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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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25 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


zzz. people in cedar rapids, ia were without power for 2.5 weeks after the derecho.


.

Homes along the shorefront in Staten Island Tottenville were gone. Do not compare the derecho to Sandy, its not even close. Sandy obliterated homes from their foundation due to the surge.

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I hate to be the contrarian here, but he really does have some valid points, the observed winds are very often not as high as the category would suggest, especially once you get away from the deep tropics. There were a lot of research vehicles and some mobile dopplers covering Laura, I suspect that none of them will have measured 150mpg *sustained* winds. What a dropsonde or SFMR measures over the ocean almost always is never observed inland. Was this a cat 4 at landfall? Yes. But that does not mean that anywhere inland actually experienced winds that strong.

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Ya'll EXCUSE'S make mine hurt.. 

We went through this is 2018. Yet, you've never seemed to grasp the concept that advisories are given for in situ recon obs and ADT over water. Maximum Sustained Winds (which you should apparently repeat to yourself, "Maximum Sustained Winds occur over water, they do not occur over land"), is to define the highest possible sustained winds that could be experienced. It does not guarantee you will experience that wind speed. Now let's transition once again to describe conditions over land and inland vs over the ocean. Sustained winds over land will almost never be what they are over the ocean. Frictional effects and turbulence immediately transition to wind gusting for highest winds and the sustained characteristic of 1 min to 10 second wind drops considerably. You may find gusts that high, but you are not guaranteed based on position/location. Good luck trying to find the perfect spot in a forward quadrant of an eyewall with an instrument. You should go try it yourself.
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Just now, Cheeznado said:

I hate to be the contrarian here, but he really does have some valid points, the observed winds are very often not as high as the category would suggest, especially once you get away from the deep tropics. There were a lot of research vehicles and some mobile dopplers covering Laura, I suspect that none of them will have measured 150mpg *sustained* winds. What a dropsonde or SFMR measures over the ocean almost always is never observed inland. Was this a cat 4 at landfall? Yes. But that does not mean that anywhere inland actually experienced winds that strong.

Lol

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Just now, Cheeznado said:

I hate to be the contrarian here, but he really does have some valid points, the observed winds are very often not as high as the category would suggest, especially once you get away from the deep tropics. There were a lot of research vehicles and some mobile dopplers covering Laura, I suspect that none of them will have measured 150mpg *sustained* winds. What a dropsonde or SFMR measures over the ocean almost always is never observed inland. Was this a cat 4 at landfall? Yes. But that does not mean that anywhere inland actually experienced winds that strong.

Has to do with the echos decreasing as the cdo warmed, Michael didn't have cdo warming at least my memory. This was still a solid cat 4 . 

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2 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

Homes along the shorefront in Staten Island Tottenville were gone. Do not compare the derecho to Sandy, its not even close. Sandy obliterated homes from their foundation due to the surge.

Now imagine if sandy was a real hurricane

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3 minutes ago, jacindc said:

Hate to bring all this back to Laura, but here's a pretty classic post-storm shot.

 

three deaths so far.  wonder what happened to the 150 people in Cameron riding it out in mobile homes.

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7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Lol

 

6 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

Has to do with the echos decreasing as the cdo warmed, Michael didn't have cdo warming at least my memory. This was still a solid cat 4 . 

No, I suspect there is some sort of decoupling going on once a storm moves inland so the really strong winds stay just above the surface while over the ocean they are right at water level. I defy anyone here to show me any examples where *sustained* winds in any landfalling hurricane north of the latitude of Miami were measured as high as the advisory speed. Gusts, yes. Sustained, very rare.

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10 minutes ago, SENC said:

AND... Dear MOD,ALL due respect, I'll say it now, as I did then, EXCUSES WHERE THIS, Sensors FAILED...  Furthermore, that (area's) of Mexico beach was built to 1950/1960 Building codes.. NOT reinforced Rebar/Concrete, Homes built on SLABS, NO Anchors, NOR "hurricane Straps" in the Construction.. in 95% of those homes that got Wiped.. THAT is a fact.. Old building codes, = destruction..    

Yes this was almost as intense as Florence and Isaias... 

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Just now, Cheeznado said:

 

No, I suspect there is some sort of decoupling going on once a storm moves inland so the really strong winds stay just above the surface while over water they are right at water level. I defy anyone here to show me any examples where *sustained* winds in any landfalling hurricane north of the latitude of Miami were measured as high as the advisory speed. Gusts, yes. Sustained, very rare.

Yes it’s called friction

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7 minutes ago, SENC said:

I STILL stand behind said statement..  

Carry on..

As I've said, Long time reader & realist..

SS SCALE needs to be revised.. 

Do you have a doctorate in tropical meteorology you can share with us? Because all those guys with doctorates for decades have made the SS Scale how it is. Gee, we were lied to? :( 

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Just now, Cheeznado said:

 

No, I suspect there is some sort of decoupling going on once a storm moves inland so the really strong winds stay just above the surface while over water they are right at water level. I defy anyone here to show me any examples where *sustained* winds in any landfalling hurricane north of the latitude of Miami were measured as high as the advisory speed. Gusts, yes. Sustained, very rare.

An advisory intensity is specifically for marine exposure 1-min sustained wind in the ne eyewall. No other areas would get 150 sustained. Ground truth is always lacking from hurricane landfalls. 

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SENC’s rant kind of reminds me of some incoherent Alex Jones rant with random caps and emphasis.

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9 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Now imagine if sandy was a real hurricane

Roughly double the size and power of the Perfect Storm 1991 (Sandy was formed much the same way with mid latitude strong trough phasing into the hurricane) and force it NW into NJ. It hit at 946mb, that’s plenty hurricane enough for me. Only a few MB higher than Laura? 

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

An advisory intensity is specifically for marine exposure 1-min sustained wind in the ne eyewall. No other areas would get 150 sustained. Ground truth is always lacking from hurricane landfalls. 

The problem here is public perception and media coverage which implies that if hurricane x has y sustained winds the sustained winds are expected to be lot more widespread than one small spot right at the coast.  

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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Not sure if this one was shared yet...

cec1ce53975a94b439baf37a44b883a6.jpg


.

CHINSE construction

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

TS, maybe you can argue Cat 1 winds. 

No way.  Seabreeze at worst.  

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

TS, maybe you can argue Cat 1 winds. 

got me beat, was thinking upper end TD winds at best.

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Just now, Cheeznado said:

The problem here is public perception and media coverage which implies that if hurricane x has y sustained winds the sustained winds are expected to be lot more widespread than one small spot right at the coast.  

That small spot near the coast doesn't exist in a vacuum though. Generally the stronger that spot is the more widespread the lesser hurricane winds will be. I mean a cat 2 2 min sustained wind 25 nm in an offshore direction is an obvious indicator of an intense landfall.

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6 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

SENC’s rant kind of reminds me of some incoherent Alex Jones rant with random caps and emphasis.

His rant is hilarious. 

I'm not sure what Cat 2, 3, or 4 matters anyway as your picking up what's left of your life.  I seriously doubt anyone on the ground today is like, damn the NHC for over rating this thing!

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