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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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4 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Let's wait until Sunday before we start throwing crap to the wall and see if it sticks

For now, focus on finding the core and go from there

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

This is like asking early 20 somethings to not congregate in large numbers, to abstain from alcohol, and to practice abstinence.

Every time there is uncertainty regarding a TC forecast, you'll get the people falling on their sword calling it a bust too early, and the other people that only believe the bullish forecasts.

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18 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

This is like asking early 20 somethings to not congregate in large numbers, to abstain from alcohol, and to practice abstinence.

The online weather country is divided between those that believe these two storms will not do anything and those who expect strong hurricanes. It seems that is the 2020 mentality on all things! ^_^

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There are a few outlier right tracks on the spaghetti plots with approach trajectories that would be definite concerns for Tampa Bay if this were to deepen significantly, but as of now not a tangible likelihood.

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1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Let's wait until Sunday before we start throwing crap to the wall and see if it sticks

For now, focus on finding the core and go from there

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

It's moving over mountains of PR HS an CU. Any core will be temporary unless it forms 75 miles north of where any model had it.   It will have about 48hrs between Cuba and the northern gulf coast to strengthen. Until then, fairly high confidence it will remain weak.  

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1 hour ago, Amped said:

1000mb on the Euro. TD 14 gets to 1003mb.   Dud and dud.

Unless you believe the HWRF, in which case we've already  had 6 major hurricanes this season, so this one doesn't really matter.

Edit: 997mb over land. It starts deepening when it crosses the coast. Just what we love,  a too little too late comeback.

12z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET all show similar scenarios.  Two weak-mdt TSs in the GOMEX.  These global models have come a long way for TC forecasting, and they know the surrounding large-scale synoptic environment better than any meso or TC model.  If you look at the SHIPS output for both Laura and TD14, there is sig increase shear 3-5 days from now when they are in the GOMEX.  Mid-level RH decreases as well (under 60%).  You can't just ignore these factors.  All the warm ocean in the world means next nothing for TCs if the atmosphere doesn't cooperate (wind shear/RH).

21/18z GFS SHIPS output here for both current TCs:
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2020/al142020/stext/20082118AL1420_ships.txt
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2020/al132020/stext/20082118AL1320_ships.txt

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25 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Three discrete areas of pulsing convection now for Laura?  That's not good.
 

lauraIR.jpg

SAL and dry air have the upper hand ATM. 

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TROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132020
500 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2020

A POORLY-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS BECOME EVIDENT OVER THE 
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER, THERE IS LITTLE 
OR NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  OVERALL, THE 
SYSTEM'S CLOUD PATTERN STILL HAS A RAGGED APPEARANCE.  DVORAK 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT, AND THE CURRENT 
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM HURRICANE 
HUNTER OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLIER TODAY.  THERE IS A FAIRLY 
WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AT THIS TIME, BUT AN 
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF LAURA COULD BE AN IMPEDIMENT TO 
FUTURE STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE 
BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MAINLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE 
LAND MASSES OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.  AT DAYS 4-5, THE INTENSITY 
FORECAST IS ALSO A BIT BELOW THE CONSENSUS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES AT 
THESE LONGER FORECAST RANGES.

THE CENTER IS NOT VERY EASY TO SEE, EVEN ON VISIBLE OR RADAR 
IMAGES, BUT THE BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION IS 275/15 KT.  THE 
TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY PACKAGE.  LAURA SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR ABOUT THE 
NEXT 72 HOURS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE CYCLONE IS 
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE AROUND THE 
WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD 
AT DAYS 4-5 AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST, WHICH IS MOSTLY 
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT NOT QUITE AS FAR WEST AS THAT 
GUIDANCE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ANOTHER NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE 
LAURA SHORTLY.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED 
ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI FROM 
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.   HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS 
BEGINNING TODAY AND COULD CAUSE MUDSLIDES AND FLASH AND URBAN 
FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY.

2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE 
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

3. THE DETAILS OF THE LONG-RANGE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS
REMAIN MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL SINCE LAURA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER, LAURA COULD BRING STORM SURGE, RAINFALL, AND WIND IMPACTS
TO PORTIONS OF CUBA, THE BAHAMAS, AND FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. INTERESTS
THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LAURA AND UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 17.1N  61.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 17.7N  63.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 18.6N  67.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 19.6N  70.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 48H  23/1800Z 20.5N  74.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  24/0600Z 22.0N  77.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 23.5N  81.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 26.3N  86.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 29.0N  89.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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Recon is currently doing an upper level dropsonde mission for the immediate environment and environment ahead. Should be helpful data collected there.
Bone dry above 750mb

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Since this has so much interest right now... I add this to Laura only, and you all may be aware of this.  I think I heard in the satellite era, two TS's have never existed simultaneously in GMEX at the same time.  Here is info from two top notch reliable sources via another FB forum.  Interesting situation developing. 

  • 1959 TS Beulah in west Gulf and unnamed TS in the east.
  • September 1933. A landfall CAT 3 near Brownsville TX and a TS in the eastern Gulf.
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GFS verification scores are horrible right now so take with a grain of salt. That being said, please keep in mind that global operationals are not intended to be good for intensity forecast. You use them more for track and pattern. You use the hurricane mesoscales and TC statisticals for that.

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33 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

Down to 964 mb . That's a cat 3. Typical gfs consistency or not.

Hurricane models are similiar

Euro  is struggling like it has all summer

Bath water  in the GOM

This storm should end up being a Cat 2 or Cat 3.

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4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hurricane models are similiar

Euro  is struggling like it has all summer

Bath water  in the GOM

This storm should end up being a Cat 2 or Cat 3.

With covid in the south we should pray for a weak system that's sheared and not too strong .

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14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hurricane models are similiar

Euro  is struggling like it has all summer

Bath water  in the GOM

This storm should end up being a Cat 2 or Cat 3.

Doubt it, look at Michael, didn't took long to become Cat 5 so Laura could be one of them. 

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2 minutes ago, brentrich said:

Doubt it, look at Michael, didn't took long to become Cat 5 so Laura could be one of them. 

Yeah, no. 

Michael had just about every single, if not every, ingredient go right for him to do what he did in 3 days. 

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If you look at the 18z SHIPS output, the shear increases by 108 hr along with the mid-level RH dropping below 60%.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2020/al132020/stext/20082118AL1320_ships.txt

TD14 has this same issue except it begins around 60 hr.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2020/al142020/stext/20082118AL1420_ships.txt

This doesn't bode well for either systems once in the GOMEX.

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29 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Michael was a pathetic cat 5 anyways

Flattened an area where I lived as a little kid in the 60's. Hurricane Michael was no joke, even though quickly forgotten by a LOT of people within a year.

 

 

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There's definitely a large spread in expectations from an NWP perspective. Of the TVCN members the globals are relatively tame, but the cyclone models HMON, HWRF, and COAMPS are relatively aggressive. I'm just now seeing the 18Z cycles roll in. It looks like the HMON is a big tick up in intensity from its previous cycle. HWRF is still doing its thing. 12Z COAMPS brought it down 958mb in the GOM. Clearly there is some upside potential despite the general environmental conditions at this time and the more muted global guidance.

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19 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

If you look at the 18z SHIPS output, the shear increases by 108 hr along with the mid-level RH dropping below 60%.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2020/al132020/stext/20082118AL1320_ships.txt

TD14 has this same issue except it begins around 60 hr.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2020/al142020/stext/20082118AL1420_ships.txt

This doesn't bode well for either systems once in the GOMEX.

Theres an upper level anticyclone over the n gom between 4 and 5.5 days. Synoptically that seems like a good environment. That environmental mid level rh is sufficient as the system has a decent moisture envelope with it imo. 

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24 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

This thread need moderators, because the idiots are out in full-force.

Personally right now when a storm is (or storms are ) maybe and maybe not, a dynamic interaction between idiots and geniuses keeps me entertained enough to not resort to basic news. Keep everything interesting and I keep coming back all day and all night until I go to sleep. ;)

I am thankful there is a mix of ideas and personalities here. It appears some of you have a looooong history! This is just my second year.

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