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August 10 Severe Weather


Chicago Storm
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This complex is just incredible in terms of impacts. Along with your standard convective element, you've got High Wind Warnings for the trailing meso-low, and now: Lakeshore Flood Warning posted via GRR due to an increased risk of seiche/meteotsunami along the Van Buren County shoreline of Lake MI. 

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5 minutes ago, Powerball said:

FWIW, this was the original Day 1 outlook...

image.thumb.png.7645975f498db94a34c394ceef08433c.png

Absolutely terrible job especially in light of an ongoing MCS at the time and mesoscale models showing the potential for a derecho well north of the slight. But then again look at who did the outlook for why it was so terrible.

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13 minutes ago, mjwise said:

The 0z operational HRRR notches the win on this one, easily the closest of the hi res models last night. The rest missed the boat almost entirely.

HRRR and HRRRx did well, as did the RPM (IBM/WSI's ARW), IBM GRAF and the hi-res Canadian (HRDPS).

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30 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Absolutely terrible job especially in light of an ongoing MCS at the time and mesoscale models showing the potential for a derecho well north of the slight. But then again look at who did the outlook for why it was so terrible.

I don't know enough about Darrow/Squitieri to be familiar with their biases. Broyles would have nailed it, but he enhanced/moderates anything that any of the CAMs lights up.

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1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I don't know enough about Darrow/Squitieri to be familiar with their biases. Broyles would have nailed it, but he enhanced/moderates anything that any of the CAMs lights up.

I don't know about Squitieri, I think he might be an intern or new, but Darrow is the king of the "I don't know/uncertainty" forecast. Never ever goes out on a limb on anything.

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Watches farther east sound like they are coming.

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 Mesoscale Discussion 1461
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0517 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

   Areas affected...southern lower Michigan...Indiana...southern
   Illinois...east-central Missouri...northern Kentucky...and western
   Ohio

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428...429...

   Valid 102217Z - 110015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428, 429
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Widespread damaging wind gusts will continue across WW 428
   and 429, and eventually will spread into adjacent/downstream areas. 
   One or more new WW issuances may be needed to cover the fast-moving
   threat.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a well-defined bowing MCS
   moving quickly eastward/southeastward at 40 to 45 kt across the
   Midwest, with the main convective line now east of Chicago, and
   moving toward Grand Rapids/Indianapolis/St. Louis.  

   While moderate instability remains just downstream of the
   convection, which will allow storms to remain intense over the next
   hour, instability lessens with eastward and southeastward extent
   east of the existing watches.  Still, given the very well-organized
   nature of this convective system, an organized/bowing band is likely
   to continue east and southeast of the existing watches.  While
   severe risk should begin to diminish/become more isolated this
   evening, a new WW issuance -- into eastern lower Michigan and
   western Ohio, may be required.  Some risk may also spread southeast
   of the existing watches across the Ohio River into northern Kentucky
   as well --- which could also require WW consideration.

   ..Goss.. 08/10/2020

 

mcd1461.gif

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Tornado warning west of Fort Wayne.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
641 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southern Elkhart County in north central Indiana...
  Southeastern St. Joseph County in north central Indiana...
  Northeastern Kosciusko County in north central Indiana...

* Until 700 PM EDT.

* At 640 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Wakarusa, or near Nappanee, moving east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Milford and New Paris around 650 PM EDT.
  Goshen around 655 PM EDT.
  Syracuse and Millersburg around 700 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Southwest, Foraker, Gravelton, Locke, Benton, Oakwood Park and
Waterford Mills.

 

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2 hours ago, Calderon said:

So, for the Chicagoland area today: rampant looting in the early morning, then a large factory fire near O' Hare, now tornado warning with 80+mph winds. 2020 is wild, today, even wilder. 

Haha post of the day! I actually had multiple zoom meetings delayed because some executives were concerned for their safety downtown, and then we had to move it up because this land-icane was heading for them. August 11th is going to be a day you wanna buy a newspaper for safe keeping

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Tornado warning for Fort Wayne.

Quote

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
711 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Allen County in northeastern Indiana...
  Southern Whitley County in northeastern Indiana...
  Northern Huntington County in northeastern Indiana...

* Until 745 PM EDT.

* At 711 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 7 miles south of Columbia City, moving east at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  New Haven around 740 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Laud,
Nine Mile, Yoder, Dunfee, Poe, Aboite, Goblesville, Hessen Cassel,
Roanoke and Coesse.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 469 between mile markers 0 and 17, and between mile
markers 23 and 30.
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 296 and 314.

 

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