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Major Hurricane Laura

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Laura will take some time today to reorganize, given the continued proximity to the Cuban landmass and above mentioned center misalignment due to shear and land interaction. More convection is showing on IR although Cayman radar isn't that impressive atm. Given that Laura still has to cross western Cuba tonight, situation should remain close to steady state until it reaches the Gulf.

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It is maintenance tstms and upper air high. This never had an inner core.  All systems go with this in the gulf . I agree on the healthy outflow in all quadrants. 

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I'm not a meteorolgist - just come here for all the good talk, but if the 6z ECMWF ends up being the track that would seem to be the absolute worst outcome for human effects. 

Coming in just south of Galveston Bay I would assume would push water up the bay and then the center of the storm goes almost right over Houston. That's just sounds like a disaster and they are already struggling so bad there with COVID (off their peaks from last month but still averaging over 1,300 cases and 34 deaths per day).

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=13L&pkg=ref&runtime=2020082406&fh=60

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I am trying to locate the center I am thinking there could be two the more dominate one looks further north east of the Isle of Youth heading westbound.  The other looks a bit further SSE from that center.    I wonder if the two centers co locate later on today and that's when the real strengthening starts before getting temporarily disrupted crossing the western tip of Cuba.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=vis

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Visible since dawn. Looks like convection is trying to wrap the backside of the low-level surface vortex. Perhaps the tilted mid-level vort will be able to better align and a sign that northerly upper flow is starting to relax. A trend that will persist into the afternoon or is this merely temporary? We shall see..
29a7a8b6d0c0912c0bc1445c478c2d10.gif

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16 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

f75c3621e46930d8131f45d9549c36c9.gif

This makes much more sense given the NHC’s forecast track of Marco. The longer Marco remains a tropical cyclone the further west Laura will track. The 6z GFS had Marco completely dissipate over LA in the next 24 hrs...the NHC has Marco as a TD on Wednesday,  near Houston...

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24 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

f75c3621e46930d8131f45d9549c36c9.gif

A Houston-to-DFW special is both A. on the table and B. an absolute nightmare. Lets hope this doesn't verify

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Just now, bdgwx said:

0Z UKMET ensemble mean track is for a landfall very near Galveston, TX.

gJ7VvdH.png

Man that is a hard right! Any chance she comes out off the East Coast and does a circle looping back around at the U.S.?

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2 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Surge threat appears to be pretty substantial given the "broad" nature of the system

a23087f4152de988f3fc03046e825294.gif

Oof it looks like Galveston Bay is literally sucking in the surge

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3 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Surge threat appears to be pretty substantial given the "broad" nature of the system

a23087f4152de988f3fc03046e825294.gif

To be clear, this is significant wave heights and not surge. This is in part has to do with the wind energy produced by Marco over the northern Gulf of Mexico the past several days...

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And here is the 6Z FV3-GEFS ensemble tracks. I believe their are 30 members in the new GEFS. It looks like all but maybe 4 are hurricanes at landfall with a mean track near the TX/LA border.

ovMTPkJ.png

 

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8 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Man that is a hard right! Any chance she comes out off the East Coast and does a circle looping back around at the U.S.?

No Laura will get sucked out to see very fast leaving the middle Atlantic Coast of the north side of the Western Atlantic Ridge.  Laura will say hello to the westerlies.  However just after this time the Euro says watch Nana approaching the Bahamas and the East Coast first week of September. 

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

To be clear, this is significant wave heights and not surge. This is in part has to do with the wind energy produced by Marco over the northern Gulf of Mexico the past several days...

Oh I know.

 

Just trying to find the best product to illustrate the surge threat and I certainly didn't want to post the max wave height product with its ludicrous 70 foot wave output 

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Just woke up and the center is making its closest approach, I am just under 350 miles away from it. It's sunny, beautiful, and breezy though! That ridge really pushed in, and the northern side of the system is nothing but breezes and some clouds racing in the sun. Winds sustained 25 mph, probably won't even get any rainbands here, and the keys may just get a little rainband action.

This is much more fortunate than the same day 28 years ago. It's the anniversary of Hurricane Andrew. 

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The single, dominant curved band on visible is a good precursor sign to increased organization. That should allow convection to wrap and further develop over the center.

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4 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

The single, dominant curved band on visible is a good precursor sign to increased organization. That should allow convection to wrap and further develop over the center.

Agreed. Outflow still looks respectable on the southern side of the circulation this morning, so it's really going to come down to home much core convection can develop. 

cae69179a7221f3d21c0128a23784bef.png

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