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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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Hey Don, I was thinking about something similar.
When I was a kid growing up tracking hurricanes and storms (1998, 1999), I remember weather and climate patterns up here in Ohio seeming much different than today. I was discussing this with my mom recently, as we made note that blackberry bushes were rampant in this area growing up, and now they're a rarity.
My mother said she believes that we have much shorter springs and falls. Pretty much it's snow until May, or we have heat until November. We don't seem to have an even distribution of the seasons as much as it seems from a few decades ago. I also noticed that when summers seem colder than normal, hurricanes tend to strike the USA. I remember 2004 had a very cold summer here in NE Ohio, and we had disastrous landfalls. 2017 was a cool summer as well, and it was memorable with Harvey, Irma, and Nate. This summer here was pretty cool as well, and we have already had devastating landfalls. Do you believe there could be a correlation? 
Another thing I see much less of is severe weather. I remember in 1998 and 1999 having vicious severe thunderstorms in spring and summer. In April or May of 1998, we had a real tornado drill in school. It was terrifying. Infact, I remember looking at The Weather Channel for the local forecast during nasty thunderstorms and they'd be doing coverage of Hurricane Bonnie or Hurricane Georges and that's what began my hurricane interest. 
I seem to feel like we have much less severe weather here in the Northeastern Ohio area than we did in the 1990s. Any thoughts on pattern shifts?
 

I’m not educated enough to answer your questions. It so hard to make sense of the weather and patterns because recorded weather history is just a blip in the earths overall weather history. Some of the Mets who have a background in climate study are better educated than I am on the topic. All I can do is give you on the ground obs of this area. It certainly seems like there has been a change (warmer) in the weather. What might be the cause is for someone with more knowledge than me to decipher.


.

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1 hour ago, mempho said:

I do think that the fall and spring seasons seem highly delayed (and compressed) compared to what they used to be. The fall is the most noticeable because summer is hated where I live but I'm also aware that March and April have been below average as well.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

Agree. When I think of fall on western PA I think of varying between beautiful 60 degree days and random days in November that are cold with LES snow. The last ten years I really don’t remember falls like this, and I especially haven’t seen LES events in the fall at all.

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2 hours ago, yotaman said:

I heard 150 missing so far.

That might have a tendency to go up as people start getting back to their homes (or whatever is left) and wonder where their neighbors are.

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On 8/28/2020 at 8:45 AM, NJwx85 said:

 

Good find.  Way too many people making early, inaccurate calls on the storm surge. I made the following post on a non-weather board to refute the rabble rousers calling this storm a weak underperformer, based on flawed storm surge analysis.  Forgive the obvious details as it wasn't intended for this audience, but hopefully it gets the point across.  Heck, even seasoned meteorologists are making crappy claims about this, as per the article in the link (I commented on that one too).  The met who posted the article had no surge data from Cameron (11') to Vermillion Bay (11' - which was actually on the high side of their 8-12' prediction) 70 miles east - not having any data points where the worst surge would have been expected is very misleading  The NHC needs to publicize this issue a bit more to show that the forecast was damn good. 

https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2020/08/28/where-was-lauras-storm-surge/

The storm surge in the Cameron area, where the Laura made landfall, was "only" about 10 feet, but that's not a surprise, since the worst surge will usually be 10-20 miles or so east of the center of the storm, given the wind direction being generally east to west and not on-shore where Cameron was - east of there, the winds near and at landfall would've been largely out of the south, directly on-shore, bringing the worst surge.

The worst surge recorded to date was in Grand Chenier, about 15 miles east of Cameron, with a recording of 17 feet, which was right in line with the 15-20 foot predictions east of the storm's center. The reason Cameron and Lake Charles, inland, didn't get the worst surge was because Laura actually made landfall about 10-15 miles east of where it was forecast to make landfall right up until 5-6 hours before landfall.

If you look at the storm surge map, the 15-20 foot surge prediction started at Johnson Bayou, which is about where landfall was predicted, about 5 miles east of the TX/LA border - the landfall near Cameron was about 10-15 miles east of Johnson Bayou. That little jog east might've saved dozens of lives and many structures from Cameron to Lake Charles, as a 10 foot surge is obviously much less than a 20 foot one - and almost nobody lives east of Cameron for a ways in LA.

Even with only a 10 foot storm surge, the destruction in the video is pretty bad, although it should be noted that much of the construction was new, post-Rita and much of it stood up to 10-foot storm surge and 150 mph winds - pretty amazing. The houses that got swept off their foundations were more likely those not built on high enough stilts. 
 

 

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Based on location, that 154 mph gust is impressive as the sensor was measuring offshore sustained winds. I am highly suspicious the actual gust was part of a strong meso vortex as numerous similar high gusts have occurred unofficially around the landfalling eyewall. One of the best observations is still the ship anemometer nearing 10-second wind averages in the 130s. At any rate, all these instruments will be inspected. Too bad we didn't have a sensor east of Cameron.
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4 hours ago, Windspeed said:
4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:
 

Based on location, that 154 mph gust is impressive as the sensor was measuring offshore sustained winds. I am highly suspicious the actual gust was part of a strong meso vortex as numerous similar high gusts have occurred unofficially around the landfalling eyewall. One of the best observations is still the ship anemometer nearing 10-second wind averages in the 130s. At any rate, all these instruments will be inspected. Too bad we didn't have a sensor east of Cameron.

You have to remember the Lake Charles ASOS reporting 134 mph gust before it stopped reporting, and they were inland a good ways. Multiple other 140+ recorded there though, even if that particular gust was a meso vortex.

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9 hours ago, Windspeed said:
9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:
 

Based on location, that 154 mph gust is impressive as the sensor was measuring offshore sustained winds. I am highly suspicious the actual gust was part of a strong meso vortex as numerous similar high gusts have occurred unofficially around the landfalling eyewall. One of the best observations is still the ship anemometer nearing 10-second wind averages in the 130s. At any rate, all these instruments will be inspected. Too bad we didn't have a sensor east of Cameron.

At 33 feet/10 meters I’d find it believable, but I’m highly skeptical that there were gusts that high at an elevation of only 15 feet/4.5 meters.  I do know there were indeed numerous meso-vortices within the inner eyewall...so that may be a factor, as you pointed out.   

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Anyone have any idea when power will be restored to the Lake Charles area? Entergy still completely dark widespread across the whole area.

Wondering if anyone has heard/seen anything.

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2 hours ago, mimillman said:

Anyone have any idea when power will be restored to the Lake Charles area? Entergy still completely dark widespread across the whole area.

Wondering if anyone has heard/seen anything.

Most of what I've heard from people talking to the linemen and what I've heard from state and local officials is maybe another 3 to 4 weeks. I assume that's for total power restoration though, and for my sake, I hope that's their "worst case scenario" estimate. That said, I've heard "months" being thrown around as an answer too. After Rita, those living near critical infrastructure like hospitals were on the earlier side of estimates, while the more rural areas were without for a good bit longer. I also recall seeing something from Entergy stating that of the 5 high voltage transmission lines into the Lake Charles area that they own, all 5 are catastrophically damaged. Those obviously need repaired first, and apparently it takes three 18-wheelers to transport just one of the line structures.

I also saw this from the local news station this morning. "KPLC spoke with a rep from Entergy who said they have finished their evaluation of Calcasieu parish. There are 6500 poles that have been broken, 322 miles of wire that need to be replaced and 2890 transformers that were damaged."

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12 minutes ago, MoistWx said:

Most of what I've heard from people talking to the linemen and what I've heard from state and local officials is maybe another 3 to 4 weeks. I assume that's for total power restoration though, and for my sake, I hope that's their "worst case scenario" estimate. That said, I've heard "months" being thrown around as an answer too. After Rita, those living near critical infrastructure like hospitals were on the earlier side of estimates, while the more rural areas were without for a good bit longer. I also recall seeing something from Entergy stating that of the 5 high voltage transmission lines into the Lake Charles area that they own, all 5 are catastrophically damaged. Those obviously need repaired first, and apparently it takes three 18-wheelers to transport just one of the line structures.

I also saw this from the local news station this morning. "KPLC spoke with a rep from Entergy who said they have finished their evaluation of Calcasieu parish. There are 6500 poles that have been broken, 322 miles of wire that need to be replaced and 2890 transformers that were damaged."

Wow! That sounds overwhelming. Thank you for the information though!

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11 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Wow! That sounds overwhelming. Thank you for the information though!

I'm sure most people have seen some of the pictures by now, but honestly driving through and seeing the damage first hand is surreal. You drive in seeing progressively more and more trees snapped and buildings damaged, and then get to the city and a lot of it is nearly unrecognizable. Aside from the extensive power grid damage, probably every dwelling will need roof repairs or a new roof. Lot's of water damage that'll lead to mold in the buildings that weren't basically outright destroyed. My apartment seemed to make it out okay, but since it's an apartment, I'm limited with what mitigation I can do. No tarping, no generator, and no window A/C for me sadly. Meanwhile, my neighbor's apartment is basically stripped of all siding. Seeing what some of the others have gone through and are still going through though, I really can't complain too much.

What's crazy to me is a lot of people seem to have animosity because the "forecast was wrong," not realizing how lucky we got that the surge missed just to the east. Tossing surge into the city would have made this so much worse.

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3 minutes ago, MoistWx said:

I'm sure most people have seen some of the pictures by now, but honestly driving through and seeing the damage first hand is surreal. You drive in seeing progressively more and more trees snapped and buildings damaged, and then get to the city and a lot of it is nearly unrecognizable. Aside from the extensive power grid damage, probably every dwelling will need roof repairs or a new roof. Lot's of water damage that'll lead to mold in the buildings that weren't basically outright destroyed. My apartment seemed to make it out okay, but since it's an apartment, I'm limited with what mitigation I can do. No tarping, no generator, and no window A/C for me sadly. Meanwhile, my neighbor's apartment is basically stripped of all siding. Seeing what some of the others have gone through and are still going through though, I really can't complain too much.

What's crazy to me is a lot of people seem to have animosity because the "forecast was wrong," not realizing how lucky we got that the surge missed just to the east. Tossing surge into the city would have made this so much worse.

Wishing you and everyone down there the best. I couldn’t agree more. The wind was terrible enough. Surge on top of that would have been unimaginable.

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51 minutes ago, MoistWx said:

Most of what I've heard from people talking to the linemen and what I've heard from state and local officials is maybe another 3 to 4 weeks. I assume that's for total power restoration though, and for my sake, I hope that's their "worst case scenario" estimate. That said, I've heard "months" being thrown around as an answer too. After Rita, those living near critical infrastructure like hospitals were on the earlier side of estimates, while the more rural areas were without for a good bit longer. I also recall seeing something from Entergy stating that of the 5 high voltage transmission lines into the Lake Charles area that they own, all 5 are catastrophically damaged. Those obviously need repaired first, and apparently it takes three 18-wheelers to transport just one of the line structures.

I also saw this from the local news station this morning. "KPLC spoke with a rep from Entergy who said they have finished their evaluation of Calcasieu parish. There are 6500 poles that have been broken, 322 miles of wire that need to be replaced and 2890 transformers that were damaged."

Thanks. I had seen the same article from Entergy regarding the voltage transmission lines. Indeed some of the pictures of the power infrastructure there are very saddening.

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Meanwhile, Cameron and Calcasieu (Lake Charles) parishes are still at around 98% power outage. It’s just another reflection of the times that Laura fell out of the national headlines so quickly. As one resident put it “where’s the telethon?” 

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One question I have:. Why do people dismiss/downplay high wind readings because they are associated with mesovorticies? Are these not a part of the storm and this representative of sustained winds?  If a mesovort produces one minute sustained winds of 140 mph, is the storm not a 140 mph storm? Perhaps some pros can chime in

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2 hours ago, Normandy said:

One question I have:. Why do people dismiss/downplay high wind readings because they are associated with mesovorticies? Are these not a part of the storm and this representative of sustained winds?  If a mesovort produces one minute sustained winds of 140 mph, is the storm not a 140 mph storm? Perhaps some pros can chime in

If a mesovortex produces sustained winds of 140 mph, than it's a 140 mph storm.  However, meso-vortices are more likely to produce really fast instantaneous gusts, but not necessarily contribute a lot to the overall sustained winds.  So people are probably discounting instantaneous gusts as being part of meso-vortices.

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On 9/5/2020 at 2:21 PM, gymengineer said:

Meanwhile, Cameron and Calcasieu (Lake Charles) parishes are still at around 98% power outage. It’s just another reflection of the times that Laura fell out of the national headlines so quickly. As one resident put it “where’s the telethon?” 

US gets slammed by a truly high end cat 4 and people lose interest in 2 days because it missed extremely populated areas. Really sad that this kind of disaster gets buried in the news headlines simply due to where it hit. A remarkable storm and few outside those affected or the weather community will remember it 

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1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

US gets slammed by a truly high end cat 4 and people lose interest in 2 days because it missed extremely populated areas. Really sad that this kind of disaster gets buried in the news headlines simply due to where it hit. A remarkable storm and few outside those affected or the weather community will remember it 

The exact same thing happened with Michael because he missed landfalling directly at Panama City Beach by 15 miles, which would've practically destroyed the entirety of Bay County. 

My family near DeRidder lost their entire pecan crop and almost every tree, which were all replacements from Rita in 2005.

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are we really supposed to care about the victims of laura more than covid19 or trump?

i am sorry that the world is a busy place and lake charles has been forgotten, but it's predicatable af.

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