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Possible FF, Iso SVR NJ-LI Noon WED 8/12-Noon FRI 8/14


wdrag
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Not completely done:  I think i found one 4.1" two- day total in Manchester Township NJ, w of Toms River in Ocean County-via wx underground.  It had 2.81 for two days but had to correct 1 day down because it baselined too high.  Otherwise, I added a map of flood and heavy rain reports from this morning-midday. No overwhelming flooding but the short duration RW+ this morning into midday across the I95 corridor was significant for some of us.  

I anticipate pin head heavy showers along I95 tonight, but the bigger deal of spotty 1-3" rains should be developing between 2AM and Noon Friday near I78 or just south of I78. Am focused on vicinity JFK-Middlesex-Monmouth to maybe Somerset-Mercer counties for nearly stationary heavy showers developing overnight in a still moist unstable environment with very little steering aloft --driven by model anticipated low level convergence along the s coast of LI (subtle convergence between easterly flow directions into Raritan Bay. Showers probably will be concentrated at the nose of this possible convergence zone. Several models imply some sort of shower activity and knowing what has happened in this summer low top convective environment, it won't surprise me to see a bunch of heavy showers on-going somewhere between I78 and I195 when we get up tomorrow morning.  All of this should subside midday Friday.

So I could be wrong-my confidence on this occurring is around 60%.

Am not planning to extend any heavy convective forecast beyond Noon Friday.  759P/13

Screen Shot 2020-08-13 at 7.37.34 PM.png

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19 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Not completely done:  I think i found one 4.1" two- day total in Manchester Township NJ, w of Toms River in Ocean County-via wx underground.  It had 2.81 for two days but had to correct 1 day down because it baselined too high.  Otherwise, I added a map of flood and heavy rain reports from this morning-midday. No overwhelming flooding but the short duration RW+ this morning into midday across the I95 corridor was significant for some of us.  

I anticipate pin head heavy showers along I95 tonight, but the bigger deal of spotty 1-3" rains should be developing between 2AM and Noon Friday near I78 or just south of I78. Am focused on vicinity JFK-Middlesex-Monmouth to maybe Somerset-Mercer counties for nearly stationary heavy showers developing overnight in a still moist unstable environment with very little steering aloft --driven by model anticipated low level convergence along the s coast of LI (subtle convergence between easterly flow directions into Raritan Bay. Showers probably will be concentrated at the nose of this possible convergence zone. Several models imply some sort of shower activity and knowing what has happened in this summer low top convective environment, it won't surprise me to see a bunch of heavy showers on-going somewhere between I78 and I195 when we get up tomorrow morning.  All of this should subside midday Friday.

So I could be wrong-my confidence on this occurring is around 60%.

Am not planning to extend any heavy convective forecast beyond Noon Friday.  759P/13

Screen Shot 2020-08-13 at 7.37.34 PM.png

Any thoughts on Saturday night thru early Monday?? Seems like there is some model disagreement.

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On 8/13/2020 at 8:20 PM, Rtd208 said:

Any thoughts on Saturday night thru early Monday?? Seems like there is some model disagreement.

GEFS is 1+ and increasing nw of I95,  EPS about 0.3" and NAEFS 1/2"+ with lots of variability. Should rain sometime Sunday afternoon-night.  Too early for me to get energized when this seemingly benign stuff is so challenging the next 12-15 hours. 

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Adding just a little more info on yesterday, 48 hour combined.  Will reedit with HPRCC to show pocket-convective band  oriented all the rainfall of the past week, most of that rain Monday-Tuesday. It's not highly accurate but offers an idea of the above normal and below normal areas in the past few days. 

3+ report, in addition to the one 4+ posted yesterday.   1052A/14


 ...Somerset County...
 0.6 E Belle Mead             3.49 in   0600 PM 08/13   IFLOWS               
 3 W Kendall Park             2.32 in   1100 AM 08/13   Public               
 

Screen Shot 2020-08-14 at 1.38.41 PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-08-14 at 1.39.16 PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-08-14 at 1.41.00 PM.png

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