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Hurricane Isaias


wxeyeNH
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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Not sure why SPC did srn ct now? That is for later when those arc of cells swing through. If anything you could argue western CT and NY state might need one currently. 

Because these are Americans, and no amount of lead time is sufficient to enlighten beef-wits as to an apparent risk.   Plus, more time is better to defend against all the others, hordes of litigates. 

That's why...  In an ideal world, they tell everyone an hour before your arc arrives, ...people en masse take a 30 minute time out, then emerge unscathed ... understanding that damage to property is otherwise a part of a dynamic planet.   Clean up where necessary ... rejoice dodging the bullet elsewhere, and everyone sings Kumbaya.  

 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

LLJ going across Delmarva right now so we’ll see what SBY to GEO reports in the next hour. 

What do you think the prospects are for the potential of a strong tornado? I know they're exceedingly rare with tropical cyclones...and we know how rare strong tornadoes are in New England, but with the LLJ ramping up like that and about to overlap where 3km CAPE values are approaching 200 J/KG and given the size of the hodographs...I have to think it's a possibility. Perhaps the limiting factor is we aren't using a larger portion of the troposphere...would probably need some really deep convection but you get a discrete cell ahead of this stuff...there's an awful lot to utilize. 

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Are we thinking just a 2-3hr window of strong TS related winds but otherwise more damage possible for severe threats?

Yeah I would say perhaps a 3-4 hour window of the strongest winds...but I wouldn't let that fool you. That's still a relatively large period when you factor in the trees are fully leaved. My concern is we see what 50-60 mph gusts do during t'storms when those winds are rather brief. What would an extended period do? 

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

LLJ going across Delmarva right now so we’ll see what SBY to GEO reports in the next hour. 

You know ...I'm kinda coveting a private experiment through this synoptic cinema.

I'm still secretly unconvinced this thing doesn't elevate much of it's impact potential ... I joked and referred to it as a 'see-thru frisbie' a couple nights ago.  

But I'm holding back because the Euro solution from last night - however - hearkened somewhat to Ryan H'.s salient tweet about the jet structures potentially coupling with the vestigial mechanics. This most recent run seems to have additional isobars (along standard intervals) added as it is absorbing into the large cyclonic envelopment over the N OV...and it's difficult to see that as being tropical in nature for what is forcing that, once this thing is passing NYC's ~ latitude.  It seems it is getting an assist in "re" or depth maintenance as it accelerates N of the Del Marva here during the afternoon - going by the 00z run... I don't see another reason for that ... 

If it wasn't for that, this would probably decouple from the lower troposphere below a weakening threshold and pressure pattern normalizing below restoration's ability to overcome the BL resistance much more than 10 mi inland from the coast(s).  And it'd be TS warning with 20mph breezes and heavily tilted Bahama towers..

So...what is fascinating here is that this may end up producing a synoptic wind pulse from that idiosyncrasy alone, but not "really" be a TC at that time.   Here's a forecast,  cloudy with a 90% chance of misconception of what is really being experienced, in lieu of this din of oohs and ahs ...where if you try to cut in and explain the truth, everyone blink twice, turns around and re-engages the oohs and ahs..

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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What do you think the prospects are for the potential of a strong tornado? I know they're exceedingly rare with tropical cyclones...and we know how rare strong tornadoes are in New England, but with the LLJ ramping up like that and about to overlap where 3km CAPE values are approaching 200 J/KG and given the size of the hodographs...I have to think it's a possibility. Perhaps the limiting factor is we aren't using a larger portion of the troposphere...would probably need some really deep convection but you get a discrete cell ahead of this stuff...there's an awful lot to utilize. 

Given the winds aloft, I’d think EF2 is possible for sure. Low topped supercells can produce but as you know it’s harder. But the wind and shear is there to tighten up one of these guys.

 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know ...I'm kinda coveting a private experiment through this synoptic cinema.

I'm still secretly unconvinced this thing doesn't elevate much of it's impact potential ... I joked and referred to it as a 'see-thru frisbie' a couple nights ago.  

But I'm holding back because the Euro solution from last night - however - hearkened somewhat to Ryan H'.s salient tweet about the jet structures potentially coupling with the vestigial mechanics. Thus recent runs seems to have additional isobars (along standard intervals) and it's difficult to see that as being tropical in nature once this thing is passing NYC's ~ latitude.  It seems it is getting an assist in "re" or depth maintenance as it accelerates N of the Del Marva here during the afternoon - going by the 00z run... I don't see another reason for that ... 

If it wasn't for that, this would probably decouple from the lower troposphere below a weakening threshold and pressure pattern normalizing below restoration's ability to overcome the BL resistance much more than 10 mi inland from the coast(s). 

So...what is fascinating here is that this may end up producing a synoptic wind pulse from that idiosyncrasy alone, but not "really" be a TC at that time.   Here's a forecast,  cloudy with a 90% chance of misconception of event burying what really took place beneath of din of oohs and ahs.

Tip going big.. 

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea Watch Hill Lighthouse would be my pick for an observation area. If Hunchie had gone to the Andrea he wouldn't have a beach to lay on as the tide should be up to the dunes. Full moon goon

My folks are out on the island. I've demanded pics/vids later, as it will be a good show on the water. 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah I would say perhaps a 3-4 hour window of the strongest winds...but I wouldn't let that fool you. That's still a relatively large period when you factor in the trees are fully leaved. My concern is we see what 50-60 mph gusts do during t'storms when those winds are rather brief. What would an extended period do? 

I’m not letting anything fool me. Simply trying to time my day so I get my kids out of daycare beforehand. There are more important matters, for some, then getting a stiffy over damage. 

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