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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Isaías

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wooo Tropical Storm Warning!

 

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Probably won't get gusts to 100 lol, but the wind for y'all will be legit. There is a strong jet that is very well aligned for the east coast. This will likely maintain intensity and structure up the coast. People will poo poo the wind threat, but this is an anomalous setup. Now that doesn't mean that everyone sees gusts to 60, but TS force winds over a wide swath at this latitude is uncommon. 

I don't see a lot of bust potential with the wind. The meteorology is sound. 

Quote
After landfall, Isaias is forecast to only slowly weaken due to 
interaction with an unusually strong winter-type jetstream that will 
be possessing winds of 100-120 kt. Expected strong baroclinic 
forcing will keep Isaias' circulation intact and also produce very 
strong wind gusts along the Mid-Atlantic states tomorrow. As a 
result, the gust factors at 24-48 h have been increased above the 
standard 20 percent in the Forecast/Advisory (TCMAT4).

osrpp6r.png

 

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Haha My goodness how long has it been? Irene?

I have no idea lol

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Not enthused at all west of 95 for significant rain. Was hoping we could get this to nudge a little more west today but that doesn’t look like it’s going to happen.

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11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Probably won't get gusts to 100 lol, but the wind for y'all will be legit. There is a strong jet that is very well aligned for the east coast. This will likely maintain intensity and structure up the coast. People will poo poo the wind threat, but this is an anomalous setup. Now that doesn't mean that everyone sees gusts to 60, but TS force winds over a wide swath at this latitude is uncommon. 

I don't see a lot of bust potential with the wind. The meteorology is sound. 

osrpp6r.png

 

That’s a pretty impressive map! Wasn’t expecting to see 50% around DC.

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Congratulations, Mid Atlantic Region! Solid heavy rainfall and strong, possibly damaging wind gusts are in order for you.

I'll be keeping a weather eye on my old 'hood especially tomorrow.

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21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Haha My goodness how long has it been? Irene?

Last time Dale City Va had strong wind gusts was probably about the March 1-2 2018 timeframe. I remember it because I was still up there.

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GFS looks solid for 95 corridor. 3-6”. Has a pretty healthy amount of rain this evening. 

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1 minute ago, Jebman said:

Last time Dale City Va had strong wind gusts was probably about the March 1-2 2018 timeframe. I remember it because I was still up there.

Well yeah, we can't forget the windstorm of 2018, lol It was one of the most frustrating (because it the main storm completely missed us) yet awesome (because of the anomalous wind) events we've ever had here!

But I was actually referring to when we last had a tropical storm warning.

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well yeah, we can't forget the windstorm of 2018, lol It was one of the most frustrating (because it the main storm completely missed us) yet awesome (because of the anomalous wind) events we've ever had here!

But I was actually referring to when we last had a tropical storm warning.

Irene in 2011

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GFS is a nice hit, would argue that even some spots in the immediate DC - Balt. region get some training.

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10 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Last time Dale City Va had strong wind gusts was probably about the March 1-2 2018 timeframe. I remember it because I was still up there.

Dale City looks to get incredible rain and tropical storm force winds with this one. 

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24 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Congratulations, Mid Atlantic Region! Solid heavy rainfall and strong, possibly damaging wind gusts are in order for you.

I'll be keeping a weather eye on my old 'hood especially tomorrow.

I’ll plan a Tuesday morning Tropical Jebwalk in your honor  :lol:

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22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS looks solid for 95 corridor. 3-6”. Has a pretty healthy amount of rain this evening. 

Probably more realistic on gusts.  ~40-45 mph in the 95 corridor.

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Just now, MN Transplant said:

Probably more realistic on gusts.  ~40-45 mph in the 95 corridor.

How does the bay fair? To me if they are 70+ this is legit even in DC.

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i do not know how @WxWatcher007 deals with the weenies in the main thread. someone is saying its going to be a cat2 at landfall

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Just now, mappy said:

i do not know how @WxWatcher007 deals with the weenies in the main thread. someone is saying its going to be a cat2 at landfall

That would have some implications up this way for sure.

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