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Hurricane Marco


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Is it a case of too much of a good thing for these storms? All this talk about how the MJO phase would bring vertical motion favorable for convection to the Atlantic; is too much convection going up and preventing them from consolidating around one center for long? A bit like when too many storms go up and prevent each other from becoming long-track, cyclic tornadic supercells?

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21 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Is it a case of too much of a good thing for these storms? All this talk about how the MJO phase would bring vertical motion favorable for convection to the Atlantic; is too much convection going up and preventing them from consolidating around one center for long? A bit like when too many storms go up and prevent each other from becoming long-track, cyclic tornadic supercells?

JB says  it  isnt in a favorable state except for very  in close development like ike and  hanna did  just  before  landfall. He says we are  in phase 8/1 but the favorable  phases are  coming.

 

2 days ago but still in the same  phase.

 

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21 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Is it a case of too much of a good thing for these storms? All this talk about how the MJO phase would bring vertical motion favorable for convection to the Atlantic; is too much convection going up and preventing them from consolidating around one center for long? A bit like when too many storms go up and prevent each other from becoming long-track, cyclic tornadic supercells?

This is what I have been hypothesizing.  Conditions are *so* favorable, somehow it has the reverse effect?   All global oscillations and patterns vary in magnitude and interact in many ways.  Who's to say there can not be a combination where "too much of a good thing" occurs?  Some unexpected side-effect of the record or near record large-scale indicators that the Atlantic has had early on stating it should be very favorable for TC activity?  Yes, we got a lot of NS so far, but where is the quality (intensity)?  The SAL has been rather strong this year, and it is still evident in the MDR (it wiped out completely the most recent AEW that looked impressive when first coming off land).  Typically the SAL wanes by mid-August.  What if it continues another few weeks?  That may seriously impact TC potential in the MDR.

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2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

JB says  it  isnt in a favorable state except for very  in close development like ike and  hanna did  just  before  landfall. He says we are  in phase 8/1 but the favorable  phases are  coming.

 

2 days ago but still in the same  phase.

 

 

When is the last time JB was right about anything? I listen to him like I listen to the old farmer's almanac.

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I don;t know if it's the prolonged lack/reduction of aircraft data across the CONUS or for that matter across the Atlantic, but the models have been off the past 4 or 5 months more than usual, especially forecasting upper level features, which usually the globals have a general agreement inside 120 hours.  I know up where I'm at they've been s#%t outside 48 hours.  I think someone whose across the pond posted in one of the threads they've been crap over there also.  I posted Thursday that the next 7 days were going to be a challenge simply because what the models were spitting out I've never seen.  Also none of them were consistent with upper CONUS features earlier in the week, not even focusing on the potential storms themselves at the time.  Just habit from when I lived in the Clearwater area for 11 years and whenever I saw models pushing something into the GOM the first thing I looked at was what the forecast was over the CONUS.  I do like tracking weaker storms because I think there's a lot to be learned there.  I've seen storms do crazy things in 30 years so no matter how good the models have gotten anything they spit out comes with some suspicion, but this year has been kinda nuts.  Maybe its like Vortex95 said, too much of a good thing lol. I know one thing, when the CMC is running a tight race over time on verification scores with the big boy's somethings up.  :weenie:

Edit: Sorry thought I was in the 2020 Hurricane season thread :wacko:

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21 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

I said 985 I was close.  But hey what do I know .

 

1 hour ago, wizard021 said:

Quickly intensifying now looks to me.

 

44 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

Please tell me not to be rude what I am missing.

How do you not have a weenie tag? 
 

anyway, dropsonde measured 999 MB with a 64 knot splashdown wind. Probably enough to upgrade to 65 knot cane with pressure is the low 990s. (1 MB reduction per 10 knots).

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Marco is definitely going to struggle. Good slab of dry air to it's nw and the shear which is backing off a bit however will ramp up again as it approaches shore. These small tropical systems are so temperamental. They can easily rapidly intensify but also equally rapidly weaken. I think we may see it hit minimal hurricane status like NHC is forecasting. Some hot towers attempting but nothing has been sustained too long. 

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Marco's problem remains mid-to-upper level SSW flow along forecast track. Plenty of stable Theta-E that will continuously be advecting into Marco's small vortex. It may not be powerful enough to decapitate the MLC from the LLC. Marco may be able to temporarily battle with reoccurring mesos that rotate upshear around the main circulation. But the flow is strong enough to keep Marco's intensity in check and prevent convective expansion around the western CDO. This is not terribly unlike Nate in 2017. Though Nate had a larger circulation to tap heat flux. Marco might gain hurricane intensity briefly depending on when recon is in there to find supportive obs. But I'd imagine it will struggle at borderline upper TS/Cat 1 intensity all the way into landfall. Levi Cowan had a great explanation of Marco's struggle within this environment in his video last night.

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4 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Marco's problem remains mid-to-upper level SSW flow along forecast track. Plenty of stable Theta-E that will continuously be advecting into Marco's small vortex. It may not be powerful enough to decapitate the MLC from the LLC. Marco may be able to temporarily battle with reoccurring mesos that rotate upshear around the main circulation. But the flow is strong enough to keep Marco's intensity in check and prevent convective expansion around the western CDO. This is not terribly unlike Nate in 2017. Though Nate had a larger circulation to tap heat flux. Marco might gain hurricane intensity briefly depending on when recon is in there to find supportive obs. But I'd imagine it will struggle at borderline upper TS/Cat 1 intensity all the way into landfall. Levi Cowan had a great explanation of Marco's struggle within this environment in his video last night.

Couldn't have said it better myself. Excellent analysis 

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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=uv200 the wind direction at 200 is southerly and in the same dir the storm is moving . This shows shear is in a favorable direction . The only detriment is speed shear . Cat 1 into Louisiana is a solid forecast.  I expect continued up and downs in intensity as recon has showed so far. 

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1 hour ago, wizard021 said:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=uv200 the wind direction at 200 is southerly and in the same dir the storm is moving . This shows shear is in a favorable direction . The only detriment is speed shear . Cat 1 into Louisiana is a solid forecast.  I expect continued up and downs in intensity as recon has showed so far. 

 

 

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Not sure if its the small size or the bathwater under it (or both) but I have never seen a tropical storm fight off fairly stout shear with contentious strong convection in the center as well as Marco has thus far.  I have been waiting for the convection to die for over 24 hours near the center, but it just keeps firing.  The shear is going to start waning as Marco moves north too.  I would keep a steady eye on it if I was in southern LA and New Orleans.

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This is a hurricane per the latest VDM. We’ll see if that’s enough for the NHC. Tiny 4 NM wide eye.
 
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 15:50Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301 
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2020
Storm Name: Marco (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 24 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 15:16:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.84N 87.38W
B. Center Fix Location: 352 statute miles (567 km) to the W (273°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,372m (4,501ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 995mb (29.39 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 290° at 27kts (From the WNW at 31mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the east
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 4 nautical miles
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 64kts (73.6mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles to the SW (227°) of center fix at 15:15:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 315° at 56kts (From the NW at 64.4mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 1 nautical miles to the SW (222°) of center fix at 15:15:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 69kts (79.4mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the E (100°) of center fix at 15:22:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 181° at 70kts (From the S at 80.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the E (100°) of center fix at 15:22:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,494m (4,902ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,425m (4,675ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the E (100°) from the flight level center at 15:22:30Z  

If they deem it a cane wouldn’t they do a special update before then?


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