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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Isaías

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Those euro wind gusts seem way, way overdone. I may end up wrong but gust near 100 on the coast? And 90’s in the middle of the bay?Can’t see that.

Yeah, ain’t happening unless it’s a cane up the coast

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3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Meh for rainfall on the 12z 3k, my yard is gonna be brown within 5 days 

Thats 3+ inches of rain verbatim.

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah the 3k now actually looks similar to the globals wrt location of the axis of heavier rainfall.

Gives the I 81 corridor less than .50

I'll get my sprinklers going today lol.

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Alan Huffman's iteration of the HRRR is bone dry west of I-95. Less than 2". Slams Harford County up through Philly...close to 9" of rain.

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Just now, Chris78 said:

Gives the I 81 corridor less than .50

I'll get my sprinklers going today lol.

yeah..not a good trend for us.  Hooping for some training convection this eve/night that models aren't going to pin down right now.  The meat and potatoes of the storm tomorrow is slipping east and we were on the edge to begin with.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Alan Huffman's iteration of the HRRR is bone dry west of I-95. Less than 2". Slams Harford County up through Philly...close to 9" of rain.

I know you know this- but the HRRR is generally not very useful beyond a few hours from initialization. Even then is shifts around run to run.

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6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Thats 3+ inches of rain verbatim.

There’s some yellow tinting in the rain QPF, that looks like some isolated 9-10” in some spots west of bay no?

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Per LWX AFD, it looks like tropical watches and warnings are getting bumped west shortly.

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1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

There’s some yellow tinting in the rain QPF, that looks like some isolated 9-10” in some spots west of bay no?

Looks like some localized 8"+ amounts on the 3km NAM.

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I know you know this- but the HRRR is generally not very useful beyond a few hours from initialization. Even then is shifts around run to run.

Yea, I gotta keep reminding myself to not look at meso models past 12 to 18 hours out.

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when does radar watching begin?

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looks like some localized 8"+ amounts on the 3km NAM.

Yeah, nothing to sneeze at looking at Pivotal maps.  5-7" for 95 and points east with higher localized amounts like you said.

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Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

When does it ever stop :arrowhead:

...in winter...

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I thought we were supposed to ignore the NAM with tropical. Are we far enough removed from landfall up here that that does not hold? Would love to understand better the issues. 

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HREF is 5" - 7" west of the bay to US 15. Has some 7" - 10" lollies in Fairfax and Charles County.

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whether it's moderate rains vs inner bands/flooding, still cool to have something different to track than the usual tstorm outbreak. kinda interested in the early evening timeframe as well with that initial line of showers/storms the models are depicting.

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This will be a significant event for many and ANY rains are welcome. Stop worrying about run to run shifts. The storm itself is all over the place

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2 hours ago, Subtropics said:

Is there anywhere on the western shore of the Bay that would allow a non-resident to park and get close to the water? All the Calvert county "beaches" are closed to non county residents due to covid, or they close after dark anyway. 

Ideally I drive to the bay (west side), park, and stand alone the shoreline, but I have no idea where would be a legal spot to do that. 

Like Mappy said, Sandy Point would be a good spot.  The northern Calvert beaches are closed, and they're real narrow.  Sandy Point is really wide and would be a great spot assuming they stay open.

Sandy Point

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1 hour ago, Mystique said:

My son is supposed to fly home to BWI at 2pm tomorrow from Mobile, with a layover in Atlanta. My ex is in the coast guard,  so rescheduling the flight wouldn't be very easy.  

We're on the eastern shore,  right by the Bay Bridge.  

Do you think I should stay on the western shore tonight? Scared the bridge might close due to wind restrictions.  Do you think I should be worried about his flight being cancelled out of Atlanta? Just no idea what to do! 

 

Check your pm

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4 minutes ago, H2O said:

This will be a significant event for many and ANY rains are welcome. Stop worrying about run to run shifts. The storm itself is all over the place

I have to wonder if we make a mistake in looking at tropical systems the same way we do snowstorms..I see the same tendencies/habits in here as in the winter tracking a snowstorm, lol Let's not forget these are two different entities, folks!

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1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

Warnings look like they replaced the Watches from what I can tell, but NWS maps have not updated yet. NHC shows warnings up to DC. 

 

 

NHC is processing them now, the updates should trickle down to weather.gov shortly.

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LOL, NAM 3k is gonna be wrong in total precip in swva within the next hour. Not sure I’m gonna put a lot of faith in it’s rain totals out here. I’ll use the wait and see model. It has  100% success rate.

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If these wind threats verify this will be the first time since Sandy we've been in the orange for tropical storm force winds.
The last time there was a widespread wind event here with similar magnitude was March 02, 2018.  Of course that one lasted a long time.

It doesn't need to last long at all though when we have full deciduous canopy!  If those winds would arrive after a few inches of rain have soaked the soil, trouble will certainly arise.  Make sure your wireless devices are charged!

I like wind but if this happens I'm rooting for strongest easterly breezes (no pun intended) as I have several dead firs that will come down into our barn if we get strong west to northwest winds.

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Isaias Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 26
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC  AL092020
1105 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

MDZ014-032315-
/O.EXA.KLWX.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KLWX.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Anne Arundel-
1105 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Annapolis

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 70 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Tuesday
          morning until Tuesday afternoon

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
      to 57 mph
        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
          force.
        - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be
          completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind
          damage.
        - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
          mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
        - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
          uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
          are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
          over.
        - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
          urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
          conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
        - Scattered power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible
        - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet
          above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
        - Window of concern: early Tuesday morning until Tuesday
          evening

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
      surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground
        - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot
          above ground.
        - PREPARE: Complete preparations for storm surge flooding,
          especially in low-lying vulnerable areas, before conditions
          become unsafe.
        - ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for
          your area.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
          immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
          farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
        - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become
          overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous
          in places where surge water covers the road.
        - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes,
          mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
        - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks,
          boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from
          moorings.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 4-8 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
      flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
          the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
          likely.
        - PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
          if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
        - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
          rescues.
        - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
          multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos,
          and ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas,
          destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while
          increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides.
          Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
        - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
          communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
          washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
          escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
          moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
          become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
          weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
          with gusty winds may still occur.
        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
          against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
          tornado situation.
        - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
        - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - http://ready.gov/hurricanes

$$

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