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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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After passing over that eastern lower part of Cuba I think Laura could stay off shore which will allow it to maintain intensity and keep its core more intact. If that's the case I definitely think the possibility of a cat 3 making landfall increases. At least a high end cat 2

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Guantanamo radar shows that Laura literally shot through the valley between the two mountain ranges in the southern part of Cuba and is about to emerge beyond the mountains, into an area that is flat and surrounded by hot tropical oceans. It might not really weaken tonight, if not strengthen.

Main thing I'm wondering is which way it will turn once it clears mountains over the coming hours. On current trajectory it would end up south of Cuba, before hitting Cuba again at the northwest tip.

For anyone wondering, the core definitely survived. Could be an explosive night. First time that Laura has been free of mountain ranges in awhile. 

image.thumb.png.3b2e6fc294cecd43cac564b103043df5.png

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9 minutes ago, Doorman said:

Storm surge has not been mentioned...

Not expecting any storm surge here on the central Gulf Coast of Florida, nor extra high tides, but we already have the rollers that we only get when there is a tropical system in the Gulf!

 

clearwater-beach-082320-marco.jpg

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Look at the rapid wind increase at Guantanamo Bay.
MUGM 232351Z 13052G63KT 1SM +RA BR OVC010 24/23 A2976 RMK AO2 PK WND 13063/2348 SLP077 T2 SET P0101 60171 T02440233 10317 20239 53042 $
MUGM 232330Z 14040G58KT 1SM +RA BR BKN010 OVC020 24/23 A2975 RMK PK WND 14058/2325 T2 SET P0057 T02440233
MUGM 232307Z 16030G38KT 2 1/2SM RA BR FEW009 BKN020 OVC030 24/23 A2973 RMK AO2 PK WND 14038/2303 T2 SET P0008 T02440233 $
MUGM 232251Z 15017KT 1 1/2SM RA BR FEW009 BKN025 OVC035 24/23 A2972 RMK AO2 WSHFT 2138 VIS 1V2 1/2 SLP065 TS SET P0011 T02440233 $

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Winds at Guantanamo out of the south east now as well.  Still think the center of the low is slightly offshore to the west based on those obs

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5 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Look at the rapid wind increase at Guantanamo Bay.
MUGM 232351Z 13052G63KT 1SM +RA BR OVC010 24/23 A2976 RMK AO2 PK WND 13063/2348 SLP077 T2 SET P0101 60171 T02440233 10317 20239 53042 $
MUGM 232330Z 14040G58KT 1SM +RA BR BKN010 OVC020 24/23 A2975 RMK PK WND 14058/2325 T2 SET P0057 T02440233
MUGM 232307Z 16030G38KT 2 1/2SM RA BR FEW009 BKN020 OVC030 24/23 A2973 RMK AO2 PK WND 14038/2303 T2 SET P0008 T02440233 $
MUGM 232251Z 15017KT 1 1/2SM RA BR FEW009 BKN025 OVC035 24/23 A2972 RMK AO2 WSHFT 2138 VIS 1V2 1/2 SLP065 TS SET P0011 T02440233 $

Yeah, I've been talking with some of our Navy guys down there and they said it just came in like a truck in a sense. They could hear the dull roar in the distance as it approached. 

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Guantanamo 60 mph gusting to 72 mph out of the SE now.  impressive wind obs for the intensity the storm is currently pegged at

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Really incredible conditions outside right now. Winds gusting around 30 MPH with squall lines rolling in, and lightning flashes going off over the ocean. Feels like we're in a tropical storm no doubt!

Interesting how it started moving in right at sunset. Happy 28th anniversary Hurricane Andrew... Thank God this won't be a repeat of that here. 

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10 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Guantanamo 60 mph gusting to 72 mph out of the SE now.  impressive wind obs for the intensity the storm is currently pegged at

The mountains create a wind funnel. Almost forces the wind to speed up and turn to the SE

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30 minutes ago, Calderon said:

Yeah, I've been talking with some of our Navy guys down there and they said it just came in like a truck in a sense. They could hear the dull roar in the distance as it approached. 

Wow, that's past the 50kt sustained threshold. Some intense convection on radar perhaps bringing down some of those winds aloft from the OWM.

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Anyone know what conditions are like in Jamaica?  The entire island is now under the convection blob.

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Anyone know what conditions are like in Jamaica?  The entire island is now under the convection blob.

Just based on detected RS CGs, I'd say Jamaica has some intense heavy rainfall on the NE region of the island right now. There is strong convergence fed by SW surface flow training right over it into the MLC at present. Looks like they may have a rough night.

b37a313ff8ded4add30005395017681a.gif&key=c8bba0ee1e75c280e6ff316d7eab2a4048b2108713eb5c8364726d07e4fc6126

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11 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Anyone know what conditions are like in Jamaica?  The entire island is now under the convection blob.

Kingston reporting light TSRA.  Montego Bay reporting 1 1/4 mile moderate TSTM

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Convection is so persistent and intense right now with the MLC just NE of Jamaica. Need to watch that closely as that strong mid vort may drill down to the surface and create a new dominate vorticity maximum.

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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

Convection is so persistent and intense right now with the MLC just NE of Jamaica. Need to watch that closely as that strong mid vort may drill down to the surface and create a new dominate vorticity maximum.

Interesting theory, but although the convection looks very impressive, it is just feeder bans. The reason the center stayed on track along the northern coast of the Greater Antilles up to now is there is a massive jet of momentum shooting along the northern coast of the Greater Antilles. Every time recon flew into it there was almost hurricane force winds at flight level in that jet. 

Now that were past the mountains though, the jet will be able to cross Cuba, and the center will be able to go south of Cuba along with it. It's close to re-emerging in the Caribbean. With diurnal convective max I think Laura will quickly become a hurricane.

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26 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Really incredible conditions outside right now. Winds gusting around 30 MPH with squall lines rolling in, and lightning flashes going off over the ocean. Feels like we're in a tropical storm no doubt!

Interesting how it started moving in right at sunset. Happy 28th anniversary Hurricane Andrew... Thank God this won't be a repeat of that here. 

Hey turtle.  You think Laura comes further east? Maybe across FL?

Looking at water vapor. Its evident that there is a convergence zone. That Hp will probably not build. 

And what ever happens will not be across Texas but further east. 

 

 

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Interesting theory, but although the convection looks very impressive, it is just feeder bans. The reason the center stayed on track along the northern coast of the Greater Antilles up to now is there is a massive jet of momentum shooting along the northern coast of the Greater Antilles. Every time recon flew into it there was almost hurricane force winds at flight level in that jet. 

Now that were past the mountains though, the jet will be able to cross Cuba, and the center will be able to go south of Cuba along with it. It's close to re-emerging in the Caribbean. With diurnal convective max I think Laura will quickly become a hurricane.

It's not a theory. It's merely an empirical observation. That is an intense mid-level vortex. It wouldn't take much for it to become dominate seeing as how convection is waning to the north of the old larger/broader circulation.
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3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
5 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:
Interesting theory, but although the convection looks very impressive, it is just feeder bans. The reason the center stayed on track along the northern coast of the Greater Antilles up to now is there is a massive jet of momentum shooting along the northern coast of the Greater Antilles. Every time recon flew into it there was almost hurricane force winds at flight level in that jet. 

Now that were past the mountains though, the jet will be able to cross Cuba, and the center will be able to go south of Cuba along with it. It's close to re-emerging in the Caribbean. With diurnal convective max I think Laura will quickly become a hurricane.

 

It's not a theory. It's merely an empirical observation. That is an intense mid-level vortex. It wouldn't take much for it to become dominate seeing as how convection is waning to the north of the old larger/broader circulation.

What is considered low level vs mid level height wise for TC circulations? 

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8 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
10 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:
Interesting theory, but although the convection looks very impressive, it is just feeder bans. The reason the center stayed on track along the northern coast of the Greater Antilles up to now is there is a massive jet of momentum shooting along the northern coast of the Greater Antilles. Every time recon flew into it there was almost hurricane force winds at flight level in that jet. 
Now that were past the mountains though, the jet will be able to cross Cuba, and the center will be able to go south of Cuba along with it. It's close to re-emerging in the Caribbean. With diurnal convective max I think Laura will quickly become a hurricane.

It's not a theory. It's merely an empirical obsrrvation. That is an intense mid-level vortex. It wouldn't take much for it to become dominate seeing as how convection is waning to the north of the old larger/broader circulation.

The actual center the NHC is tracking is quite powerful. This is not a ragged storm that can easily relocate. 

FloridaWX: Regarding Florida, I think we will have some exotic, chaotic, and extreme weather tomorrow across the Sunshine State, but God spared us. It's extremely lucky. If this was 50-100 miles north, it would be a Cat 4 bearing down on the Keys and Southern Florida.

Instead, we get to enjoy some awesome weather without any serious damage!

I do think that convergence zone is eating away at the ridge a bit, but models seem to have accounted for that. The main thing pushing Laura more south is this upper level low dropping in from the east, which forms the eastern part of the ridge. It's pushing on Laura hard now, and our convergence zone won't make much of a difference. 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/CAR/08/GOES16-CAR-08-1000x1000.gif

Worst case scenario it ends up on the northern coast of Cuba as it passes South Florida, but even that seems unlikely, but still infinitesimally possible if there's an interaction with Marco, since Marco is going way further east than it was supposed to. 

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The actual center the NHC is tracking is quite powerful. This is not a ragged storm that can easily relocate.

 It's a 997 hPa surface vort now over land. It's also broad. Why would you even state this? This is about as susceptible to vortex reformations as it gets. It's not a banded core tropical cyclone man. It's a tilted vort to the south. Come on... 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

What is considered low level vs mid level height wise for TC circulations? 

Im just trying to understand how what is meant by low level vs mid level circulations. I assume the "low level circulation" is within a certain height envelope within the atmosphere vs the mid level?

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Im just trying to understand how what is meant by low level vs mid level circulations. I assume the "low level circulation" is within a certain height envelope within the atmosphere vs the mid level?

Surface to 750 hPa is generally considered within the low-level vorticity maximum. 750 to 500 hPa is the mid-level maximum. Above that gets into divergent expansion and the upper vorticity which bends flow away from vortex convection from 400-300 hPa and into outflow. Very powerful vorticity will push up on the tropopause at 200 hPa. This is why a well-formed eye looks like a stadium or has a stadium effect. The convective wall will not be vertically perpendicular to ocean surface. Also deeply stacked systems are more governed in motion by mid-level flow when they are intense. Yet, weaker non-convectively coupled systems are governed more by sub 700 hPa flow.
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50 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Really incredible conditions outside right now. Winds gusting around 30 MPH with squall lines rolling in, and lightning flashes going off over the ocean. Feels like we're in a tropical storm no doubt!

Interesting how it started moving in right at sunset. Happy 28th anniversary Hurricane Andrew... Thank God this won't be a repeat of that here. 

The convergence bands are brief but always fun. Melbourne NWS has a marine warning for a big part of the Treasure Coast for winds in excess of 34 knts.

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48 mph out of the SE at Guantanamo Bay and somehow the center is north of that?  Dude must think we live in Australia.

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