• Member Statistics

    16,048
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Catacol
    Newest Member
    Catacol
    Joined
WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

Recommended Posts

That northerly shear seems to be doing a lot of damage considering it’s not all that strong. At least there’s a little convection right around the LLC but most the northern semicircle of the storm is void of any convection. 

C5DFBB2E-B461-47A7-B1D5-5136638C29D1.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know the NHC has mentioned it in their discussion(s), but I am a little bit surprised they have not upped the intensities of Laura, post T+24 hrs.....

Aside from a few nuance uncertainties with in some of the models, this, to me, is a storm that I'd be a bit more bullish on while in the GOM....and if some of those potential negative impacts to the storm come to fruition, then intensities could be backed down a bit.....Her recent history of resiliency, whether it be a valid, repeatable quality or not going forward, should be respected.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote
Earlier ASCAT-B/-C scatterometer passes around 0210Z-0250Z revealed a small 
circulation just offshore southeastern Cuba. However, this feature 
is considered to be a leeside vortex, possibly having developed in 
response to the long-fetch southerly low-level flow passing over 
Jamaica, and not the primary low-level center associated with Laura.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, yoda said:

091210_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png.33b1d7f67fdd10c454cc782a118dd234.png

I would assume that the chances of power loss will increase along the path of Laura well inland, especially if she becomes a M Hurricane before landfall. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think that poster meant after landfall.  NHC has 45 mph at the 8 pm Thu data point, so we can infer they have it as a TS until clearing the Memphis area. And that is with an explicit cat 2 forecast at landfall, which would suggest the inland  decay to TD could take longer if it were to make landfall at a stronger intensity than the NHC forecast.
Generally, if a storm of Cat 2/3 can clear the distance from the coast to the TN line within 24 hours, it will easily be a tropical storm here.

Katrina did this last. Opal was the most intense at this latitude in recent memory for a Gulf storm. Obviously, for an Atlantic storm, Hugo is the standard for inland wind penetration since the dawn of televised weather.

Theoretically, a Cat 5 landfall moving due north at 25mph+ will make it to TN as a hurricane. Obviously, I have no need to see that since it means someone got a Cat 5.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

That northerly shear seems to be doing a lot of damage considering it’s not all that strong. At least there’s a little convection right around the LLC but most the northern semicircle of the storm is void of any convection. 

C5DFBB2E-B461-47A7-B1D5-5136638C29D1.jpeg

Isnt this more so due to the mountains on Cuba? The north side looks like it is being cut off by a wall, quite literally. That cant just be because of some mild shear, right?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Hc7 said:

Isnt this more so due to the mountains on Cuba? The north side looks like it is being cut off by a wall, quite literally. That cant just be because of some mild shear, right?

Wouldn’t the flow over most of Cuba be from the S or E except of the W side of the storm where flow is from north and offshore? I think this would mean the flow would be into the mountains from the Caribbean causing lift. I could be way off just my interpretation of it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, mempho said:

Generally, if a storm of Cat 2/3 can clear the distance from the coast to the TN line within 24 hours, it will easily be a tropical storm here.

Katrina did this last. Opal was the most intense at this latitude in recent memory for a Gulf storm. Obviously, for an Atlantic storm, Hugo is the standard for inland wind penetration since the dawn of televised weather.

Theoretically, a Cat 5 landfall moving due north at 25mph+ will make it to TN as a hurricane. Obviously, I have no need to see that since it means someone got a Cat 5.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

Seems like I recall seeing Inland Tropical Storm advisories in the Middle TN area associated with Katrina but have been unable to find anything to back that up online. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, mempho said:

Generally, if a storm of Cat 2/3 can clear the distance from the coast to the TN line within 24 hours, it will easily be a tropical storm here.

Katrina did this last. Opal was the most intense at this latitude in recent memory for a Gulf storm. Obviously, for an Atlantic storm, Hugo is the standard for inland wind penetration since the dawn of televised weather.

Theoretically, a Cat 5 landfall moving due north at 25mph+ will make it to TN as a hurricane. Obviously, I have no need to see that since it means someone got a Cat 5.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

FWIW, we have friends in Albany, GA...when Michael hit, they only had 80-90mph gusts where they are...even with it hitting at 155, the winds had already died down that much by the time it reached South Georgia.
 

and you’re right about Hugo. What he did to Columbia and Charlotte may never be repeated 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Seems like I recall seeing Inland Tropical Storm advisories in the Middle TN area associated with Katrina but have been unable to find anything to back that up online. 
Yes, correct. Katrina was the last time MEG issued tropical storm warnings (or tropical storm wind warnings or whatever they were called at the time).

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, turtlehurricane said:

Yup, was just about to say it's definitely not reformed, and it won't. The wind shift is an orographic effect, with northerly winds surging around the western tip of the mountains, and southerly winds in the area shielded by the mountains. 

Doesn't really make a difference anyways. If it's gonna traverse the whole Gulf of Mexico it'll explode either way. 

The one notable thing though is the core finally got desiccated by the mountains. Will likely improve quickly as it moves further west and inflow stops being blocked by the mountains. Vortex is still intact which is all that really matters. 

I’ve seen the mountains on the south coast of Cuba on a cruise and I’ve been to Montigo Bay on the northwest part of Jamaica there are some pretty good tops there all the way up the coast.  Laura being in between Cuba and Jamaica would be problematic for in and out flow through that small passage there and also downslope dry air would be a problem.  However with all that said Laura is heading west and if she stays over water today south of Cuba and pulling away from Jamaica look out.  Waters 88-91 south of Cuba is rocket fuel.  I’d say once Laura gets over towards Grand Cayman area all systems go so long as the center is mainly over water. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Laura has a lot of work to do. Some drier air has wrapped around into it and the deep convection is displaced well to the south. 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

06 [email protected] 69 hours, it lines up pretty well with the NHC's track. Although its probably overestimating the pressure and intensity slightly (id hope), Id say that likely a fairly realistic track at this point. Not sure about 931mb though, but I could definitely see her coming in around 940-945mb. I think its safe to say anyone near the coast in that general area should get out ASAP though, if I lived around there this would surely be enough to convince me to leave earlier rather than later, let alone stay to see if the most intense parts of the storm do or dont hit me.

Edit:  maybe HWRF isnt overestimating the intensity, it initializes in the high 990s and places the strongest winds north of Cuba and judging off the most recent recon data...thats fairly accurate. I suppose it isnt that crazy to expect it to RI that quickly with the waters its going to be going over after clearing Cuba.

 

though.qMTkoOa.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Hc7 said:

Isnt this more so due to the mountains on Cuba? The north side looks like it is being cut off by a wall, quite literally. That cant just be because of some mild shear, right?

Laura has been disrupted being between the two ranges of mountains on Jamaica and Cuba shooting between the two.  Once Laura gets over nearing Grand Cayman the disruption to the inflow and outflow of Laura and downslope dry air should also diminish and allow her to strengthen over 88-92f degree waters. 

E7F6CAD7-CCF9-4F4A-BC05-B46B3BDF72B1.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Definitely looking more ragged this morning due to the reasons stated above but I think it’s worth keeping two things in mind:

1) Most guidance doesn’t have the center really begin to develop a core until ~18 hours from now when this has fully cleared Cuba and entered the southeastern Gulf

2) There’s already some bursts of convection near the center that’s offshore now. Let’s see what becomes of that between now and the next Cuban landfall. This is an extremely high OHC environment and the shear isn’t too bad looking at analysis.

64033005.gif?0.9740040875365092

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, weathertree4u said:

First, both were inland low pressure systems, so in that sense they would be comparable, second, thank you for sharing NJwx85 

No problem.

We all understand that Sandy was an anomaly however it’s still relevant when considering historical data and trends regarding tropical cyclones and specifically wind damage.

  • Weenie 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Definitely looking more ragged this morning due to the reasons stated above but I think it’s worth keeping two things in mind:

1) Most guidance doesn’t have the center really begin to develop a core until ~18 hours from now when this has fully cleared Cuba and entered the southeastern Gulf

2) There’s already some bursts of convection near the center that’s offshore now. Let’s see what becomes of that between now and the next Cuban landfall. This is an extremely high OHC environment and the shear isn’t too bad looking at analysis.

 

Yeah I think the center will become organized and stable a lot quicker than most people would expect (at least with a "normal" tropical system, Laura is clearly far more resilient) with the strong bursts of convection already going off near the center. I think Cuba did more to make her APPEAR to look bad, but didnt really do much actual damage to her in terms of the long run and how strong she gets, she should be able to shrug this off without much issue and be more than prepared to take full advantage of the warm waters once FULLY clear of Cuba.

The only thing that could potentially impact her RI negatively is that Ive seen a few Pro Mets mentioning the possibility of a Rossby Wave potentially slowing her down slightly if the timing is exactly right, Im not educated enough to actually know exactly why or how that works though, so perhaps someone here can go into further detail on that situation.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Path this storm took pretty much maximized it’s exposure to the highest terrain of all major land masses in the Caribbean. That area between Cuba and Jamaica is about the worst spot too, being between mountain ranges on both sides. The inner “core” of Laura has dissolved as downsloping from Cuba was enough to choke it off. This is the kind of disruption that can take some time to recover from, especially being the storm will be ingesting air from Cuba for the remainder of the day. The downshear convection has also faded and become more of an area of convergence well south of the center. This means moisture is being robbed from the core on all sides. I do not expect any strengthening even with the coc technically over water through most of today. Until it can establish effective moisture transport to the center, we will see this system struggle. If it had maintained its core convection I believe we would see gradual strengthening through the course of the day. Essentially, there’s nothing to mix the dry air out. The modest North shear is being amplified by this as well. This may have downstream impacts as the system will take longer to coalesce near the center after it crosses Cuba for the final time tonight. 

576BA58A-BDC6-42F3-B60C-6077BF8E9BBF.jpeg

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Was this shear even forecasted to impact Laura? Guessing this is more topography induced as stated above. This may take quite some time for the core to organize. Conditions are there for RI but will be tougher if the system remains disorganized 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Was just about to mention recon. They should give us a good sense of where things really stand with this flight.

While it appears to be south it also appears to be a mess lol. So a new core will need to develop within that large mote of light winds and low pressure before reintensification occurs. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Was this shear even forecasted to impact Laura? Guessing this is more topography induced as stated above. This may take quite some time for the core to organize. Conditions are there for RI but will be tougher if the system remains disorganized 

I think shes got plenty of time before getting clear of Cuba and getting into the Gulf to do that though, and thats what really matters. Every hour she spends clear of Cuba and in those perfect conditions while still trying to get organized will be a win, but I doubt by the time shes TOTALLY clear that shell still be trying to organize unfortunately. Shes proven shes a warrior many times now and maybe with other storms(provided that actually lived through the terrain in the first place) itd be a big issue, but Laura is some sort of mutant tropical system lol.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

While it appears to be south it also appears to be a mess lol. So a new core will need to develop within that large mote of light winds and low pressure before reintensification occurs. 

Not sure how long they will be in there, but it’d be very helpful to get multiple center fixes to see how the center is/is not organizing, and a more precise heading. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.