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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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From the 12Z FV3-GEFS...the pressure weighted mean track is for a landfall near Galveston. The member-wise mean track appears to be closer to the TX/LA border.

ljL030w.png

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54 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The latest recon fix is a bit odd.  It's trying to organize, increasing the moisture and convection near the center, but the pressure jumps 4 mb?  The position is west of the last fix, though, remaining well out over water.

recon_AF301-1013A-LAURA.png

It's still diving SW on radar that's going to screw up the forecast.

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17 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

 

The thing that has been sloppy and loose its entire existence isn’t going to be a a cat 5 unless it makes it <910. 931 ain’t gonna cut it. 

Its also the gom. Need lower pressures to generate wind speeds. 

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19 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

This doesn't really make sense.  There have been several cat5 storms with pressure in the vicinity of 930 hPa.  I don't get how "sloppy and loose" has anything to do with the pressure needed to achieve cat 5 winds.  Obviously if it approaches cat 5, it won't be "sloppy and loose" anymore.

Not saying that I think cat5 is likely.  It is *possible,* but not the most probable outcome.

Not reliably in the gom im pretty sure. Easier to do north of the Antilles where the environmental pressures are much higher.  

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26 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Its also the gom. Need lower pressures to generate wind speeds. 

Watch out, you’re going to get lectured about how there have been cat 5’s near 930 before

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Ukmet makes landfall just east of Port Arthur. 

TROPICAL STORM LAURA      ANALYSED POSITION : 21.0N  79.7W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 24.08.2020    0  21.0N  79.7W     1000            41
    0000UTC 25.08.2020   12  22.5N  83.2W      995            47
    1200UTC 25.08.2020   24  23.8N  86.3W      992            48
    0000UTC 26.08.2020   36  25.1N  89.3W      984            54
    1200UTC 26.08.2020   48  26.6N  91.8W      972            67
    0000UTC 27.08.2020   60  28.5N  93.4W      954            74
    1200UTC 27.08.2020   72  31.2N  93.5W      961            43
    0000UTC 28.08.2020   84  34.2N  92.4W
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1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The latest recon fix is a bit odd.  It's trying to organize, increasing the moisture and convection near the center, but the pressure jumps 4 mb?  The position is west of the last fix, though, remaining well out over water.

recon_AF301-1013A-LAURA.png

One thing this flight has continued to confirm is that there is a large moat of light winds near the center of the system. Pressure will begin to fall with the increased convection, I think these rises were due to the lack of persist convection overnight from the storm. The system has no core. For significant strengthening we need to see a tightening of the inner gradient of the wind field. The best way to do that is to develop heavy convection right over the center, something Laura is trying to do. There is a large area of lower pressures, not a tight pressure gradient. Time is limited before the storm crosses back over Cuba for any reintensification, but if we begin to notice this wind field contract more towards the center with the blow up of convection it could spell a much quicker rate of intensification when the system makes it to the GOM. 

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New ASCAT pass. Perhaps other than the rapidly formed meso vortex feature that moved in over PR, this is as structurally sound as Laura has been in its existence. Still got a long way to go.

d9eaa07085051fa07af9d2ae7fb4e2ad.jpg&key=f6a8975cd00f6443012055ca8b0ba1dbb6f6625a20b40c7164bccc616c40fb96

 

 

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18 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Watch out, you’re going to get lectured about how there have been cat 5’s near 930 before

I suppose I made the wrong point.  In the past, it seems like you need <920 hPa to get cat 5 winds in the gulf (though the sample size is pretty small).  But my point was the level of disorganization up to this point in the storm's life has absolutely no bearing on what pressure is needed to achieve cat 5 winds.

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9 minutes ago, friedmators said:

999.8 extrap

Dropsonde says 1001 or 1002 mb.  We'll probably see a drop below 1000 mb later this afternoon, once core convection has persisted for a while.

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Winds sustained at 30 and gusting to 40 here on the SE FL coast. Powerful pressure gradient between Laura and the steering ridge. Looks like we will get some bands after all due to the convergence zone between Marco and Laura. Bands in the northern semicircle of Laura are racing to the north towards Marco, and going as far north as Fort Myers and even Tampa. 

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

12z HWRF is identical to the 06z... sw LA landfall.

How about strength wise? Similar to 6z? 

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6 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

1900 storm .

Its the closest but from yesterday morning the track diverges as Laura is further south missing much of the landmass of Cuba and then coming to the Gulf coast at a different orientation. I don't know of a storm to be just south of Cuba and then making landfall in TX or the LA boarder region.

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12z UK with a solid jump northeast, now hits the TX/LA border.  That's a big deal considering the UK is often on the south edge of the model spread.  Last night's 00z run had landfall well sw of Galveston.

sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

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1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

12z HWRF is identical to the 06z... sw LA landfall.

Seems like the current consensus.   Hopefully the southwest jog won't screw things up too badly.  Lake Charles is not very populated and would minimize the impact of a CAT4/5 landfall. 

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3 minutes ago, Amped said:

Seems like the current consensus.   Hopefully the southwest jog won't screw things up too badly.  Lake Charles is not very populated and would minimize the impact of a CAT4/5 landfall. 

I think expecting a Cat 4/5 landfall is a bit overdoing it. Strong 2/3 is very likely. Anything higher would depend on time needed after W. Cuba to fully develop core and actual environment as landfall approaches 

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

12z UK with a solid jump northeast, now hits the TX/LA border.  That's a big deal considering the UK is often on the south edge of the model spread.  Last night's 00z run had landfall sw of Galveston.

sfcwind_mslp.conus.png

Beat me to it lol.  Slightly stronger trough cutoff over NC TX and slightly weaker steering ridge, similar to the GFS.  Subtle changes in either of those 2 pieces could mean 200 miles.

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