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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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15 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Not expected to become a hurricane until tomorrow night per the 5pm discussion 

Not a huge shocker to me considering the current guidance and overall presentation via Sat. Despite the warm waters being traversed, there's still some dry air intrusion it has to cough up before steadily getting its grips. Despite the forecast being 24 hrs from now being a cane, the overall environment from tomorrow evening through 12hr prior to landfall is about as favorable as you can expect for a TC. SHIPS is sort of bullish on the prospects of RI with ~5-6x the climatological means within the 24-48 hr time frame. The trailing tutt over the northern Caribbean should provide a significant outflow channel on the southern periphery of Laura while the northern side will lack any intrusive shear until just short of landfall. I think the current forecast is conservative, but the correct call as the structural nature of Laura will need to become more favorable in order to take advantage of the antecedent conditions at play. We'll see adjustments up if the structure indeed manifests itself, I have no doubts.  

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11 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Not expected to become a hurricane until tomorrow night per the 5pm discussion 

That's how Hurricane Harvey began three years ago today [well, his final stages], with a whimpy set of official forecasts, than sort of a surprise RI.

My dockmates were following 'the media' and got sandbagged. I had been following the stuff we do here. I tried to get them scared chitless and to get the H outta Dodge. Several lost their boats [and home] at the dock...

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4 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

You can see the drier air in the GIV drop NW of Cuba.  It's not just if any downsloping, western Cuba is fairly flat

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level    Air Temperature    Dew Point
1008mb (Surface)     29.8°C (85.6°F)     About 24°C (75°F)
876mb     20.4°C (68.7°F)     17.2°C (63°F)
850mb     18.2°C (64.8°F)     17.9°C (64°F)
821mb     16.8°C (62.2°F)     16.5°C (62°F)
788mb     16.8°C (62.2°F)     About 10°C (50°F)
763mb     15.8°C (60.4°F)     About 10°C (50°F)
691mb     10.8°C (51.4°F)     6.5°C (44°F)
664mb     9.8°C (49.6°F)     7.8°C (46°F)
656mb     10.2°C (50.4°F)     About 4°C (39°F)
589mb     4.8°C (40.6°F)     About -3°C (27°F)
560mb     1.6°C (34.9°F)     About -3°C (27°F)
552mb     1.2°C (34.2°F)     About -7°C (19°F)
531mb    -1.7°C (28.9°F)     About -7°C (19°F)

498mb    -4.3°C (24.3°F)     About -19°C (-2°F)
487mb    -5.3°C (22.5°F)     About -12°C (10°F)
478mb    -5.9°C (21.4°F)     About -15°C (5°F)
456mb    -8.3°C (17.1°F)    -11.9°C (11°F)
451mb    -8.7°C (16.3°F)     About -19°C (-2°F)
443mb    -9.9°C (14.2°F)     About -18°C (0°F)
424mb    -11.1°C (12.0°F)     About -30°C (-22°F)
416mb    -12.3°C (9.9°F)     About -22°C (-8°F)
409mb    -13.1°C (8.4°F)     About -31°C (-24°F)
398mb    -13.9°C (7.0°F)     About -37°C (-35°F)
393mb    -14.7°C (5.5°F)     About -25°C (-13°F)
386mb    -15.3°C (4.5°F)     About -40°C (-40°F)
375mb    -15.5°C (4.1°F)     About -38°C (-36°F)
348mb    -20.3°C (-4.5°F)     About -48°C (-54°F)
321mb    -25.3°C (-13.5°F)    -29.3°C (-21°F)
313mb    -26.3°C (-15.3°F)     About -36°C (-33°F)
302mb    -28.3°C (-18.9°F)     About -34°C (-29°F)
293mb    -29.5°C (-21.1°F)     About -46°C (-51°F)
275mb    -33.7°C (-28.7°F)     About -47°C (-53°F)
268mb    -34.3°C (-29.7°F)     About -40°C (-40°F)
260mb    -35.9°C (-32.6°F)     About -56°C (-69°F)
248mb    -38.9°C (-38.0°F)     About -53°C (-63°F)
210mb    -47.5°C (-53.5°F)     About -68°C (-90°F)
175mb    -56.1°C (-69.0°F)     Reading usually unavailable when air temp. is below -40°C
169mb    -58.9°C (-74.0°F)     Reading usually unavailable when air temp. is below -40°C
 

Western Cuba is fairly flat but there are a few peaks 1000-2000 feet around Artemisa and just southwest.  This is generally too where Laura is heading.

 

https://en-us.topographic-map.com/maps/tlk4/Cuba/

 

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Key messages from 5 pm discussion

Key Messages:

1. Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast as a 
hurricane late Wednesday and early Thursday. Do not focus 
on the details of the official forecast given the typical 
uncertainty in NHC's 2 to 3 day track and intensity predictions. In 
addition, storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend well 
away from Laura's center along the Gulf Coast. 

2. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge from San Luis 
Pass, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, within the next 48 
hours, and a storm surge watch has been issued for these areas 
outside of the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk 
Reduction System. Residents in these areas should follow any advice 
given by local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are possible by late Wednesday from Port 
Bolivar, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, with tropical 
storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon, and a hurricane 
watch has been issued. Additional hurricane watches may be needed 
farther south along the Texas coast if the track forecast shifts 
toward the south and west tonight and Tuesday. 

4. Tropical storm conditions and heavy rainfall are expected across 
central and western Cuba through tonight. These rains could cause 
mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 21.7N  82.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 22.7N  84.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 24.2N  87.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 25.7N  90.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 27.5N  92.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  27/0600Z 29.8N  93.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 32.5N  93.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 96H  28/1800Z 36.1N  90.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  29/1800Z 36.5N  80.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 

 

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1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said:

That obviously is not correct latest fix at 5 pm was 1001 mb  that's pretty significant difference then again it is an off run of the 18z gfs too.

It's correct imo. Gfs has hh data 

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Even though Laura is moving west and is past my longitude, it is getting every so slightly closer and now just 320 miles away. So it seems like the closest approach to SE FL is about now.

Notably, some rainbands did make it all this way. Gusty winds to 40 mph and torrential downpours in a couple sets of bands this afternoon. One of them actually trained over me and maybe we got an inch of rain. 

Miami holds the peak gust in the region, 54 mph. Not even the keys gusted that high, although the winds in the keys are more sustained right now, with 30 mph sustained in Key West, as opposed to 20-25 mph sustained along the SE FL coast. 

Overall, an interesting close approach. From the little of Laura that I've seen here, it seems to be vigorous. Even the outermost rainbands pack a punch. 

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1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said:

I'm sorry, but do you even know what you're talking about? 

They haven't completed a center fix in several hours. 

I thought hh incorporate data into the latest gfs run?

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4 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

I'm sorry, but do you even know what you're talking about? 

They haven't completed a center fix in several hours. 

They should be there next 40-50 min. Departed from (LAL) Lakeland Airport. I’m thinking the center should be able to dodge the more mountainous terrain. Maybe to the SW of Havana? 

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Just now, wizard021 said:

I thought hh incorporate data into the latest gfs run?

Dropsonde data is ingested into the model but there has not been a pass through the center in quite some time. 

The GFS appears to be too excited with intensity considering it has the storm in the 980's by tomorrow morning. 

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Next recon flight is ~150-170 miles out from the center... So should get some data relatively soon.

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Just now, jojo762 said:

Next recon flight is ~150-170 miles out from the center... So should get some data relatively soon.

:ph34r: ninj’d :gun_bandana:

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GFS still keen on LF near LCH with a ~950mb cane. This continues the trend of 4 runs into a similar vicinity. The trend I'm noticing is the stronger guidance is more east with the track due weakening the western extension of the ridge in place. It plays a bully role and moves the storm more poleward. This can be a GFS bias as it's done this in the past with other strong cyclones (Irma when it was in the western Atlantic), so there could be a slight correction westward more towards the TX/LA coastal plain. This would be within the UKMET outcome, which has been the center guidance between GFS and Euro today. Interested to see the GEFS. 

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1 hour ago, SENC said:

Fredrick? 

Totally different after Cuba. I guess storms that are just south of Cuba that move wnw all the way to Gulf LF are uncommon.

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14 minutes ago, MUWX said:

There is a reason the banter thread was created.  

Yep, this and people without much meteorological knowledge post with such sureness like their Dr Greg Forbes or something.There’s nothing wrong with asking questions but if you don’t know what your talking about don’t post it like your an expert, or take it to the banter thread. It clutters up the main thread which is usually very informative and a good source of information and all the bad post do is make it confusing and harder to read through especially at the end of a storm when there’s 100 plus pages and someone wants to go back through to find something and have to sift through misinformed post. 

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

18z HWRF.... that's a popular landfall location.

hwrf_ref_13L_20.png

Similar to Hurricane Rita. Rita was an 18.5 billion $ disaster. We'll see how strong this is at landfall but dry air could hamper it from being a major hurricane

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1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

18z HWRF.... that's a popular landfall location.

hwrf_ref_13L_20.png

European ensembles notwithstanding, there seems to be a current consensus on what the final approach looks like.

We'll see how fragile it is once we get to a post-Cuba Laura tomorrow. 

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Nowhere is ideal for a relatively strong hurricane to landfall, but Western LA is about as good as it’s going to get to avoid more populated areas to east and west. 

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