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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Isaías

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A router bit spins counterclockwise. You move a router from left to right so that the bit tends to pull the router toward the wood. If you look at the radar it looks just like that. Like as soon as it made landfall it seemed to pull to the left.

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6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

A router bit spins counterclockwise. You move a router from left to right so that the bit tends to pull the router toward the wood. If you look at the radar it looks just like that. Like as soon as it made landfall it seemed to pull to the left.

Exactly.  Then they adjust and go back towards their heading. Its fascinating.  

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mcd1389.gif

   Mesoscale Discussion 1389
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1102 PM CDT Mon Aug 03 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina...Southeast Virginia

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 414...

   Valid 040402Z - 040600Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 414 continues.

   SUMMARY...The tornado threat will likely continue across much of
   eastern North Carolina over the next few hours. The tornado threat
   is expected to increase across southeast Virginia where a new
   tornado watch will likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...The center of Hurricane Isaias is about 20 statute
   miles southwest of Wilmington, North Carolina. Two bands of heavy
   rainfall are present around the center. The first and southern
   most-band is located in southern North Carolina near Wilmington. The
   second and northern-most band is located in eastern North Carolina
   near Morehead City, extending northwestward to about 75 miles
   inland. The Morehead City WSR-88D VWP shows very strong low-level
   shear with 0-1 km storm relative helicity near 600 m2/s2. This will
   be favorable to continue a tornado threat with the more discrete
   cells across eastern North Carolina late this evening into the early
   overnight period. 

   The tornado threat should spread into southeast Virginia as
   low-level shear and theta-e increases. A new tornado watch will be
   necessary across parts of southeast Virginia over the next few
   hours.

   ..Broyles/Hart.. 08/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
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I’m not worried about this front running bust.  I like west too.  If I get 3.5”+ I’ll be happy.  If it’s like 1.87”, even a good hour or two event will leave me bereft and jealous. Fortunately it’s rain so I won’t be rooting against other people. 

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I am in Rehoboth.  Not a drop of rain all day.  It also looks like this may be going too far west to get into any good winds here?  It seems like it wants to go up the bay.

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3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

HRRR is dirty.  Gives me like 7” but the gradient is nasty 

Says Isaias is gone by like 3pm from the CWA too

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Just now, yoda said:

Says Isaias is gone by like 3pm from the CWA too

The heavies could be gone by noon.  Speaking of. Look at radar. 

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1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

The heavies could be gone by noon.  Speaking of. Look at radar. 

Down by RIC yes, can see the heavier bands developing

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5 minutes ago, yoda said:

Down by RIC yes, can see the heavier bands developing

Getting a moderate band in RIC now. Tornado warnings down in Hampton Roads area. 

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FWIW, the Euro moved the precip shield west.  4-6" jack from Manassas to Frederick.  Some of that has fallen already.  

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Tornado Watch coming shortly for some

mcd1390.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 1390
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1241 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2020

   Areas affected...much of eastern Virginia...Maryland...Delaware

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 040541Z - 040815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes will develop north across eastern
   Virginia and the Chesapeake region, and a new watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Bands of supercells with tornado threat persist over
   eastern NC northeast of the cyclone center. Objective analysis shows
   effective SRH 300-500 m2/s2 in this area, where MLCAPE is around
   1000 J/kg. A moist air mass is already in place downstream from VA
   into the Chesapeake. Thus, the rapid increase in low-level shear is
   likely to support a continued tornado threat tonight and into the
   early morning hours.

   ..Jewell/Grams.. 08/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

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:yikes: Down in Wakefield's CWA... but still...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
221 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northeastern Northampton County in northeastern North Carolina...
  Northwestern Hertford County in northeastern North Carolina...
  Southeastern Greensville County in southeastern Virginia...
  Southwestern Southampton County in southeastern Virginia...

* Until 245 AM EDT.

* At 221 AM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
  was located near Chowan University, moving northwest at 50 mph.

  This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
           businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
           destruction is possible.

* The tornado will be near...
  Boykins and Newsoms around 235 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Milwaukee, Pendleton, Potecasi, Mapleton, Bryants Corner, Severn,
Margarettsville, Branchville, Barretts Crossroad and Shiloh.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

 

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After taking a nap and being awoken by a tropical deluge, I decided to check the latest data and scan the thread. 

One would think some of y'all are tracking a snowstorm with the hand wringing over insignificant "shifts" in the guidance near game time lol. Probably no one is going to see 8" of rain, so that aside, it all looks on track to me. Still a tad concerned about wind potential in my area.

0.92" here so far with the foreplay, most of it falling in the last hour.

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TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 415
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2020

TORNADO WATCH 415 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 PM EDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MDC003-005-009-011-015-019-025-029-035-037-039-041-045-047-510-
041600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0415.200804T0625Z-200804T1600Z/

MD
.    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANNE ARUNDEL         BALTIMORE           CALVERT
CAROLINE             CECIL               DORCHESTER
HARFORD              KENT                QUEEN ANNE`S
SOMERSET             ST. MARYS           TALBOT
WICOMICO             WORCESTER


MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BALTIMORE CITY
$$
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6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

5z HRRR is on crack.  Has better winds at DCA than they got in Wilmington.

Where do you find that?  Pivotal?  i see what looks like 30kts at 15z at DCA on TT...

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Haven't seen the word tornadoes in the zones in a long time...

National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
224 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

DCZ001-041000-
District of Columbia-
Including the city of Washington
224 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

.OVERNIGHT...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Some
thunderstorms may produce tornadoes and heavy rainfall. Lows
around 70. Southeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain
90 percent.
.TUESDAY...Tropical storm conditions expected. Showers. A chance
of thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce tornadoes and
heavy rainfall in the morning. Some thunderstorms may produce
heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. Northeast
winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph, becoming northwest
15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of
rain near 100 percent.

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mcd1391.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 1391
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0143 AM CDT Tue Aug 04 2020

   Areas affected...North Carolina/Virginia border into southeast
   Virginia

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 414...415...

   Valid 040643Z - 040815Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 414, 415 continues.

   SUMMARY...Several tornadoes are possible over the near term along
   the North Carolina/Virginia border and into southeastern Virginia.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived, arcing band of supercells remains intact,
   now crossing the NC/VA border extending from North Hampton to
   Pasquotank counties in NC as of 0640Z.

   The environment ahead of these supercells will remain favorable for
   tornadoes, with a very moist air mass already in place, and
   continued warm advection out of the southeast. The AKQ VWP shows 0-1
   SRH over 300 m2/s2, which greatly supports strong rotation.

   The advancing tropical cyclone will maintain lift with intense
   pressure falls, with additional bands of supercells possibly
   developing tonight.

   ..Jewell.. 08/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
257 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Pasquotank County in northeastern North Carolina...
  Northwestern Camden County in northeastern North Carolina...
  Northeastern Gates County in northeastern North Carolina...
  The southwestern City of Chesapeake in southeastern Virginia...
  East central Isle of Wight County in southeastern Virginia...
  The eastern City of Suffolk in southeastern Virginia...

* Until 330 AM EDT.

* At 257 AM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
  was located near Corapeake, or 8 miles northeast of Sunbury, moving
  north at 40 mph.

  This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
           businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
           destruction is possible.

* The tornado will be near...
  Corapeake around 305 AM EDT.
  Downtown Suffolk around 320 AM EDT.
  Windsor, Kings Fork and Driver around 330 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Wilroy, Horseshoe, Lummis, Nurney, Acorn Hill, Kilby, Suffolk
Airport, Deanes, Saunders and Magnolia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

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Large tornado just moved through Suffolk, looks like it's been on the ground for a while too.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

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