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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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Getting to the point where we could see some frictional effects augment the storm a bit. E.g. a tightening of the eye + potentially stronger gusts start to mix down.

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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

NHC nailed this. Not to toot their horn but a lot of us, including myself, was leaning west. Even against substantial ensemble modeling that swung west closer to Galveston, they remained on point for SW LA. I was certain earlier that Port Arthur was in trouble. I mean they still are but not with respect to a direct strike. Cameron looks like ground zero and Lake Charles looks to be in trouble.

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Absolutely. God help anyone who stayed. Looks like no or very minimal weakening before landfall, satellite still looks classic. Wobble or two west but now nearly due N.

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Lake Charles Regional finally at sustained TS winds.

KLCH 270336Z AUTO 06034G53KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR FEW011 SCT022 OVC035 25/25 A2952 RMK AO2 PK WND 06053/0327 VIS 1 1/2V5 P0023 T02500250

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1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

Whelp, 938 again. Eesh.

New sonde?  Not showing up yet on my end.

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For what its worth, and this may be because it's Brownsville, the Hurricane Warnings in the areas closer to projected landfill now say to prepare for Cat 2 winds, 85-105 with gusts to 125. Earlier they had Cat 3 winds, 100-120 w/ gusts to 150. 85-105 is bad enough though. :(

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Just now, brianc33710 said:

For what its worth, and this may be because it's Brownsville, the Hurricane Warnings in the areas closer to projected landfill now say to prepare for Cat 2 winds, 85-105 with gusts to 125. Earlier they had Cat 3 winds, 100-120 w/ gusts to 150. 85-105 is bad enough though. :(

It has 150mph wind sustained and shows no sign of weakening. That's what that area is in for in addition to 20ft of water rise. Yeah.... 

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1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Newest drop is the most intense yet

recon_NOAA2-2413A-LAURA_dropsonde30_20200827-0252.png

Holy santa claus shit...

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i’m seeing a lot of 180+ mph velocities on radar both east and west side, plus occasionally 190+ mph readings that are more suspect. That’s up 15+ mph from a couple hours ago. Storm seems to still be strengthening as also seen on recon.

 

BF0BEE79-8C9D-46D2-B57B-346336E979B7.png

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 3:34Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300
Storm Number & Year: 13 in 2020
Storm Name: Laura (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 25
Observation Number: 14

A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 3:10:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29.10N 93.28W
B. Center Fix Location: 77 statute miles (124 km) to the S (183°) from Lake Charles, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,584m (8,478ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 938mb (27.70 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 106kts (122.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the SE (126°) of center fix at 3:04:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 219° at 130kts (From the SW at 149.6mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SE (125°) of center fix at 3:04:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 125kts (143.8mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the WNW (301°) of center fix at 3:13:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 35° at 117kts (From the NE at 134.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the WNW (300°) of center fix at 3:14:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 29°C (84°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,056m (10,026ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles

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Just now, jm1220 said:

It has 150mph wind sustained and shows no sign of weakening. That's what that area is in for in addition to 20ft of water rise. Yeah.... 

What are the gusts I’d imagine towards 200 mph in places just above the ground correct?

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6 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Newest drop is the most intense yet

recon_NOAA2-2413A-LAURA_dropsonde30_20200827-0252.png

I saw this and scared my wife a bit when I flinched. I hope that was a mesovorticy that was in. Yikes

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Just now, Kevin Reilly said:

What are the gusts I’d imagine towards 200 mph in places just above the ground correct?

Probably 170+. In Lake Charles in higher rise buildings maybe even higher. 

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Just now, jm1220 said:

It has 150mph wind sustained and shows no sign of weakening. That's what that area is in for in addition to 20ft of water rise. Yeah.... 

I didn't say I necessarily made sense. But the warned winds are lower than earlier this afternoon. I tried to move eastward but I see 80-100. Maybe I'm just searching the wrong place. I'm on my phone not my desktop. 

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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

I saw this and scared my wife a bit when I flinched. I hope that was a mesovorticy that was in. Yikes

So this was about an hour ago in the NW quad from the P3, just for reference.

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The good news is that there’s no datapoint for the surface on that sonde so we don’t know exactly how high that is. Sondes measure wind instantaneously so it may have caught a gust in a mesovort.

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Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

???

I didn't say this made sense. But where they had Cat 3 earlier they now have Cat 2. Who knows why they changed it. It doesn't seem sensible. 

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Just now, JasonOH said:

The good news is that there’s no datapoint for the surface on that sonde so we don’t know exactly how high that is. Sondes measure wind instantaneously so it may have caught a gust in a mesovort.

This is probably what happened.  Seems like there is a reasonable case for 125 kt as the current intensity based on the most recent AF mission.

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Someones gotta measure the winds for them to exist.   Every station goes down in a CAT3+.   There is no place 6ft above ground that will not go underwater in the direct path of this. I don't even know how you'd take a 6ft above ground wind measurement.

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1 minute ago, JasonOH said:

The good news is that there’s no datapoint for the surface on that sonde so we don’t know exactly how high that is. Sondes measure wind instantaneously so it may have caught a gust in a mesovort.

So... at the very minimum this 'sonde told us that Laura has gusts ~175-180mph. Welp.

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