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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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9 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

18z HWRF.... that's a popular landfall location.

hwrf_ref_13L_20.png

That would pretty much be the final nail in the coffin for all of Cameron Parish and  destroy much of Calcasieu Parish with that potentially huge surge going up the channel all the way to downtown Lake Charles, in addition to winds. 

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7 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

18z HWRF.... that's a popular landfall location.

hwrf_ref_13L_20.png

HWRF has been very steady on Location and strength.  Will be interesting to see if this blows the globals out of the park.

Serious though  this model has been like a sniper. Locked and loaded. 

Sw LA and around 930mb.

RI starts in roughly 18 hours.

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4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Unfortunately, the center of Laura is moving over Cuba again just as two recon planes arrive.

Definitely sucks, but hopefully they'll still be in once the center moves back over water. 

Real interesting recon missions start tomorrow morning. 

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8 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Nowhere is ideal for a relatively strong hurricane to landfall, but Western LA is about as good as it’s going to get to avoid more populated areas to east and west. 

The bad news is the landfall point at this range rarely is correct

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5 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Definitely sucks, but hopefully they'll still be in once the center moves back over water. 

Real interesting recon missions start tomorrow morning. 

It would be better for them to be able to sample it post Cuba than pre Cuba. Not sure we  get that lucky, but if we had our choice, recon post Cuba is the easy choice. 

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Just now, MUWX said:

It would be better for them to be able to sample it post Cuba than pre Cuba. Not sure we  get that lucky, but if we had our choice, recon post Cuba is the easy choice. 

 Agreed. There are some pretty tall towers going up right now so hopefully we can capture what kind of shape the core is in. 

Additionally, I *think* we may have data from the tail mounted doppler radar being processed for the 00z HWRF. 

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Just now, MUWX said:

It would be better for them to be able to sample it post Cuba than pre Cuba. Not sure we  get that lucky, but if we had our choice, recon post Cuba is the easy choice. 

At least they have 2 recons going.  That's more data at same time frame.

Tomorrows 6z runs will have a lot of merit. 

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I know it’s the NAM, but i gave to make a weenie post: NAM has sub-900mb pressures for 14 hours straight before landfall with a low of 885mb.

On the other hand, HMON keeps it a weak, disorganized tropical storm through landfall.

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Dropsonde confirming the pressure drop. 

Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 23:23Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number: 13
Storm Name: Laura (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 03

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 23Z on the 24th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 22.4N 82.7W
Location: 54 statute miles (86 km) to the SSW (203°) from Havana, Cuba.
Marsden Square: 081 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb -18m (-59 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
998mb (29.47 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.2°C (81.0°F) 25.8°C (78°F) 135° (from the SE) 35 knots (40 mph)
925mb 669m (2,195 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 22.2°C (72°F) 155° (from the SSE) 37 knots (43 mph)
850mb 1,405m (4,610 ft) 19.2°C (66.6°F) 19.0°C (66°F) 155° (from the SSE) 37 knots (43 mph)
700mb 3,061m (10,043 ft) 11.6°C (52.9°F) 10.9°C (52°F) 155° (from the SSE) 34 knots (39 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 22:41Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 22.44N 82.67W
- Time: 22:41:16Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 22.49N 82.70W
- Time: 22:46:48Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 150° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 37 knots (43 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 155° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 35 knots (40 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 643mb to 997mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 150° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 37 knots (43 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
998mb (Surface) 27.2°C (81.0°F) 25.8°C (78°F)
968mb 24.4°C (75.9°F) 23.9°C (75°F)
850mb 19.2°C (66.6°F) 19.0°C (66°F)
792mb 17.2°C (63.0°F) 15.3°C (60°F)
643mb 7.8°C (46.0°F) 6.2°C (43°F)
 
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
998mb (Surface) 135° (from the SE) 35 knots (40 mph)
989mb 150° (from the SSE) 37 knots (43 mph)
956mb 150° (from the SSE) 39 knots (45 mph)
850mb 155° (from the SSE) 37 knots (43 mph)
730mb 165° (from the SSE) 34 knots (39 mph)
643mb 150° (from the SSE) 28 knots (32 mph)

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10 minutes ago, Joseph Torre said:

Similar to Hurricane Rita. Rita was an 18.5 billion $ disaster. We'll see how strong this is at landfall but dry air could hamper it from being a major hurricane

Interesting you mention dry air.  If you look at the 18z GFS SHIPS output here:

http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2020/al132020/stext/20082418AL1320_ships.txt

The 700-500 RH is below 60% currently and basically stays like this up until landfall.  That's not ideal.  The shear isn't that bad, but notice it jumps to 19 kt just before landfall.   Point is everything has to be almost perfect for an intense hurricane, so right now the shear and moisture suggest at most borderline Cat 2/3 if it can get an inner core and strong enough to overcome these negative factors.

Also, Laura is going to be closing the gap between it and the leftovers of Marco.  You can still see a lobe of 850 vorticity/inverted trough over sern TX that was Macro at 42 hr on the 18z GFS.  Will this affect Laura at all?  Just saying you typically don't want any feature like this in a hurricane's way as it may hinder further development.  Not sure here, as how often do you have a situation like this with TCs close together?  It would be probably moot if Laura was already an established strong hurricane with great anticyclone outflow that would suppress any activity around it from large scale subsidence.

 

850hv.conus.png

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Re: the NAM 3 km. It is not ocean-coupled, which means unrealistic processes physically will take place in the model, leading to unrealistic feedbacks and unrealistic intensities.

In case you didn't get my message there, it's unrealistic.

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9 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Interesting you mention dry air.  If you look at the 18z GFS SHIPS output here:

http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2020/al132020/stext/20082418AL1320_ships.txt

The 700-500 RH is below 60% currently and basically stays like this up until landfall.  That's not ideal.  The shear isn't that bad, but notice it jumps to 19 kt just before landfall.   Point is everything has to be almost perfect for an intense hurricane, so right now the shear and moisture suggest at most borderline Cat 2/3 if it can get an inner core and strong enough to overcome these negative factors.

Also, Laura is going to be closing the gap between it and the leftovers of Marco.  You can still see a lobe of 850 vorticity/inverted trough over sern TX that was Macro at 42 hr on the 18z GFS.  Will this affect Laura at all?  Just saying you typically don't want any feature like this in a hurricane's way as it may hinder further development.  Not sure here, as how often do you have a situation like this with TCs close together?  It would be probably moot if Laura was already an established strong hurricane with great anticyclone outflow that would suppress any activity around it from large scale subsidence.

 

850hv.conus.png

Yeah there's just too much in the way for this to be another Rita, Katrina, or any other generational storm to hit the GOM. Center is over Cuba and quite disorganized right now. Needs perfect conditions for it to reach MH status

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Was trying figure out the NHC 8 pm position as well. Might be some misalignment between the low and mid-level centers but are they really that far off?

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Oh and the 18z Euro is a big problem. RI once it enters the Gulf followed by a Cat 4 landfall north of Galveston.

First global run I've seen go sub 940 mb.

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4 minutes ago, Joseph Torre said:

Yeah there's just too much in the way for this to be another Rita, Katrina, or any other generational storm to hit the GOM. Center is over Cuba and quite disorganized right now. Needs perfect conditions for it to reach MH status

 

1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

18Z Euro has a high end Cat 4 off the Houston Coast 54 hours out 

Lol

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Center on Radar is almost halfway across Cuba. Why does NHC 8 pm still show it offshore? is there really that much misalignment still in the system?

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Just now, MUWX said:

Looks like recon is flying over Cuba. Not sure I’ve seen that before 

Doesn't Cuba usually threaten us if we do that?

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I think there’s some risk Laura slows down significantly near/upon landfall, especially if track ends up further west than current guidance consensus. I’m watching this closely on future model runs...

Pattern will be shifting to --NAO +PNA. These teleconnections with TC track into Texas is usually good for very weak steering flow as TC’s can become trapped under synoptic scale ridging. As currently modeled on most guidance, the trough that influences Laura is already quite tenuous...
 

 

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Just now, TriPol said:

Doesn't Cuba usually threaten us if we do that?

I didn’t think we ever really flew over land but they are certainly flying over Cuba tonight. 

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Seems like we are seeing a windshield wiper effect with the models. Goal posts seem to be Galveston on the left and eastern Cameron Parish on the right. Anyone between those locales should be preparing for a Major Hurricane.

Just now, TriPol said:

Doesn't Cuba usually threaten us if we do that?

Cuba has been more cooperative at least when it comes to HH recon in recent years. 

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