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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said:

997mb on the latest dropsonde 

 

 

It will bomb in the Caribbean if it finds a way to dive anther 30 miles southwest.

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7 minutes ago, Amped said:

It will bomb in the Caribbean if it finds a way to dive anther 30 miles southwest.

Next significant topographic feature for the storm to deal with are the Sierra Maestra mountains in Granma Province in southern Cuba this evening and tonight.  These peaks run up to 6000 feet in elevation and are situated west of Guantanamo.  After that the storm looks to work it’s way WNW parallel to the southern coast of Cuba  (unless it recenters again).  

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Just now, Tatamy said:

Next significant topographic feature for the storm to deal with are the Sierra Maestra mountains in Granma Province in southern Cuba this evening and tonight.  These peaks run up to 6000 feet in elevation and are situated west of Guantanamo.  After that the storm looks to work it’s way WNW parallel to the southern coast of Cuba  (unless it recenters again).  

Yes that's the key. Theres a lot less land for every mile it goes southwest. This will make a big intensity difference.

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Looks like southerly inflow is starting to become established again as it's passing the western tip of Haiti.  Looks good to miss most of Cuba south.  Potentially bad news for my hometown (Houston) or wherever it ends up on the NW gulf

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Massive convective explosion underway along the southern coast of Cuba as it smashes into the mountains. This convective blowup could get just as big than the one over Hispaniola last night. Sun setting soon and we will begin heading into diurnal convective max. 

Screen Shot 2020-08-23 at 4.46.38 PM.png

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1 hour ago, turtlehurricane said:

It's been extremely hot here in the 'calm before the storm', where the air on the outer periphery is subsiding. Heat index hit 112! Must be some sort of record. Even with a solid east breeze it is scorching out there. 

Anyways, all that heat is about to end, outer squall lines got strong enough to break through subsidence cap and should be here in 1-2 hours. Probably will be quite exciting weather. CAPE is tremendous, and also lots of helicity. Could make for some severe weather. 

Screen Shot 2020-08-23 at 3.33.36 PM.png

GOES19262020236RQgohB.jpg

This East wind in Jupiter is piling in the humidity. We are on the beach surfing and it’s almost unbearable. Stiff East wind helps a little but that’s the culprit of the humidity.  Couple showers coming onshore here now. Just watched a waterspout come onshore just south of the inlet. Beach was crowed lol.

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I'm not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but the 12Z Euro, GFS, and UKMET all show a binary interaction with Marco to some extent. At this point I'm not so sure Marco will even officially make landfall anywhere based on the 12Z model guidance. Whereas yesterday I was thinking the interaction might be minimal today I'm not so sure. And if it weren't for the fact that the ECMWF appeared to initialize Laura to far north (at least in my amateur opinion) I'd typically say it isn't wise to discount one of the best models in the world. I've been schooled on too many occasions that trying to out smart models is often a fools errand. But...given the circumstances I'm definitely leaning towards doing just that in this case. The higher probability call is for a further west and more intense cyclone than what the Euro is currently showing IMHO.

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are u ****ing kidding me? 

Are you surprised that’s what he thinks?


.
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One interesting thing I'm watching is the effects the surrounding mountains has on the circulation.  It's currently in an area where is bound on three sides by tall mountain ranges....Jamaica to the south, Cuba to the north, and Haiti to the east.  Wondering if that creates a type of Venturi effect and tightens up the vortex.

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Explosive hot tower development in the core now.  Still moving west along the south (not north) coast of Cuba.  The location of the new convective bursts also pretty much ensure the center gets tugged farther from the coast.  This might get real ugly for Cuba soon.

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30 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Massive convective explosion underway along the southern coast of Cuba as it smashes into the mountains. This convective blowup could get just as big than the one over Hispaniola last night. Sun setting soon and we will begin heading into diurnal convective max. 

Screen Shot 2020-08-23 at 4.46.38 PM.png

The issue here is that "convective explosion" probably doesn't have much to do with the mountains at all. If anything, the fetch over the mountains(northerly flow around center) suggests that there may even be some downsloping/subsidence involved. Though that seems unlikely given the presence of storms there. It doesn't seem like the mountains are really having that much of an effect at all at the moment.

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25 minutes ago, hlcater said:

The issue here is that "convective explosion" probably doesn't have much to do with the mountains at all. If anything, the fetch over the mountains(northerly flow around center) suggests that there may even be some downsloping/subsidence involved. Though that seems unlikely given the presence of storms there. It doesn't seem like the mountains are really having that much of an effect at all at the moment.

Similar effect to how cyclones form downwind of the rockies, from vorticity advection. 

BTW Center just made landfall at Guantanamo Bay according to radar https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/animate.html?icao=mugm&type=PPIZH240

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After the first recon pass I thought maybe the center would track south of Gitmo, but over the last few hours it has jogged nw right over Gitmo.  The latest NHC forecast only has the center passing over the peninsula to the west, but mostly remaining over water south of Cuba, but now the center is inland already and should remain over land tonight.

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2 minutes ago, brentrich said:

Anyone thinks Laura has a chance to become Cat 5 hurricane before landfall? 

You're probably best just rolling the dice on this one.  It is certainly *possible,* but probably not the most likely outcome. 

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5 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

You're probably best just rolling the dice on this one.  It is certainly *possible,* but probably not the most likely outcome. 

But this is 2020, after all...

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4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The center actually just passed north of Gitmo.  The wind has switched to the wnw.

So clearly running over land I wonder if we get a center relocation over the water under the new convection blob as the old center runs into the mountains west of Gitmo? 

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5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The center actually just passed north of Gitmo.  The wind has switched to the wnw.

You have an updated map or anything of the center fix? 

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You're probably best just rolling the dice on this one.  It is certainly *possible,* but probably not the most likely outcome. 

It's got a really good shot at becoming a major. I'd even say a Category 3 is likely. You can't spit out a dynamic pattern like that and say it's unlikely. That being said, too much luck for MPI and structural evolution has to be just about perfect for a Category 5. Could that happen? Yes. Will it? Heh...
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6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The center actually just passed north of Gitmo.  The wind has switched to the wnw.

If it passed to the north of Gitmo, wouldn't they have SE/ESE wind not wnw.

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4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Cuba radar

09.png

I've been watching this.  Looks like orograhic lifting causing some enhancement on the eastern side of the LLC. If it skirts along the southern coast.  Probably will not weaken much, but may get stronger overnight. 

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35 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
51 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:
You're probably best just rolling the dice on this one.  It is certainly *possible,* but probably not the most likely outcome. 

 

It's got a really good shot at becoming a major. I'd even say a Category 3 is likely. You can't spit out a dynamic pattern like that and say it's unlikely. That being said, too much luck for MPI and structural evolution has to be just about perfect for a Category 5. Could that happen? Yes. Will it? Heh...

I agree it's got some fairly primo conditions forecasted in the GOM as of now (I'm taking any model forecast beyond 48 hours with a grain of salt this year lol).  Do you think if it by chance tracks farther south of Cuba over water potentially getting it's core stacked sooner that it would make a significant difference in the potential strength it could achieve once it enters the GOM?  I think it might save it 12, maybe 24 hours of time organizing before it gets into the better environment (i.e. no land) but probably not a whole lot on the backend as it nears the coast. Speculation of course as currently it should spend more time over Cuba and just maintain its current intensity.

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35 minutes ago, FLweather said:

I've been watching this.  Looks like orograhic lifting causing some enhancement on the eastern side of the LLC. If it skirts along the southern coast.  Probably will not weaken much, but may get stronger overnight. 

Amazing how the forum opinions have changed the past day or so. I expected a shredded remnant of Laura when I woke up this morning. To my surprise it was still alive and not doing too bad. Adding a new term, "orographic," to my vocabulary and might throw it out there tomorrow to my friends who will look at me in confusion if Laura is still in the conversations.

This has been an adventurous week for we who love to follow storms yet know very little about them. At least I am not putting up plywood on my house toady. Whew.

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15 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

I agree it's got some fairly primo conditions forecasted in the GOM as of now (I'm taking any model forecast beyond 48 hours with a grain of salt this year lol).  Do you think if it by chance tracks farther south of Cuba over water potentially getting it's core stacked sooner that it would make a significant difference in the potential strength it could achieve once it enters the GOM?  I think it might save it 12, maybe 24 hours of time organizing before it gets into the better environment (i.e. no land) but probably not a whole lot on the backend as it nears the coast. Speculation of course as currently it should spend more time over Cuba and just maintain its current intensity.

I think any additional time over water will be problematic, but I think what matters more is how well developed a core there is when Laura returns over water. The better organized, the more efficiently it will be able to take advantage of the favorable environment. The 18z HWRF looks to have had a good initialization, and has this back over water by 09z. There isn't much intensification before another landfall over NW Cuba, but that could be valuable time to consolidate the core under the best convection. Like the other models, the HWRF really blows this up in the Gulf...

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