as it stands works fine. The watches highlight the areas where the greatest landfall risk is as well. Remember, there isn't flexibility to address uncertainty in the cone.

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The storm will drastically decrease its forward speed as we move through the next few days.  If you look back at the models from 3-4 days ago and then now, you will see a significant speed reduction as it moves through the Gulf.  If anything I would be worried about an even slower storm that the current models are showing.  This has CAT 4/5 written all over it.  It's survived the land interaction, if not gotten stronger, and there's minimal sheer ahead at best.  Not to mention 90 degree waters.  This thing will explode like a rocket! 

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Just now, jdj5211 said:

If you look back at the models from 3-4 days ago and then now, you will see a significant speed reduction as it moves through the Gulf.

Five days ago it was going to be over Tampa Bay right now.

Oh how things change, and what changes are coming this week!

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3 minutes ago, Calderon said:

Yeah, that's what I was hitting at with that HWRF post a page or two back. The Ship channel helped guide Rita's surge deep into Calcasieu Parish, so a potentially even stronger storm could be even worse.

Of course your office is out there almost completely exposed to the winds in that prairie south of the city.

Yes, sadly Rita and Ike to an extent are still fairly fresh in a lot of peoples minds. Some of the older generation still have stories of Audrey, but obviously a different time and storm. The WFO out there I believe had surge up fairly close to it in both Rita and Ike. For now, just hoping the HWRF is overdoing things.

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One storm at a time, but looking at euro ensembles, there's major mid atlantic coast potential in about 2 weeks

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