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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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I'm a bit surprised the NHC remained as far east in the 11am track. They don't seem to be buying the westward shift of the EURO. They think that ridging will break down. They do mention the likelihood of rapid strengthening in the Gulf however, and have Laura coming ashore as a dangerous 90 kt+ hurricane.

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I believe, with the center remaing offshore of Cuba until it crosses the western tip, the likelihood of Laura becoming a solid major in the GOM, has incresed significantly.....Houston to Lake Charles is a good first guess LF...

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GFS paints a pretty scary scenario for the Gulf Tuesday/Wednesday. Notice the lack of shear aloft at 250h and the anticyclonic motion over head. This combined with record breaking TCHP/SST's will result in rapid rapid strengthening. The only hope the Gulf Coast has at this point is it makes landfall in the remote swamps of far eastern TX/western LA a la Rita. It's bombs away after today.

 

gfs_uv250_us_10.png

 

 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

GFS paints a pretty scary scenario for the Gulf Tuesday/Wednesday. Notice the lack of shear aloft at 250h and the anticyclonic motion over head. This combined with record breaking TCHP/SST's will result in rapid rapid strengthening. The only hope the Gulf Coast has at this point is it makes landfall in the remote swamps of far eastern TX/western LA a la Rita. It's bombs away after today.

 

gfs_uv250_us_10.png

 

 

 

 

My brother's home was leveled to the foundation in Rita, and he lived about 4-5 miles west of Galveston. Let's not hope it's Rita. Or Ike. 

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27 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I'm a bit surprised the NHC remained as far east in the 11am track. They don't seem to be buying the westward shift of the EURO. They think that ridging will break down. They do mention the likelihood of rapid strengthening in the Gulf however, and have Laura coming ashore as a dangerous 90 kt+ hurricane.

A lot of us in the Houston area are concerned we are going to lose a critical prep day because of the track holding to the east at 11. This could be a disaster in the making if the track suddenly shifts back to the west, and based on the UKMET and Euro Ensembles, that seems like a good possibility.

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3 minutes ago, jasons said:

A lot of us in the Houston area are concerned we are going to lose a critical prep day because of the track holding to the east at 11. This could be a disaster in the making if the track suddenly shifts back to the west, and based on the UKMET and Euro Ensembles, that seems like a good possibility.

You're in the cone. You should be prepping now. 

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The latest recon fix is a bit odd.  It's trying to organize, increasing the moisture and convection near the center, but the pressure jumps 4 mb?  The position is west of the last fix, though, remaining well out over water.

recon_AF301-1013A-LAURA.png

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah don’t wait for a cone shift, make your preparations now just in case there is an actual shift.

If i was in galveston id evacuate early . Rita was a big issue with that . Too much traffic killed a lot of people .

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Based on modeled 72 hour deep and shallow steering flow and the axis position of the upper anticyclone, a gradual NW turn would put Laura in an explosive divergent environment right up through landfall. We've seen this modeled for a number of days, but we also didn't forsee Laura being positioned in the W to NW GOM. This increases the hurricane's MPI substantially. Of course anything is possible. Perhaps there might be some slow structural development. But that is looking less and less likely. I'm swinging more and more expecting a major hurricane. I think the NHC is going to swing that way as well. Just too much potential. About the only negative environmental aspect I can see might be if Laura nears the Texas coastline with a west shift in track and some drier continental subsidence airmass getting into the western circulation. However that is not a guarantee at all if the mid-level flow remains southeasterly.

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9 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

If i was in galveston id evacuate early . Rita was a big issue with that . Too much traffic killed a lot of people .

You're all preaching to the choir. The general public isn't going to do much unless/until the middle of the cone is painted over the Houston area. For now, most people are in wait-and-see mode which is why I am so concerned about the trends. It's gonna be a mad last-minute scramble in the middle of a pandemic.

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Just now, Windspeed said:

Based on modeled 72 hour deep and shallow steering flow and the axis position of the upper anticyclone, a gradual NW turn would put Laura in an explosive divergent environment right up through landfall. We've seen this modeled for a number of days, but we also didn't forsee Laura being positioned in the W to NW GOM. This increases the hurricane's MPI substantially. Of course anything is possible. Perhaps there might be some slow structural development. But that is looking less and less likely. I'm swinging more and more expecting a major hurricane. I think the NHC is going to swing that way as well. Just too much potential. About the only negative environmental aspect I can see if Laura nears the Texas coastline with a west shift in track is perhaps some drier continental subsidence airmass getting into the western circulation. However that is not a guarantee at all if the mid-level flow remains southeasterly.

I know I am way ahead of the game here with this and have limited knowledge pertaining to it, especially considering the track is so up in the air, but if the cane is strengthening all the way up to landfall, does that exacerbate the situation  wrt storm surge and wind/waves etc.. would it be significantly more detrimental in the grand scheme of things if it was a steady state category 3 let’s say? Does angle play a pivotal roll? This intrigues me in these senses. 

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12z GFS at 957mb with about 24 hours left over water 

 

edit: pretty steady through landfall at around 960mb. Slightly weaker than 6z I believe 

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11 minutes ago, jrips27 said:

12z GFS at 957mb with about 24 hours left over water 

 

edit: pretty steady through landfall at around 960mb. Slightly weaker than 6z I believe 

6zHwrf has it at 931mb. Sw La. 125-140 kt.

Definitely the possibility of a solid cat4, cat5

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1 minute ago, FLweather said:

6zHwrf has it at 931mb. Sw La. 125-140 kt.

Definitely the possibility of a solid cat4, cat5

Yea pretty crazy man. Goes from a cat 3 to cat 5 in 12 hours.

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7 minutes ago, FLweather said:

6zHwrf has it at 931mb. Sw La. 125-140 kt.

Definitely the possibility of a solid cat4, cat5

 

4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Yea pretty crazy man. Goes from a cat 3 to cat 5 in 12 hours.

The thing that has been sloppy and loose its entire existence isn’t going to be a a cat 5 unless it makes it <910. 931 ain’t gonna cut it. 

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1 minute ago, the ghost of leroy said:

 

The thing that has been sloppy and loose its entire existence isn’t going to be a a cat 5 unless it makes it <910. 931 ain’t gonna cut it. 

This doesn't really make sense.  There have been several cat5 storms with pressure in the vicinity of 930 hPa.  I don't get how "sloppy and loose" has anything to do with the pressure needed to achieve cat 5 winds.  Obviously if it approaches cat 5, it won't be "sloppy and loose" anymore.

Not saying that I think cat5 is likely.  It is *possible,* but not the most probable outcome.

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2 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

 

The thing that has been sloppy and loose its entire existence isn’t going to be a a cat 5 unless it makes it <910. 931 ain’t gonna cut it. 

 

Just now, jpeters3 said:

This doesn't really make sense.  There have been several cat5 storms with pressure in the vicinity of 930 hPa.  I don't get how "sloppy and loose" has anything to do with the pressure needed to achieve cat 5 winds.  Obviously if it approaches cat 5, it won't be "sloppy and loose" anymore.

I’m not advocating or saying I am hoping for a cat 5 here or it will ever achieve that type of strength, just stating what the 6z HWRF showed and how volatile this storm can potentially be. The dynamics are insane and the SST’s are bathtub to jacuzzi temps. I wouldn’t let the ragged presentation it shows now fool anyone and I know you both post here regularly, summer and winter, so I’m not preaching anything new. Keep up the good posts! 

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3 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

 

The thing that has been sloppy and loose its entire existence isn’t going to be a a cat 5 unless it makes it <910. 931 ain’t gonna cut it. 

The only way that it survived was because it was "sloppy" 

If this was small and compact when it hit the islands we wouldn't be talking about it right now. I highly, highly doubt this reaches that intensity, but it doesn't need to cause extreme impacts along the coast. 

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