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Hurricane Isaias


wxeyeNH
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I don't think comparisons to previous events is really justifiable. Each setup is rather unique. If you're looking to compare you would have to find a previous event in which the synoptics match quite well (this is extremely important in this situation given the role the ULJ is playing here) and find some similarities within the mesoscale...such as the profile of the lower atmosphere. How many events like this do we see in which an inversion is very weak or even non-existent (though I don't think you can use non-existent b/c there has to be some sort of inversion involved) and how many tropical systems give us the tornado threat we have...at the end of the day the TOR threat is probably the biggest out of any threat. The damaging wind threat can't be overlooked either...yes 50-60 knots may not sound "exciting" but winds of that magnitude over a widespread area with fully leaved trees is going to cause issues...don't be fooled about the "fast" nature or "brief" period of these winds...in fact, winds can be maximized when the forward speed of a system is very fast (one of the culprits which made the 38 hurricane damage even worse). 

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Seeing how there are no tornado warnings currently to the southwest I suppose is a good thing. Anyways, velocites are ripping looking at DIX

Yeah...I've been talking about this, this morning...even annotated a chart to help demo/illustrate the reasoning - not sure it is being seen or acknowledged...

But the warned cells this morning - in my assessment - do not appear to be borne of the TC mechanics ... Those cells were IB generated as the environmental flow out ahead of the TC is SSW and is lifting over a frontalysis that is lingering over the region along the Mass Pike... When those cells speed bumped over the boundary interface, they likely closed off their updrafts briefly because of the shear profiles along that axis.   

Just sayn'

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

John Earthlight

 

wow!

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah...I've been talking about this, this morning...even annotated a chart to help demo/illustrate the reasoning - not sure it is being seen or acknowledged...

But the warned cells this morning - in my assessment - do not appear to be borne of the TC mechanics ... Those cells were IB generated as the environmental flow out ahead of the TC is SSW and is lifting over a frontalysis that is lingering over the region along the Mass Pike... When those cells speed bumped over the boundary interface, they likely closed off their updrafts briefly because of the shear profiles along that axis.   

Just sayn'

ahh yes i do recall seeing that post. Was going to respond but got side tracked. Interesting observation and makes alot of sense I think. 

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Totally get the feeling people in general all around are writing this off as meh. Hopefully it is but ....

I think people are expecting this to be like an all day event of craziness and damage...it's really only a several hour window of hell...calm before, then hell, then a gradual decline, then quickly back to calm

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As a severe weather enthusiast I hope I get a direct impact before the season ends.

As someone who lives here though, I really don't want to have to deal with no power for an extended period of time, which is exactly what would happen during such an occasion.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think these early tor warned cells are more associated with convection running up and over the top of the book-end frontal boundary that was, as of 13:31 still draiped west to east ...sort of "frontalysis" in nature ..through the area.  They were potent with high end DBZ ongoing ... but waited/rather suddenly tripped tor warning when they were roughly between the Pike and Rt 2

image.thumb.png.2a5448f16f57ac16765aba6f455780d1.png

And below this residual boundary the skies are brightening like a proper warm sector would...  

There's some quasi behavior though - this TC is going to be "latching" onto these frontal structure as it natively acquires more and more transitioning to baroclinic physics, and you can kinda .. sorta see how it becomes "like" a standard cyclone and that frontal fragment over SNE would become the warm frontal arm??   

Well, warm fronts have nearly ideal helicity profiles... and those cells speed bumping over that shear profile might have caused their updrafts to close off

 

Just a hypothesis... Because for one, they are too far removed from the TC to really be part of it's specific forcing. 

You didn't ask...I'm just offering up this analysis to everyone and using your post as a launch :) 

Always love reading your analysis, even if half of it goes over my head. Reminds me of sitting in a higher level lecture in college. While at Millersville University, I took a few Met courses which allowed me to sit in on Eric Horst and Dr. John Scala's weather discussions. I miss those days...

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5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Always love reading your analysis, even if half of it goes over my head. Reminds me of sitting in a higher level lecture in college. While at Millersville University, I took a few Met courses which allowed me to sit in on Eric Horst and Dr. John Scala's weather discussions. I miss those days...

Currently a Met major at Millersville myself, Horst is a local legend. Knows his stuff very well.

Back on topic, will be exciting to read through this sub-forum later. Hoping y'all have fun.

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