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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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21 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

From Ryan Maue (via Twitter), the 00z Euro ensemble tracks.

EgGevqdXoAUMGG8.jpg

The CoC already appears to be well south of this...by ~100 miles, tracking along the southern coast of Haiti.. At least that’s what I’m increasingly seeing evidence of on vis and IR. It also strains credulity to think Laura would be in this current (relatively robust) structural state if she was still in the process of crossing over the heart of Hispaniola....

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6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea I’d really be hedging my forecast  south of this....

I'm just curious if we can get a decent center fix on this thing before it heads over Cuba. 

Pretty massive implications if this rides the southern coast instead of riding the spine. 

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Earlier when I mentioned (really most everyone has been howling about) the favorable upper pattern for Laura as it traverses the GOM. It really doesn't get much more favorable than this. Look at the placement of the 200 hPa ridge axis. It pivots right over the GOM into the S CONUS as Laura would be traversing underneath it. There is a cutoff low that trails behind through the deep Caribbean. There is a strong upper jet attached from the S. Plains off the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, not only an anti-cyclonic pattern but two strong dual outflow channels. It is no wonder virtually all the ensemble members that are further West get quite explosive with Laura. It's really just a matter of how much time Laura can organize structurally after exiting western Cuba as that's about as dynamic and amped a pattern as you will see modeled.

 

A worse scenario could unfold if Laura's dominate vort manages to take a slightly more southern track and parallel the southern side of the Cuban coastline versus riding over the entire length of the island. Yesterday we were worried about a dominate vort staying offshore just north and punching the Florida Straits. Any prolonged time spent over land helps keep a lid on Laura taking advantage of these great dynamics in the short-term. But a slight deviation that keeps it over water could blow that lid off.f319ef35149ff23947ec157a7bae2f3f.gif&key=6687b4619c2722bc7e5ead7611be36f545d0fa401dd8b74f15aeeed68f8b8a04

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Do you think Marco will cause enough upwelling to lower SST's ahead of Laura? Marco is pretty small and not too robust so makes me think that should be kept at a minimum. The outflow pattern for Laura now is impressive 

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Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

Do you think Marco will cause enough upwelling to lower SST's ahead of Laura? Marco is pretty small and not too robust so makes me think that should be kept at a minimum. The outflow pattern for Laura now is impressive 

Windspeed had a great post about this on the previous page. 

TLDR: Marco is small and doesn't have that much of a core right now. Its fast motion will also limit the amount of upwelling. Laura should be fine with temps in the 30-31 Celsius range. 

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2 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Windspeed had a great post about this on the previous page. 

TLDR: Marco is small and doesn't have that much of a core right now. Its fast motion will also limit the amount of upwelling. Laura should be fine with temps in the 30-31 Celsius range. 

Yea Laura has potential to be something bad especially if it doesn't traverse Cuba the whole time and stays closer to water. Even if it does traverse the island the pattern for excellent venting, minimal shear, and very warm temps definitely could support rapid intensification. Honestly a major hurricane wouldn't shock me

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@StormChaser4Life here are current SST’s for the Gulf of Mexico. It’s a straight up bathtub. Even if Marco cools them down a degree it’s not going to negatively impact in an adverse way. For those that aren’t familiar with Celsius, sea temps right now are 86-87, with some spots approaching 88 on the map as one gets to 31 Celsius. All in all today is a big day for meteorology standards to see where Laura chooses, whether it be inland for a significant period of time or whether it be in past instances where the TC’s tend to feel the friction of land and prefer to stay sea side. 

ECD401DB-91B8-4348-BF89-1D7FCA8464B6.png

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8 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Do you think Marco will cause enough upwelling to lower SST's ahead of Laura? Marco is pretty small and not too robust so makes me think that should be kept at a minimum. The outflow pattern for Laura now is impressive 

The current standing for TCHP in the Gulf is pretty ripe for any organized systems to really feed into the development with the proper upper level support. The depth of the mixed layer over the central and western Gulf is the deepest part of this particular body of water.

ohc_aQG3_latest_natl.zoom.gifmld_aQG3_latest_natl.gif

 

The quick moving nature of Marco and the fact it's expected to be void of any significant strengthening due to unfavorable upper level environment will stunt any chances of the system providing enough up-welling to curb Laura's potential. (Windspeed touched on this earlier, so just echoing his sentiment).

 

 

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

The current standing for TCHP in the Gulf is pretty ripe for any organized systems to really feed into the development with the proper upper level support. The depth of the mixed layer over the central and western Gulf is the deepest part of this particular body of water.

ohc_aQG3_latest_natl.zoom.gifmld_aQG3_latest_natl.gif

 

The quick moving nature of Marco and the fact it's expected to be void of any significant strengthening due to unfavorable upper level environment will stunt any chances of the system providing enough up-welling to curb Laura's potential. (Windspeed touched on this earlier, so just echoing his sentiment).

 

 

Nothing to add really. The discussion the last few pages has been very good. 

Good to see you posting :) 

 

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20 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

I'm just curious if we can get a decent center fix on this thing before it heads over Cuba. 

Pretty massive implications if this rides the southern coast instead of riding the spine. 

I dunno...to me we’ve seen this movie many times before. When the LLC of weak, non-vertically stacked TC traverses land, surface pressure falls are no longer greatest in the vicinity of the LLC and instead the area of greatest surface pressure falls is near the MLC, especially if it is intense and over water...

I think this is what has happened here...

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Nothing to add really. The discussion the last few pages has been very good. 

Good to see you posting :) 

 

Should be fun to watch unfold from a meteorological stand point. I have zero skin in this game, so I'll be sitting with a cold drink and my computer on Tuesday/Wednesday watching this go to town. 

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It's definitely apparent the more west this gets before turning north, the more access it has to high oceanic heat content. Regardless even if it tracked along the furthest east portion of the cone, Laura will have sufficient warm water and that coupled with good outflow is a recipe for trouble 

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7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I dunno...to me we’ve seen this movie many times before. When the LLC of weak, non-vertically stacked TC traverses land, surface pressure falls are no longer greatest in the vicinity of the LLC and instead the area of greatest surface pressure falls is near the MLC, especially if it is intense and over water...

I think this is what has happened here...

Interesting observation picked up by Sillin as well

 

 

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Hopefully it's not as bad as it looks, but Haiti probably does end up with crazy rainfall totals out of Laura and a lot of destructive flooding through tonight. *Sigh*... poor Haiti. Seems like every five years or so they get rocked by some very bad mojo and a natural disaster.

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3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Hopefully it's not as bad as it looks, but Haiti probably does end up with crazy rainfall totals out of Laura and a lot of destructive flooding through tonight. *Sigh*... poor Haiti. Seems like every five years or so they get rocked by some very bad mojo and a natural disaster.

Absolutely, there is likely incredible flash flooding occurring there currently. The lack of trees to hold the tropical soils means mud flows. Add an extremely poor population living in substandard housing and you have another humanitarian crisis. Pretty much a worst case scenario right now 

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Recon found some really strong winds on the north coast of Hispaniola, too bad they didn't go through the Mona passage for whatever reason! Probably highest winds are around the northwestern tip of Hispaniola. Anyways, this supports the theory that the center is along the northern coast of Hispaniola, and in-fact latest visible satellite shows center is emerging into Mona passage near the northwest tip of Hispaniola, which is right along the NHC track. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-01-24-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

 

Screen Shot 2020-08-23 at 10.28.57 AM.png

Based on HWRF and HMON, which NAILED this scenario, it will likely go north of the eastern end of Cuba, at least for now. 

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3 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Recon found some really strong winds on the north coast of Hispaniola, too bad they didn't go through the Mona passage for whatever reason! Probably highest winds are around the northwestern tip of Hispaniola. Anyways, this supports the theory that the center is along the northern coast of Hispaniola, and in-fact latest visible satellite shows center is emerging into Mona passage near the northwest tip of Hispaniola, which is right along the NHC track. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-01-24-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

 

Screen Shot 2020-08-23 at 10.28.57 AM.png

Based on HWRF and HMON, which NAILED this scenario, it will likely go north of the eastern end of Cuba, at least for now. 

So you still truly believe this isn’t going to reform where the intense -85 to -90 cloud tops are or were over south central DR? Is that more or less just extreme orographical lift essentially? 

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4 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Recon found some really strong winds on the north coast of Hispaniola, too bad they didn't go through the Mona passage for whatever reason! Probably highest winds are around the northwestern tip of Hispaniola. Anyways, this supports the theory that the center is along the northern coast of Hispaniola, and in-fact latest visible satellite shows center is emerging into Mona passage near the northwest tip of Hispaniola, which is right along the NHC track. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-01-24-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

 

Screen Shot 2020-08-23 at 10.28.57 AM.png

Based on HWRF and HMON, which NAILED this scenario, it will likely go north of the eastern end of Cuba, at least for now. 

Why ignore the center south of Les Cayes? 

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Why ignore the center south of Les Cayes? 

That's not a center, just a wind shift associated with the interaction with the mountains. There's only one real center as shown by the visible satellite, and it's the same center the NHC is showing. It's actually way more organized now than when it first hit Hispaniola, which is kind of crazy. However, might get messy since convection will be anchored near mountains for some time as the real center races WNW. 

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Just now, turtlehurricane said:

That's not a center, just a wind shift associated with the interaction with the mountains. There's only one real center as shown by the visible satellite, and it's the same center the NHC is showing. It's actually way more organized now than when it first hit Hispaniola, which is kind of crazy. However, might get messy since convection will be anchored near mountains for some time as the real center races WNW. 

I mean, maybe. But there's northeasterlies there. 

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That thing the recon found is actually the demarcation between southerly inflow that is hitting the mountains and the circulation that is free of the mountains and shooting through the Mona passage. 

I think once that 'demarcation line' shifts enough west, as the actual center moves west, the southerly inflow will begin crashing into the mountains of Cuba and we will see a big convective blowup near the south end of Cuba. Could happen any hour now (maybe more towards late afternoon actually). 

image.png.94f2614e5db8d7a858a17c4246860839.png

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Don’t like to post here because frankly I don’t have the knowledge to do so, but it sure looks to me that this thing is riding the southern coast of Hisp. and is going to emerge south of Cuba. 
 

She also looks very healthy on sat.

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