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Major Hurricane Laura

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22 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Personally right now when a storm is (or storms are ) maybe and maybe not, a dynamic interaction between idiots and geniuses keeps me entertained enough to not resort to basic news. Keep everything interesting and I keep coming back all day and all night until I go to sleep. ;)

I am thankful there is a mix of ideas and personalities here. It appears some of you have a looooong history! This is just my second year.

I disagree. This is my first post here; I don’t contribute because I don’t know what I’m talking about. But I lurk frequently because I seek high quality information. I stay far away from the /r/tropicalweather subreddit because it is full of baseless conjecture and alarmism from random people with no way to tell what their qualifications are. That sort of dialogue is anxiety inducing when you live in a hurricane-prone area. I come to this board because it doesn’t have that;  it’s people talking about data and learning/explaining weather phenomena. I hope this board stays mostly free of panic, wishcasting, and declarative statements.

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5 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Did the NHC track just shift north?

I was watching radar here in S FL, and storms all week were moving SW to NE, and now I notice radar looks like they are moving SE to NW, so is there some shift in winds:Blocking?

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Closed center is hard to find. Someone needs to put it on a milk carton with a $50,000 reward.

1Q7uIYU.png

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For those of you pondering the variability among intensity forecasts, the shear isn't going to be exactly "minimal" as Laura makes its way into the gulf.  Projections look like the 15-25 kt range upon entry into the gulf:

2020al13_diagplot_202008220000.png

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40 minutes ago, Richie said:

I disagree. This is my first post here; I don’t contribute because I don’t know what I’m talking about. But I lurk frequently because I seek high quality information.

At this moment there are over 500 people on this site, and to be honest we are not in the serious storm mode yet, if we even get there. This is a popular forum to say the least. As a web developer/SEO pro, this forum has earned my total respect.

I agree with you, this is where I come for the latest "truth" about what is going on with storms. But as Francis Bacon said 400 years ago, "What is Truth?"

As is obvious, in the year 2020 with all the models and experts and experienced pros, the "truth" about what might happen is all over the place. But this is a place where those ideas come up and are argued sometimes intensely. I love that.

But even that can be boring, genius against genius. It can be like secret MET code arguments that leave us eager weather geeks out of the mix. "OK, yea, what the heck are they saying? Who is right? Who is the smartest?"

But the idiot banter is a part of this. If this were my website and I was in charge, I'd probably realize this is part of the reason why there might be 500 people obsessively reading these posts. That is partly if not mostly the public, the lay people, who wish for and fear a storm. There are the best of the best METs here to read, but being a part of the discussion for lay people is huge, and great fun!

Already after my short time here I have my favorite METs, and others that I am not so much a fan. Of the "idiots" (which I may be included so far), I have my favorites and others I am not a fan. But I am a total fan of the forums.

How boring if everyone here agreed totally and nobody was outside. Number one it would be like one track in a spaghetti plot.

Bacon also said, " Truth may perhaps come to the price of a pearl that showeth best by day; but it will not rise to the price of a diamond or carbuncle, that showeth best in varied lights. A mixture of a lie doth ever add pleasure."

I hope this forum stays free and allows a varied mix. I hope I don't get blocked. I know this is way off topic. ;)

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If it survives Hispaniola and Cuba that is... if EPS are right.  One would think it would have a hard time doing much running through both countries for a long period of time with the center near or inland
 

 

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42 minutes ago, yoda said:
If it survives Hispaniola and Cuba that is... if EPS are right.  One would think it would have a hard time doing much running through both countries for a long period of time with the center near or inland
 

 

 

Right now Laura almost looks like an open wave. Not much to tear apart. 

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Quote

A dramatic southward shift has occurred with the 18z ECMWF+EPS guidance for Tropical Storm Laura

South?

Do the models not show a slight shift to the north?
Look below, 18z on the left compared to 12z on the right for HWRF, HMON, and HWRF-Para:

18z-12z-082120.thumb.jpg.38a4d70ec52f1ba12bf8c512b0a412ea.jpg

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13 minutes ago, Prospero said:

South?

Do the models not show a slight shift to the north?
Look below, 18z on the left compared to 12z on the right for HWRF, HMON, and HWRF-Para:

18z-12z-082120.thumb.jpg.38a4d70ec52f1ba12bf8c512b0a412ea.jpg

I agree the track was dramatically shifted south this morning if anything it’s bounced back to the north a bit.  I think the models are having a problem latching onto a closed well defined center.  Also to complicate matters if Laura remains weak it certainly is possible for a few more center relocations though Puerto Rico and possibly Hatti and Cuba as well especially with this weak presentation. 

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132020
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND LAURA QUITE DISORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THIS
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 63.5W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch
to a Tropical Storm Warning for the southeastern Bahamas and Turks
and Caicos Islands, and issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
central Bahamas.

The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and
Montserrat.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
the border with Haiti
* The northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas to the
border with the Dominican Republic
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Cuba should monitor the progress of Laura.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 63.5 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and a 
generally west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward 
speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, 
the center of Laura will move near or over portions of the Leeward 
Islands tonight, near or over Puerto Rico Saturday morning, and 
near the northern coast of Hispaniola Saturday night and early 
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Laura is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, the
southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern Cuba through Sunday. Maximum
amounts up to 8 inches are possible along eastern portions and the
southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as well as over Haiti, the Dominican
Republic and eastern Cuba. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash
and urban flooding, as well as an increased potential for mudslides
with minor river flooding in Puerto Rico.

1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches is
expected over the northern Leeward Islands, the Turks and Caicos 
and southeast Bahamas.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area area tonight through Sunday.  Tropical storm 
conditions are possible within portions of the watch area Sunday 
night.

SURF:  Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of
the northern Leeward Islands.  These swells are expected to spread
across the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba,
and much of the Bahamas during the next few days.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132020
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020

Laura remains quite disorganized this evening.  Although satellite
and radar images show a fair amount of deep convection over and to
the east of the northern Leeward Islands, NOAA Hurricane
Hunter data and surface observations indicate that the low-level
center is located well to the west of the main area of deep
convection.  This asymmetric structure indicates that Laura is still
not vertically aligned due to at least moderate wind shear.  The
initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 40 kt, and most of
the strongest winds are well north and east of the center.

The steering pattern for Laura appears to be very well established.
A subtropical ridge over the central and western Atlantic is
expected to expand westward, and that should cause Laura to move
west-northwestward at a fairly quick pace during the next few days.
This should take the storm across Puerto Rico on Saturday, near
Hispaniola Saturday night, and close to or over Cuba on Sunday and
Monday.  By early next week, Laura should approach the western end
of the ridge and that should cause the storm to slow down and turn
toward the northwest over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico.
Even though the steering pattern is well established, there are
still chances of center reformations, which could cause small but
important track changes.  The NHC track forecast has been adjusted
a little to the south of the previous one to account for the more
southern initial position and westward motion.  Near the end of the 
period, Laura's track could also be influenced by Tropical Storm 
Marco, which is also forecast to be over the Gulf of Mexico, 
however the details of that interaction are highly uncertain 
at this time.

Although the storm's structure is quite ragged at the moment, some
of the models do show Laura becoming better organized this
weekend and early next week due to a decrease in wind shear and
very warm waters.  However, there is significant uncertainty on how
much the circulation will interact with the rugged islands of
Hispaniola and Cuba.  If the storm is able to stay north of those
islands, some notable strengthening is possible as depicted by the
HWRF and HMON models.  However, if the storm moves over the
islands, it might not strengthen at all until it passes through
that area.   The bottom line is the intensity forecast is very
track dependent, which makes it more uncertain than normal.  Given
that the new track shows more land interaction, this forecast shows
less strengthening in the short term, but is largely unchanged at
the longer forecast times.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico
through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along
the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and the
Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas Saturday into Sunday.
Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas beginning and could
cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the
central Bahamas Sunday night.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move
near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday.
However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts
to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week and
the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week.  Interests
there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the
forecast during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 17.0N  63.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 17.6N  65.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 18.4N  69.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  23/1200Z 19.5N  72.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  24/0000Z 20.8N  76.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 60H  24/1200Z 22.1N  80.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 72H  25/0000Z 23.8N  83.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  26/0000Z 26.5N  87.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  27/0000Z 29.2N  90.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I agree the track was dramatically shifted south this morning if anything it’s bounced back to the north a bit.

Looks like the landfalls have shifted east closer to or over Florida as well on the 18z. But yea, this has been a Laura yo-yo for days making me dizzy. :unsure:

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Laura will be enjoying the all of the islands on the 11pm track

Good for us who live on the GOM, maybe a bit disappointing as far as a thrill, but who needs more life disruption right now anyway.

Curious what the next runs show, not that it matters with Laura as it will change again...

 

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55 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Looks like the landfalls have shifted east closer to or over Florida as well on the 18z. But yea, this has been a Laura yo-yo for days making me dizzy. :unsure:

This had all the hallmarks of a whiplash storm. Given the multitude of issues with the environment and track, I don't think we get clarity until this gets to DR/Haiti. It's so weak a center reformation could make a significant difference in track and intensity...as the NHC states.

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Track has shifted west on the GFS GEFS and EPS.   This is concerning. since most of the TX tracks are stronger. Low windshear day 4 until near the northern gulf coast. 

ph1EhXl.png

 

 

 

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CMC way northeast. 12z vs 00z. Like most have said, all speculation until we understand true center. CMC also seems to have 14 lurking at same latitude...possibly pushing Laura east?

IMG_2020-08-22_00-30-17.JPG

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28 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

Ukmet has a major hurricane. 

And it has it going straight to south Texas lol. The models are all over the place right now. It actually had it going south of Cuba

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HWRF and HMON sticking with a more easterly track through the Keys/FL and with it mostly staying north of PR/Cuba, and imo I think they will end up being the most "right" and they have been more accurate thus far through the short term. I think many of the other models are coming up with an extreme westerly track into Texas/LA because they dont believe there can be two powerful storms in the Gulf at once and are forecasting TD14 to basically be nothing more than a TD, it wouldnt make sense for Laura to take such a westerly track if TD14 is also a cat 1-3, right? 

Also, as of right now @ 1:45am EST Laura looks to be improving and developing a core fairly quickly.

HWRF was nearly spot on with its 18Z, Laura has a very similar look as of right now:

hwrf_satIR_13L_3.png

Dunno about the rest of you but ill be paying the most attention to HWRF, its continually proving to be the most accurate with this storm so far

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The key to watch is it maintenance convection to the gulf that will allow it to bomb out in the gulf like the ukmet has. Ukmet has 961 mb hurricane into South Texas.  More convection is more upper air outflow.

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Definitely trying to get it together, but I’m not sure that’s a new LLC right now. It could easily be the MLC or a dominant mesovortex. My guess is that’s the MLC attempt to work down a new and organized LLC. Shear is still there, but is a much more manageable 15kts per UW-CMISS analysis. 

Still likely to run head first into one or both of the greater Antilles islands. That’s a good thing because the guidance trend for the Gulf is not good. I’m still waiting to see what happens when there’s interaction with the greater Antilles, but I remain down the middle with my intensity thoughts. 

JqhdqrS.jpg

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