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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Isaías

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1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

If this would have ramped up to a cat 2/3 we could be looking at widespread damage and a very memorable event with the current speed.  Still going to be fun to track over the next 36 hours....which is welcome after a long stretch of boring weather. 

 

Meanwhile, wonder if the SW eye wall closes. However, as Mount Holly points out the transition of the storm may support its strength.  

Thecyclone will likely be undergoing an extratropical transition as it
moves from the Carolinas on Monday toward the Mid-Atlantic on
Tuesday. Important to note though, this may not actually weaken the
storm and it may even gain strength from the baroclinic support as
indicated by the latest ECMWF model run. The strong divergence aloft
will promote an enhancement of convection associated with the system
and support at least a maintenance of its strength. 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Meanwhile, wonder if the SW eye wall closes. However, as Mount Holly points out the transition of the storm may support its strength.  

Thecyclone will likely be undergoing an extratropical transition as it
moves from the Carolinas on Monday toward the Mid-Atlantic on
Tuesday. Important to note though, this may not actually weaken the
storm and it may even gain strength from the baroclinic support as
indicated by the latest ECMWF model run. The strong divergence aloft
will promote an enhancement of convection associated with the system
and support at least a maintenance of its strength. 

Yeah that wont matter much up here. Its going to be the interaction with that impressive jet streak that will make this more impactful than it would otherwise be.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Yeah that wont matter much up here. Its going to be the interaction with that impressive jet streak that will make this more impactful than it would otherwise be.

 I share your concern over winds with the wet soil.  Are you thinking 60 mph as a max for us?

Our locations seems to share the same SW NE axis. ( meaning,  I think think the winds you get I might get as well, to a degree of course )   I am to your NE on the border  of MD at Chesapeake City Maryland.

Rainfall looks very impressive. The garden I am thinking will be over after this event. 

 

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I’m in Ocean City,in Somerset Plaza..200 feet off the boardwalk, across from the Atlantic Hotel and a block up from Ripley’s.... I’ll be watching the show from here....

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1 minute ago, frd said:

 I share your concern over winds with the wet soil.  Are you thinking 60 mph as a max for us?

Our locations seems to share the same SW NE axis. ( meaning,  I think think the winds you get I might get as well, to a degree of course )   I am to your NE on the border  of MD at Chesapeake City Maryland.

Rainfall looks very impressive. The garden I am thinking will be over after this event. 

 

Yeah probably. Hoping to see max gusts of no more than 50 mph, but there is certainly the potential for higher.

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This was my take/write up on the storm this morning....

Good morning! Isaias is still a tropical storm this morning with 70mph winds. It could become a hurricane today but in the end that doesn’t really matter as the difference is only 5 mph winds. You can see the outer core of Isaias now on radar off the SE coast. Landfall should occur this evening somewhere near the SC/NC border between north Myrtle Beach and Wilmington North Carolina probably around 8pm tonight. Flooding will be the major concern down there with onshore flow until Isaias pulls inland so the spots that flood easily like Murrels Inlet etc will have to deal with that as the day progresses. The problem with this system moving north and which will make it a bit unique is that it will merge with the east coast trough swinging thru this evening and supply some added energy so that Isaias doesn’t weaken all that much even over land. So as it tracks towards Lexington Park MD and then over the southern mouth of the bay and then over around Cambridge MD, we will be contending with about a 6 hour period of very significant rains. So once again If you live in an area where it floods easily when it rains hard, make your preparations whether that means moving your vehicles to higher ground or setting up some sort of barrier to prevent water from coming into the house. Don’t drive thru flooded roads! In fact it would be best to avoid travel from about 8am tomorrow until about 5pm in the evening. Wind gusts will be strongest along and to the east of the storm. Potentially as high as 60mph around Cambridge, Easton, OC etc. Around Baltimore we may see gusts around 40. Should be a quick window of winds gusts though mainly from about 11am-3pm. Some tidal flooding on the bay is possible Tuesday morning before the wind shifts NE and drains water back out, but the storm should be moving fast enough to avoid major bay flooding. Again, the biggest issue up here will be flooding due to the rains! And any possible tree uprooting because of the soft ground due to that. Be safe, be smart and just use common sense!

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54 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Just remember what happened during Sandy, there was a temperature inversion on the left side of the track (over us) and the winds did not mix down as efficiently. You can sometimes experience that on the left side of the track inland.  If you are hunting good wind gusts, then I would argue for you to chase on the eastern shore, just remember that if Wind Warnings from M-DOT go into effect, then the bay bridge is closed down. So if you are really set on that kind of thing, you might want to re-locate east of the bay before sunset.

Is there anywhere on the western shore of the Bay that would allow a non-resident to park and get close to the water? All the Calvert county "beaches" are closed to non county residents due to covid, or they close after dark anyway. 

Ideally I drive to the bay (west side), park, and stand alone the shoreline, but I have no idea where would be a legal spot to do that. 

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3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Have heard others reference that it's high on winds normally anyway. 

The gust product definitely is. The only way wind gusts close to that are possible along the shore is if this low cranks in intensification while heading up the coast. 

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4 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

Is there anywhere on the western shore of the Bay that would allow a non-resident to park and get close to the water? All the Calvert county "beaches" are closed to non county residents due to covid, or they close after dark anyway. 

Ideally I drive to the bay (west side), park, and stand alone the shoreline, but I have no idea where would be a legal spot to do that. 

you could try Sandy Point state park, right at the bay bridge. 

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Good morning from Surfside Beach, SC. Calm now, but had some really squally weather come through earlier this morning with the outermost bands. Oceanfront here, so going to be right in the middle of things tonight. I will count on my Elkridge folks to hold things down up there while I'm gone. Looks like some interesting weather up that way.

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Just now, osfan24 said:

Good morning from Surfside Beach, SC. Calm now, but had some really squally weather come through earlier this morning with the outermost bands. Oceanfront here, so going to be right in the middle of things tonight. I will count on my Elkridge folks to hold things down up there while I'm gone. Looks like some interesting weather up that way.

Dang enjoy! Ill do my best to hold HoCo down, should be semi exciting but not expecting anything too wild. 

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20 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

Is there anywhere on the western shore of the Bay that would allow a non-resident to park and get close to the water? All the Calvert county "beaches" are closed to non county residents due to covid, or they close after dark anyway. 

Ideally I drive to the bay (west side), park, and stand alone the shoreline, but I have no idea where would be a legal spot to do that. 

Try Chesapeake beach area. That might get close to the western “eye wall” or center of circulation 

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26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The gust product definitely is. The only way wind gusts close to that are possible along the shore is if this low cranks in intensification while heading up the coast. 

Those euro wind gusts seem way, way overdone. I may end up wrong but gust near 100 on the coast? And 90’s in the middle of the bay?Can’t see that.

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Hey guys, I only occasionally post on here, normally on the RIC thread. But down here on Bald Head Island for this storm; should be a pretty good even from about 7pm-2am. Expecting sustained of roughly 50-65mph; higher gusts. Will be interesting to watch the surge back here on the creek. High tide at 8:30pm

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Showers and storms building in western NC/ Eastern Tenn preparing to ride up 81. Looks like returns are producing 1-2"/hr rate with some training starting. Hoping this feature is underdone on the models once it reaches western areas of VA and MD.  My best hope out this way...maybe a long shot potential for a stagnant band out here as the storm passes to the east.  Models have hinted but a tough feature to predict.

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My son is supposed to fly home to BWI at 2pm tomorrow from Mobile, with a layover in Atlanta. My ex is in the coast guard,  so rescheduling the flight wouldn't be very easy.  

We're on the eastern shore,  right by the Bay Bridge.  

Do you think I should stay on the western shore tonight? Scared the bridge might close due to wind restrictions.  Do you think I should be worried about his flight being cancelled out of Atlanta? Just no idea what to do! 

 

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Just remember what happened during Sandy, there was a temperature inversion on the left side of the track (over us) and the winds did not mix down as efficiently. You can sometimes experience that on the left side of the track inland.  If you are hunting good wind gusts, then I would argue for you to chase on the eastern shore, just remember that if Wind Warnings from M-DOT go into effect, then the bay bridge is closed down. So if you are really set on that kind of thing, you might want to re-locate east of the bay before sunset.

Jump on 95 and take 13 down through Delaware, good alternate route for us!  13 in general through that area is going to get some nice winds.

Stay on 13 all the way to 175 and make your way to Chincoteague but that may be shut down to non residents?

Tangier should be getting nice winds but the chance of getting there this late is probably slim to none unless you find a IDGAF skipper!  (don't do this!)

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28 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Those euro wind gusts seem way, way overdone. I may end up wrong but gust near 100 on the coast? And 90’s in the middle of the bay?Can’t see that.

Yes that's Gloria stuff there, IIRC the max wind was 104 at CBBT.  September 27, 1985 was a while ago, my memory may be failing. ;)

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30 new RAOB sites were added to the 6 hour sampling at 00z. The better sampling of the front over the continental US may explain the nudge up in precip in the NWP.

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6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The 12km NAM is vastly different than the NAM nest with rainfall distribution. Would assume the 3km would handle banding/small features better. 

Yeah the 3k now actually looks similar to the globals wrt location of the axis of heavier rainfall.

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