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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Isaías

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The best we can hope for to avoid a huge impact is that this thing will be hauling 

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The Euro is always :weenie: but I am becoming a tad concerned about the wind potential here with the somewhat inland track.. Lots of trees.

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23 minutes ago, H2O said:

The best we can hope for to avoid a huge impact is that this thing will be hauling 

 Appears the axis of heaviest rain will fall in the urban corridor, so that could present some issues, but yeah it will be accelerating, and the latest runs have it coming in a bit quicker.

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10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The Euro is always :weenie: but I am becoming a tad concerned about the wind potential here with the somewhat inland track.. Lots of trees.

This event looks tricky to me.  I feel like we could go from a breezy day with some rain showers to flash flooding and extended power outages with just a small wobble in track or intensity.  

Not to mention a 30-40 mile tick to the west might mean significant storm surge in the bay.  

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FWIW, Calvert and St. Mary's now in the TS warning.

I think warnings will expand later today west to include all county’s on the western shore.


.

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11 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Not that it means much (not what these models are meant for) - but some of the WRF variants bring the center over the WESTERN shore of the Bay. 

Not out of the question, and if it did go that way, it probably brings the threat for tornadoes to my area.

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Not out of the question, and if it did go that way, it probably brings the threat for tornadoes to my area.

There may be a risk of spinnys even today ahead of the storm (areawide). 

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31 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

There may be a risk of spinnys even today ahead of the storm (areawide). 

The tornado risk is pretty low, IMO west of the bay.

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Wow what a weenie run of the euro!  987 tropical storm right over the bay ridge.  The 3k nam is similar.  If that comes to fruition we might actually get some decent winds in dc metro. 

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6 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Wow what a weenie run of the euro!  987 tropical storm right over the bay ridge.  The 3k nam is similar.  If that comes to fruition we might actually get some decent winds in dc metro. 

Are you referring to the 00z or 06z?

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Are you referring to the 00z or 06z?

00z euro and 06z 3k nam. I think 06z euro comes out around 8 am during the summer. 

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Again - I know we are all assuming winds will underperform in most areas - but a trend I've noticed the past few runs have trended higher on the GFS and NAM at least with 925mb winds. 

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just here for the rains. not expecting much in the way of winds, gusts to maybe 40. but the rain, the glorious rain

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06z GFS OP is into Point Lookout and is a 4" - 7" event for I-95 to US 15.

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I'm going to hedge my bets and stay at my place in the Arundel Mills area for this - rather than my usual trek back to Silver Spring. Better odds for slightly higher winds, and probably a good chance for just as much rain. 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I wouldn't sleep on the wind threat, especially along the DE/MD shoreline. It won't last long, but there should be a period of strong winds. 

I wonder if the forward speed could end up contributing to a better wind threat than completely mundane as well. 

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's a damn shame this thing isn't going to be a bit slower, otherwise this could've been a really solid event.

If this would have ramped up to a cat 2/3 we could be looking at widespread damage and a very memorable event with the current speed.  Still going to be fun to track over the next 36 hours....which is welcome after a long stretch of boring weather. 

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

I wonder if the forward speed could end up contributing to a better wind threat than completely mundane as well. 

It won't hurt. Slow and up the coast is not a recipe for good wind north of VA Beach. 

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1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

If this would have ramped up to a cat 2/3 we could be looking at widespread damage and a very memorable event with the current speed.  Still going to be fun to track over the next 36 hours....which is welcome after a long stretch of boring weather. 

If it were stronger, the track would have been further east. This is a tricky setup and it's looking like we might pull something out of it.

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The Windy app has this handy “wind accumulation” map.  Effectively, it is the highest wind gust at any one point from the models.

The Euro is presented for weenie purposes only since we know that the wind products are problematic.

Low 50s at DCA, low 60s Balt inner harbor, low 70s Annapolis, low 80s Salisbury.

The GFS shaves 15-30 mph off that.  The NAM Nest has a flatter distribution in the 50s, which is still impressive.

5B061FBB-63E4-4E7C-842B-ECD86D399A8F.thumb.png.0c72641fd3515c02cea10862248fae22.png

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3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The Windy app has this handy “wind accumulation” map.  Effectively, it is the highest wind gust at any one point from the models.

The Euro is presented for weenie purposes only since we know that the wind products are problematic.

Low 50s at DCA, low 60s Balt inner harbor, low 70s Annapolis, low 80s Salisbury.

The GFS shaves 15-30 mph off that.  The NAM Nest has a flatter distribution in the 50s, which is still impressive.

5B061FBB-63E4-4E7C-842B-ECD86D399A8F.thumb.png.0c72641fd3515c02cea10862248fae22.png

what time is this showing?  Im in a trailer in ocean city and am going to get a hotel room.  Trying to decide if I should get one tonight and do late check out tomm.  Or get one tomm and request early check-in.  Dont feel like paying for 2 nights.

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9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I wonder if the forward speed could end up contributing to a better wind threat than completely mundane as well. 

Perhaps I’m not remembering correctly, but I think that is what happened with Irene in the DC Baltimore region. 

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1 minute ago, Imgoinhungry said:

what time is this showing?  Im in a trailer in ocean city and am going to get a hotel room.  Trying to decide if I should get one tonight and do late check out tomm.  Or get one tomm and request early check-in.  Dont feel like paying for 2 nights.

Here’s Ocean City from the Euro.  The times are local.

C9C876C4-90FB-43D2-8CCF-69A560E8164E.thumb.jpeg.f7786b5c75a8a22b492775ce2be5250e.jpeg

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Isn’t one reason for strong winds in a tropical storm from the precipitation?  As in the heavy rains bring down the winds from higher up?  With as much rain we are supposed to get then I can see why winds will be strong. 

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Just remember what happened during Sandy, there was a temperature inversion on the left side of the track (over us) and the winds did not mix down as efficiently. You can sometimes experience that on the left side of the track inland.  If you are hunting good wind gusts, then I would argue for you to chase on the eastern shore, just remember that if Wind Warnings from M-DOT go into effect, then the bay bridge is closed down. So if you are really set on that kind of thing, you might want to re-locate east of the bay before sunset.

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