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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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12 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Uhh.... Laura's vortex is about to make landfall.
e14c3a743dc1ed86edbfabe14bde07b1.gif

GFS 6hrs had a 750 and 500 vort on the southern PR coast.

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That vortex is so tiny and fragile, high elevation in PR will shred it.

The mid level vort may survive however and reposition a future LLC north of the DR. I honestly thought the HWRF was on crack last night and especially this morning's 6z run. But Laura may very well be gaining some serious latitude here in the short-term IRL.
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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:
5 minutes ago, hlcater said:
That vortex is so tiny and fragile, high elevation in PR will shred it.

 

The mid level vort may survive however and reposition a future LLC north of the DR however. I honestly thought the HWRF was on crack last night and especially this morning's 6z run. But Laura may very well be gaining some serious latitude here in the short-term IRL.

That's possible yes, especially when you consider that the current LLC is extremely displaced relative to all the convection and is going into hispaniola in short order. If the MLC survives and keeps up the rigor of convection that it has had recently, its plausible that another LLC develops there later today. However, it's still important to remember that the wave axis is still off to the east making it a bit easier to consolidate vort there, but intensity of convection may overcome that?

 

I will say it would be an absolute game changer if Laura's primary circulation remained north of all the higher terrain on Cuba/Hispaniola. A development that would almost ensure a hurricane of decent intensity in the gulf.

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Euro is 997mb at 84hrs on pivotal weather. Actually weakening

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7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is coming in strong  with storm 2 so far

 

3 minutes ago, Amped said:

Euro is 997mb at 84hrs on pivotal weather. Actually weakening


So which is it? 

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Just now, WesterlyWx said:

 


So which is it? 

Euro has the storm going over most of the islands probably disrupting the core so it doesn't strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico

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Just now, WesterlyWx said:

 


So which is it? 

997mb landfall SE LA.  It's a moderate TS not worth overhyping.

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Just now, Amped said:

997mb landfall SE LA.  It's a moderate TS not worth overhyping.

Euro wrong. 997 mb entering gulf won't weaken .

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6 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

Euro wrong. 997 mb entering gulf won't weaken .

Wait for the EPS.   It will give a better idea of the intensity/track distribution.

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10 minutes ago, brentrich said:

No shear, no dry air and 31+ C water, it will explode to Cat 4/5 hurricane. 

I didn’t ask you. When stating a model is wrong, there needs to be an explanation why. As for you and your hype of every single system, please read more and post less 

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Looking at the HWRF, the tracks for both Laura and Marco cannot both be right. This is 108 hours for each storm. There is no way they can both be in the same spot. Clearly one, if not both, are wrong.

Screen%20Shot%202020-08-22%20at%202.41.1

Screen%20Shot%202020-08-22%20at%202.41.3

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24 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

Euro wrong. 997 mb entering gulf won't weaken .

Here's why it's weakening, or at least not bombing out to a CAT 6 MEGACANE on the Euro. Looks like ~10-15kts of easterly shear and a pretty dry environment. It's not terrible by any means, but it isn't exactly pristine either.

ecmwf_full_2020082212_084_area_26.28-28.75.-89.9--86.29.png

500rh.conus.png

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Just now, Random Chaos said:

Looking at the HWRF, the tracks for both Laura and Marco cannot both be right. This is 108 hours for each storm. There is no way they can both be in the same spot. Clearly one, if not both, are wrong.

Screen%20Shot%202020-08-22%20at%202.41.1

Screen%20Shot%202020-08-22%20at%202.41.3

That's incredible 

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2 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

Looking at the HWRF, the tracks for both Laura and Marco cannot both be right. This is 108 hours for each storm. There is no way they can both be in the same spot. Clearly one, if not both, are wrong.

Screen%20Shot%202020-08-22%20at%202.41.1

Screen%20Shot%202020-08-22%20at%202.41.3

If you look carefully, you'll see that they're both Laura, just resolved under different instances of the model. It threw me off too initially.

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7 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

Looking at the HWRF, the tracks for both Laura and Marco cannot both be right. This is 108 hours for each storm. There is no way they can both be in the same spot. Clearly one, if not both, are wrong.

 

 

HWRF dissapated MACRO at 72hrs over MS, Then it latched onto Laura cause it looked for any low pressure in the area.

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not sure if this was an elevated location but impressive nonetheless.

 

Salinas is on the coast maybe just to the west near where the core came ashore. 

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