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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Laura

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FrvYsaG.png

 

I don't think it has been officially declared yet, but with 70% odds now for development in 5 days, it's time to fire up a thread. 

A wave rolled off the coast of Africa this weekend and has slowly been detected by the guidance as a candidate for development in the central Atlantic.

I've been actually watching this one since last week, before the wave rolled off the African coast. The environment looks generally conducive for development, but the long range future remains uncertain. The current ensemble guidance shows a sprawling area of ridging across the Atlantic that could make this a long tracker. 

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48 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

Ecmwf mid range day 8 is out to lunch 

jma_z500a_watl_9.png Jma is more likely to verify.

 

42 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

Grave risk to south florida. I cannot stress it enough.

 

35 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

gfs-ens_z500a_watl_33.png

 

Gefs same. Ecmwf overdoing ecoast trough.

I think it’s still very early. Especially to be painting a narrow zone for a possible landfall.

What we do know from the guidance is that the ridging is legit, and will likely steer this westward. But it’s too early to know what troughing could weaken the ridge and force a potential turn northward, if there is even a turn. 

There’s still a question of what will happen with shear and land interaction. Intensity is very difficult to predict right now. 

This one has potential to be strong and get close to the US, but there is a lot to be resolved.

78810544.gif?0.9022116627290697

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I like the EC ENS presented above.  My first glance, and glad a thread was started... good call! I think recurvature,,, where?  Yes it could get buried south of Texas but either Laura or Marco appear to me to be a northward then northeast or east northeast recurvature,  whether east of W of FL unknown.  I've added GEFS 500MB members... and I can definitely see a portion of the Great Lakes trough separating southward by the 27th and at least allowing tropical moisture northward into the mid Atlantic, at a minimum of northward transport. Then the pattern accepted as is with 12z/17 EPS/GEFS, would sweep either remnants eastward into the Atlc.  BUT...as you say far-far too distant in the future to dwell on this.  I see Eric Blake has some interest in this as well.  It is a worthy monitor, in my estimation. NAEFS QPF is showing quite a bit along the mid Atlantic coasts 27-29th, with the Bermuda surface ridge (1016MB hanging in there) and nice 250 jet core over Northern New England-Nova Scotia. Orientation will change as will its latitude but  seems as if some sort of substantial qpf event is coming to a portion of the US Gulf or Altantic Coast by the middle of next week. Check the dates on the MREF members. 414P/17

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Screen Shot 2020-08-17 at 3.50.16 PM.png

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A short thread on why 98L might be the first system to encounter a generally favorable environment in the MDR and beyond this season. This started to reveal itself before the system came off of Africa, but is looking more pronounced now that we’re closer in time.

(Note: Hanna had a favorable Gulf environment)

 

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Is that entire thing 1 tropical wave? Because it looks like two large areas of storminess, but it’s only one invest obviously. What will happen to the other side in this situation? I guess it would be absorbed at some point, or the more developed side (if there is any) would ruin the less developed side, but I don’t know a ton about this.

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The EPS concentration of 98L tracks or its hypothetical TC just north of the Greater Antilles is a bit concerning. That would potentially place it somewhere under a favorable upper ridge riding the SW extension of the WAR through the Bahamas with far less land interaction. Obviously that could mean the threat of a stronger hurricane impact via SE CONUS to GOM. But, of course, as will be repeated many times, it's still very early. The ensembles could just as easily make for a stronger WAR extension over the next several days and pull out more of a Georges-type track or even a deeper Caribbean runner.

 

Should also point out that there is no guarantee the TC will track under the potential upper ridge at the right time to be enhanced. There will also be a TUTT or upper cutoff. But that feature might also be in a position to assist in ventilation downstream after initially imposing some shear as it does not look to retrograde but rather lock into place over the CATL. So another evolution to watch as our system advances westward.

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3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

 

I think it’s still very early. Especially to be painting a narrow zone for a possible landfall.

What we do know from the guidance is that the ridging is legit, and will likely steer this westward. But it’s too early to know what troughing could weaken the ridge and force a potential turn northward, if there is even a turn. 

There’s still a question of what will happen with shear and land interaction. Intensity is very difficult to predict right now. 

This one has potential to be strong and get close to the US, but there is a lot to be resolved.

78810544.gif?0.9022116627290697

Buttt I thought the Atlantic was dead till mid September because the long range GFS op wasn’t showing a storm 8 runs ago?!?

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2 hours ago, Rhino16 said:

Is that entire thing 1 tropical wave? Because it looks like two large areas of storminess, but it’s only one invest obviously. What will happen to the other side in this situation? I guess it would be absorbed at some point, or the more developed side (if there is any) would ruin the less developed side, but I don’t know a ton about this.

It is. There are two areas of vorticity but over time that should consolidate as (I believe) the western lobe of convection becomes dominant. Over time you will see the convection from the eastern lobe diminish and the larger vorticity in the wave consolidate. 

26 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Buttt I thought the Atlantic was dead till mid September because the long range GFS op wasn’t showing a storm 8 runs ago?!?

I’ll admit I thought we had another 2-3 weeks before business picked up but there may be more activity after these two invests. This season has been consistently active. Very few truly quiet periods, and now we’re nearing the peak...

10 minutes ago, Prospero said:

What kind of reputation do the NAVGEM models have?

image.thumb.png.532eb45c46c2808b221c4dec279882ee.png

Not good. 

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44 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It is. There are two areas of vorticity but over time that should consolidate as (I believe) the western lobe of convection becomes dominant. Over time you will see the convection from the eastern lobe diminish and the larger vorticity in the wave consolidate. 

I’ll admit I thought we had another 2-3 weeks before business picked up but there may be more activity after these two invests. This season has been consistently active. Very few truly quiet periods, and now we’re nearing the peak...

Not good. 

Yeah, our models here in the Navy are trash most of the time. Throw it out like bad leftovers. 

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6 hours ago, wizard021 said:

Grave risk to south florida. I cannot stress it enough.

People in South Florida already starting to stampede north in terror.

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6 hours ago, wizard021 said:

Grave risk to south florida. I cannot stress it enough.

Could you just not.

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This is likely to get real active real fast. while I am most impressed in the feature in the Atlantic as far as strongest intensity potential, the front runner in the Caribbean, slower to develop may be a gulf problem even as the other approaches, Another behind it too

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So much for the out-to-sea EURO. The 00Z Euro has the system striking the Keys and then Louisiana as a hurricane in 7- 8 days.  It also shows another Cape Verde hurricane plowing towards the Bahamas in that time as well.

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1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

So much for the out-to-sea EURO. The 00Z Euro has the system striking the Keys and then Louisiana as a hurricane in 7- 8 days.  It also shows another Cape Verde hurricane plowing towards the Bahamas in that time as well.

1006mb into LA is a hurricane?  Besides, the Euro barely has a reflection at 850mb vort... and its not even closed, its open as it grazes the southern Keys... it gets disrupted by Cuba

And the second is going to recurve north of the Bahamas

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98L kinda lost the organizational gains from yesterday in the western lobe of convection but the environment ahead still looks decent for development. 
What's it DOOOING, Precious?!

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18 hours ago, wizard021 said:

Grave risk to south florida. I cannot stress it enough.

Can you do us a favor and not post unless you have meaningful analysis and evidence to back up your claims. Thanks 

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